The consensus from the far left following this morning’s release of September jobs numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics can be described as nothing short of elation.
According to the BLS, unemployment sharply dropped from 8.1% to 7.8%. This marks the first time unemployment rate has been below 8% since the day Barack Obama was sworn into office. In fact, it is currently at exactly the same level it was in January of 2009.
A closer look at the statistics reveals an America developing under President Obama that isn’t exactly “built to last.”
First we start with the easy one, unemployment under the U-3 index: 7.8%. This is the number you’ll hear on all the major news networks and leftist publications. But this isn’t the whole story of the state of jobs in America, not by a long shot.
Hot Air has done a nice job explaining the internals of the numbers used by the BLS:
The U-6 number, which captures unemployment and underemployment as well as the marginally attached, stayed the same as in August at 14.7%. The civilian population participation rate rose a tenth of a point to 63.6%, exactly where it was in the 1982 midterm election, and only missing the 31-year low set last month.
The number of unemployed dropped 456,000 last month, while only 114,000 jobs got added. That either means that 342,000 people left the US, or they left the work force in one way or another. In the household survey, though, the number of people with jobs rose by 873,000 — a very strange outcome that makes it appear that more than one tweak has been done to previous data. (The +873K is in the seasonally adjusted number, by the way.
So how did the unemployment rate (as measured by the U3 index) drop so sharply given that only 114,000 jobs were added last month, a number that was less than that added the previous month?
Involuntary part time work. Also referred to as the “underemployed.”
James Pethokoukis of the American Enterprise Institute explains (h/t Hans Bader from Open Market) [emphasis mine]:
1. Yes, the U-3 unemployment rate fell to 7.8%, the first time it has been below 8% since January 2009. But that’s only due to a flood of 582,000 part-time jobs. As the Labor Department noted:
“The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose from 8.0 million in August to 8.6 million in September. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.“
Despite the fairy tale that many on the left are embracing as proof that we may finally be seeing the Obama recovery, the reality is quite the opposite. What we’re actually seeing is an economic stagnation far worse than anyone expected. An America where the involuntary part-time worker is now touted by our leadership as a beacon of success.
If this is now what we consider a recovery, we would have been better off just doing nothing. But don’t take my word for it, just ask the President how his recovery should be graded:
I heard a very relevant quote the other day, the source of which is disputed.
There are three types of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics.
Ain’t that the truth.
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Note: I made the same response over at redstate
“The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose from 8.0 million in August to 8.6 million in September. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.“
I don’t think this is exactly the case. In September of each year (you can go to the BLS website and look at past employment situation reports (A8 tab)), transportation and warehousing firms hire a large # of temp workers. Why? Because retail has to stock in advance of the holiday selling season. Obviously these workers would like to be full time, but the work is seasonal, by the end of October, the rush to fill warehouses is basically over, at which point these firms no longer need to worry about the huge overflow (remember something like 40% of all retail sales will occur between thanksgiving and year end). There is of course a second round of temp hiring right before Thanksgiving, at the retail end.
What I do not understand is that I thought these temp waves were taken into account in the U3 report. You can see how under U6 they don’t budge (since these temp workers are also obviously looking for FT employement)
Hope this helps
“According to the BLS, unemployment sharply dropped from 8.1% to 7.8%.”
Now, take that you ever-increasing $16 trillion in national debt! Yes, sir. We’ll take care of you in short order. So, break out the champagne, celebrate till the cows come home, and re-elect BO becuase his planning is kickin’ in gear.
“MITTMENTUM”
This is not what a real recovery looks like. We created fewer jobs in September than in August, and fewer jobs in August than in July, and we’ve lost over 600,000 manufacturing jobs since President Obama took office. If not for all the people who have simply dropped out of the labor force, the real unemployment rate would be closer to 11%. The results of President Obama’s failed policies are staggering – 23 million Americans struggling for work, nearly one in six living in poverty and 47 million people dependent on food stamps to feed themselves and their families. . . .
—-Mitt Romney, leader
I suspect if John Q is out of work and can’t find a job these numbers aren’t going to impress him.
