As always, the usual caveats. We’re still roughly four weeks out from election day and there are plenty of things that can happen between now and then.
That being said, this new poll shows Romney looking strong one week after his debate with the President.
In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 49% support to Obama’s 47%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
This is the first time Romney has led the daily Swing State Survey since September 19. Until today, the president had led for 17 of the previous 19 days, and the candidates had been tied twice. This survey is based on findings from the previous seven days, with most of the responses now coming since Romney’s debate win last Wednesday night.
Ed Morrissey at HotAir gives a good breakdown of the poll.
The internals look pretty good for Romney, too, in this latest iteration. He has a 10-point lead among independents at 49/39, the latter a disastrous number for an incumbent just four weeks out from the election. Obama still leads among women, but only by five — and Romney leads among men by 11, for a +6 gender gap advantage. Obama has large leads among voters under 40 years of age (but not a majority among 30-39YOs at 49/37), while Romney wins solid majorities in all other age demos at 40 and above.
Moreover, Romney now leads by six among those “certain” of their vote, at 46/40. The soft numbers for Obama may be a real problem if he can’t dent Romney’s polling surge, as a preference cascade may wipe out the 7% that are leaning towards him now in these swing states. Romney does even better among independents in this measure, leading 43/31 among those “certain” of their choice. Romney has a 14-point lead among “certain” men (and a majority at 50/36), and only a three-point deficit among “certain” women, 41/44.
Those “certain” numbers will be key to watch over the next four weeks. If Romney can start solidifying support while Obama remains in the low 40s (or lower), the break of undecideds might be overwhelming.
All of this is encouraging, but it’s not enough.
A good debate tomorrow night by Paul Ryan will put the strength of the Republican ticket on display for a broad audience, and could help ensure that the trend towards Romney continues.
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Comments
It will be interesting if this debate’s moderator poses some ‘gotcha” questions or will take the form of Jim Lehrer’s in the first debate.
Let’s face it, Biden is so inept that the moderator might feel that he needs some “protection.” Soft pedaling Biden and hammering Ryan could spell trouble.
Hopefully it won’t turn out that way because if all things were to be equal, Ryan would destroy Biden…
I will be shocked if the “moderator” doesn’t go after Ryan and do their best to protect Biden. After Obama’s dismal performance in the last debate, the liberals are desperate to do anything they can to get him re-elected.
But, but, but the palace guards at NBC/MSNBC have recently put Rasmussen in his place – calling his work “often slop” and letting us know that NBC/WSJ spend a lot more money on polling!!!!!! This cannot stand! It is not accurate! (I’m being very sarcastic based on the reality of what was said)
Links?
Apologies, links have been added.
Jay you beat me to it!
I was just going to say, where’s the “linky love?”
I stay away from Hot Air these days – tons of great information from other sources, less opinion from Ed and Allah (and their new writers…it’s changed since Michelle Malkin sold the blog – and not for the better, IMHO. Though I still find Allah funny.)
But always gotta link back, in Conservative blogs – it’s the “right” thing to do. 😉
Being a Civil War Buff, I find this quote appropriate
Even now I can hear them cheering as I gave the order, “Forward”! I can feel their faith and trust in me and their love for our cause. I can feel the thrill of their joyous voices as they called out all along the line, “We’ll follow you, Master George. We’ll follow you, we’ll follow you.” Oh, how faithfully they kept their word, following me on, on to their death, and I, believing in the promised support, led them on, on, on. -George Pickett, July 6 1863
I prefer a mundane win to a glorious defeat.
THE “BAD NEWS” FOR PROGRESSIVES, SOCIALISTS, AND COMMUNISTS IS HAPPENING FASTER THAN ANYONE CAN APPRECIATE. The Tipping Point passed weeks ago; the Polls are either compromised, purchased, or simply lagging in accuracy.
The Presstitutes “do not get it”
The Media Whores “do not get it”
The White House “does not get it”
The Pollsters “do not get it”
The co-conspirators, fellow traitors, evil minions, hidden financial backers, armies of zombies, or general bad, STARS, idiots, etc. for BO BO “do not get it”
There is nothing, nothing, that Obama and his supporters can do to get him re-elected at this time. A “perfect storm” of suddenly revealed truths; damning historical events; patently visible falsehoods and lies; irreconcilable acts and statements and pushed us PAST THE TIPPING POINT aka “POINT OF NO RETURN TO BO BO” weeks ago.
Yes, the Presstitutes will claim that “truth is falsity and lies are truth”
Yes, so-called “POLLS” will grossly misrepresent public sentiment
Yes, there will be widespread voter fraud
Yes, vast FORTUNES shall be spent illegally and secretly to attempt to re-elect the tyrant.
Yes, there shall be OUTRAGEOUS DISTRACTIONS; UNENDING LIES; IMPOSSIBLE TO BELIEVE REPORTS (Mother gives birth to 10 at once, each child, upon leaving womb cries: “Re-elect Obama”)
NO SUCH INSANITIES; INANITIES; EFFORTS; VERITABLE “FOUNTAINS OF GOLD, OR PLUTONIUM, OR WHATEVER NEWLY PLEDGED TO BO BO”; OR OTHER EVENTS, SLANDERS, OR FICTION; NO OTHER ALEGED EVENTS; OCCURRENCES; CLAIMS; OR LIBELS WILL SUCCEED.
All that must happen for Romney & Ryan to win IS FOR WE, THE PEOPLE, TO CONTINUE OUR PRESENT CAMPAIGN: prayers, contributions, telephone support, door-to-door, comments on these blogs and more WILL JOIN WITH OUR V*O*T*E*S TO ELECT ROMNEY & RYAN. THEY WIN BIG…in less than one (1) month
WE WILL NOT QUIT A WINNING EFFORT–we just see it through to victory.
I understand that on Monday’s O’Reilly Factor, the director of the Suffolk University polling unit stated that they will no longer be polling Virginia, North Carolina and Florida, as Romney is going to win them, and they have painted those states red.
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/09/suffolk-pollster-were-not-polling-florida-virginia-or-north-carolina-anymore-because-romneys-going-to-win-them/