Obama won Oregon in 2008 by 16 points.
This year his lead is down to just 6 points, per The Oregonian:
President Barack Obama holds a relatively narrow lead of six points over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Oregon, according to a new poll conducted for The Oregonian.
Obama’s lead is considerably smaller than his margin of victory in Oregon four years ago and is a sign of how tight the presidential race has become across the nation….
Democratic officials continued to express optimism that Obama would win Oregon, which hasn’t gone for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984. But Republican activists said GOP voters in the state have shown a boost of enthusiasm that has energized Romney voters in recent weeks.
This poll is not an outlier. Other polling post-conventions has found Obama with only a single digit lead, although this is the narrowest.
Via Hot Air, Obama on defense in blue states is the new narrative:
I don’t think Romney will win Oregon, but the fact that it’s this close in such a blue state is a sign of something.
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The worry here is that, if polls like this are true, this could be what’s propping up Romney’s averages nationally in surveys like Gallup.
On the other hand, he’s still leading in the tracking polls too, so maybe not.
Discuss.
I wouldn’t worry about that so much. A ten point shift in OR is similar to just about everywhere else.
Romney’s up by about a point nationally, an 8 point swing from Obama in 08.
And that’s with a lot of polls assuming the electorate will be the same as then, and some even more optimistic for Obama.
I think OR is just part of a national shift from 08 of right about 10%.
*the other thing you have to look at is this poll has a +/-5 MOE. But it’s close to other polls.
Obama is only up 60 in the Peeps Republic of Santa Monica, California.
80% – 20%. That’s almost unheard of.
Crikey. Unbiased MSM journalists don’t stray below 90% in their support for Obama.
When a supposed pollster calls, if you answer “OBAMA”, you can be sure one of those angry elderly folks won’t show up at your door to “burn your place down”, or punch you somewhere.
The party that wants card check without a secret ballot, so they can send thugs to your house … is there any reason to answer a poll (only 9% do) or to give an honest answer? I just say NO.
Is Romney too damaged from all the Obama smear in Ohio, or have Ohio voters been especially intimidated by phone calls and door to door? They can say anything, but the thugs can follow them into the voting booth.
CAN’T</b? follow them in I meant, though I'd heard reports of them doing that … think it was Chicago in times past
A while back I picked three states considered solid blue as possible upsets- Minnesota, Maine and Oregon. These states lack large urban black communities that act as a firewall. A candidate who will win 90+% of the vote in a solid core of precincts becomes very hard to beat even if there is a preference cascade elsewhere in the electorate.
I also wonder about New Mexico. It was very much in play in 2000 and 2004 but Obama won over enough Hispanics to make it an easy win in 2008. Will it again become a swing state?
The results by county map is going to be fascinating. I suspect it will resemble 1988. Obama will carry every large city plus counties dominated by college communities or Indian reservations. The rest will be for Romney.
Oregon has a sizable Mormon population, a shade under 4%. While many Mormons are Democrats Romney’s election transcends party lines for others. It’s hard to imagine a better group of Get Out the Vote volunteers than Mormons. They tend to be polite mannerly people who dress appropriate to the occasion plus many of them have missionary experience so they are comfortable talking to strangers,
I dare to say: California.
Again: California!
The state where so much foolishness has originated: regain sanity, proportion, a reliable standard based on law and not on self esteem, California.
Statistically crazy I know. In the pocket of Progressives I know. I live here near the Capital I really do know.
I call to you to throw off the malignant, toxic Progressive yoke: California!
Thanks, Professor.
DM
I live in Oregon, and will be voting against Peter DeFazio in favor of Art Robinson for Representative. Barack Obama has really incited a number of Oregonians with his anti-religious tendencies. The Mormon population in Oregon is centered around Medford. Most Catholics are up near Salem. Both groups are pro-life, and will be up in Arms against the religious liberties infringement of this administration.
WHEW…!! Despite its Liberal bent, Oregon has maybe 16-18 blacks in the whole damn state. Portland is the whitest big city–and ‘artistically Left’–in the country. IF Oregon is “close” then this is going to be a near 1980-Blow Out for Mitt.
Read Richard Cohen’s opinion piece in today’s WaPost. He spends paragraghs weeping copious tears that The Boy King isn’t Bobby Kennedy, after all..! (Snicker, cough..)