We’ll find out after November what the actuals really were. In the meantime reality is going to trump this piece of fiction.
When Rick Perry was running against Bill White for Governor in 2010, Perry touted job creation in Texas. Bill White and his Democrat cronies made the case that these are all low-paying and part-time jobs. In the Democrats’ skewed reality, those are the only jobs Republicans create. We heard the same thing about Bush’s job creation during 2004.
Fast forward to 2009 until today, any job created by Obama and his ilk is assumed to be a great, high-paying job. To them, “non-farm” is the same as high-tech, corner-office, expense-account, company-car jobs.
The fuc*ing double standard is so evident that it has practically disappeared into the guise of normalcy. Romney, Sununu, Rush, Hannity, and everyone in the blogosphere needs to pound the truth of this jobs report until it comes out the ears of Americans!
So, let’s get this straight. The left loves nuance, wonkishness and discussions that go below the surface, beyond the headline or sound byte. Yes, they are sooooooo intellectual.
Yet, they glam onto the bare surface of the job report, never diving into the depths where those pesky details (the stuff of which ‘facts’ are made) to find out the truth. The truth that tells us almost a half-million people were driven to part-time work.
The president says were too far along to turn back now. He’s right. We’re pretty damn close, but those blue skies he sees ahead have this nasty precipice under them.
The BLS (aka Obama campaign) jumped the shark on this one. They’ve elevated the discussion, and facts are leaking through the MSM firewall.
Maybe make an ad like Bannon’s: show baggers, checkers, and Walmart greeters who once held full-time productive jobs.
Personal “new record” for me last night: Chevron station I usually go to; 91 Octane; debit card; $75 “fill up” for my “economy car”. I came home and wrote this:
“CHANGING EXPECTATIONS”
It was “kinda unexpected”
To pay $5 bucks at the pump,
And you could not give me 50,
To excuse this latest “jump”
But, of course, the price of “energy”
To Obama does not matter,
So we know there’s no inflation,
Nor any limit he won’t shatter.
It was “kinda unexpected”
To see our countrymen defiled
In that “friendly place” called Libya
Where the natives burned AND smiled.
But then, “The Won” said clearly,
That Islam was THE FUTURE TO BE
So we can only blame ourselves,
For the horrors of Benghazi.
It was “kinda unexpected”
To see BO wilt before our eyes,
Before the “verbal swords” were crossed,
He was TALKING TRASH and LIES.
But, of course, it took just minutes,
For the “Presstitutes” to find,
That Romney was unfairly favored
With a rather brilliant mind.
We refuse more “unexpecteds”
We reject “more of the same”.
And we sure as h#ll aren’t willing
To yield our freedoms in “his” name.
So, the White House “Current Occupants”
Had better start to pack.
‘Cause we’re voting in “New Management”
AND WE NEVER WILL LOOK BACK.
* My local Chevron; tonight; 91 Octane; credit card.
[And you can stuff your “excuses” in your teleprompter.]
ROMNEY & RYAN WIN BIG….IN ONE MONTH
I wonder if the growth in P/T jobs is people holding down 2 or more – taking whatever they can get, where-ever they can get it.
And P/T means the companies don’t have to pay healthcare, which is going to be a huge jump in costs.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444223104578038623709703516.html?mod=rss_opinion_main
Take-away…
“Mr. Obama is promising four more years of the same policies he’s pursued in his first term, except that this time he says he really will raise taxes immediately in 2013. Anyone who wants the same job creation should vote for him.”
It can ONLY get worse in his second term. For reasons of pure cause and effect.
I wasnt surprised to see the manufactured changein rate. Are things that much better? No.
I wasnt surprised because of three things. I posted in tip line an aticle by Robert Reich (pre debate) that basically framed our thinking: Dont focus on debate. Focus on the Jbs report. That the guy has info the public doesnt is fairly obvious.
Then we read late last week that suddenly BLS had found something like 368K peole working that had somehow fallen thru the crack. No we are suspicious.
And viola. Gallup has unemployment pegged at 7.8% for the month. Before the Friday release mind you.
And why would Gallup report anything differently + or – seasonal adjustments. Who do we think does the household surveys for the Labor Department? A reasonable man would say probably Gallup.
James does great Economic reserch and reporting.
One of his best is here. Here is what in a simple way explains the employment situation in ano nonsense way.
See the area between the lines? Thats unemployment folks.
http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/08/the-obama-recovery-isnt-just-worse-than-the-reagan-recovery-but-also-worse-than-the-teddy-roosevelt-and-grover-cleveland-recoveries/080612recovery1-2/
I read that Gallup’s adjusted numbers for September stayed steady at 8.1, conflicting with the BLS numbers. here:
“On a seasonally adjusted basis, Gallup says the September unemployment rate was 8.1%, the same as the August rate.”
http://247wallst.com/2012/10/04/unemployment-rate-falls-gallup/
Concerning the U-3…
This is calculated by two surveys:
One third of employers are surveyed and their reports are extrapolated out to the other two thirds. That’s a huge survey, so the +/- margin of error is quite low and the number reliable. The report claimed a dismal 14,000 new hires.
The other is the household survey, calling individual homes and asking who got hired. The reported number from this survey was 847,000 new hires. However, in this survey the sample is so incredibly small that the margin of error is +/- 400,000!
This is like a poll that says a politician’s approval rating is 60% with a margin of error of 30 pts! In other words, it’s like saying that politician’s approval rating is, ohhhh, somewhere between 30% and 90%. Anyone could have guessed that without the trouble of a poll. It tells us nothing.
No evidence has emerged indicating stat manipulation, but a +/- of 400,000 makes for meaningless numbers in my book.
Where is there a ten year by month comparison of the number of jobs the household survey records as added to the economy? Seems to me the number 582k part time jobs added is extraordinary. Over lay those state with the economic growth in those same periods and I believe we’d see a problem. Currently our 1.3% rate of growth does not support the 582K number.
I found this site yesterday and the charts were really helpful in understanding what an outlier the report really is…
http://www.suitablyflip.com/suitably_flip/2012/10/jobs.html
Note the observation he made about it:
“In the last 29 years, we’ve had 22 quarters of growth exceeding 5%. And never did the household job creation rate hit the ostensible peak we just experienced, with growth hovering in the 1-2% range.”
Thanks! Excellent info.
Correction: The CES (employer survey) has a MOE of 100,000, which is not low as I indicated. I made an assumption that based on 1 of every 3 being surveyed, the moe would have to be low.
So our part time Prexy spent his first term golfing ,on vacation ,schmoozing with the Hoi Poi & various Celebs. As time went on increasing his campaigning ,fund raising ,generally making himself available to his adoring throngs. In the main making his actual job of Prexy part time , as he has every other job he has had. Its no wonder his watch will be noted as creating part time work.
The only thing that makes sense to me is the household survey is wrong. It is a phone call survey of 60,000 households. There are 115 million households in the US. That is 0.05% of households.
Whether some mole in the BLS managed to manipulate who was called or not (seems probable given the leadership of the free world is on the line, and given Obama’s multiple lies and lawbreaking) … it is still a very unreliable statistic. The 114,000 number counts something like half of actual payrolls. That number indicates unemployment went up.
As ALL the experts say (except Obama’s hacks), there is nothing in the other real numbers to indicate this number is real. Jack Welch was CEO of GE … he wouldn’t directly say they lied, he just kept repeating how convenient it was, a huge unexplained drop coming out of this lawless administration, a month before the election. It’s the Chicago way.
There are at least two BLS advisors who are Obama donors, and I don’t mean $20. Several thousands each to Obama and to the DNC historically.
“If all you need is a part time job to survive, vote Obama 2012”
Hmmmmm – lessee – I’ve got a part-time job.
And a part-time business.
And I’m surviving.
And I’m voting for Romney.
Where did I go wrong?
/sarc (do I really need to?)
New Dos Equis Man take on Obama vote.
I don’t always double down on failure, but when I do, I vote Obama.
Stay jobless, my friends.
(Click HERE for the fun, new graphic).
How Allen West handled CNBC on this issue: youtube video.