PPP finds Todd Akin still leads Claire McCaskill, and that the numbers have not changed much since the controversy broke:
Missouri voters strongly disagree with the comments Todd Akin made about abortion over the weekend, but it hasn’t moved the numbers a whole lot in the Senate race. Akin leads Claire McCaskill by a single point, 44-43. That’s basically identical to our last poll of the contest in late May, which found Akin ahead by a 45-44 spread.
PPP finds that Akin’s negatives are high, but people are voting along party lines:
Akin has certainly been damaged by this whole thing- a Survey USA poll last week showed him up by 11 points in the wake of his primary victory. But he’s by no means out of it- it looks like Missouri’s increasing Republican lean over the last few years would give him a decent chance at victory in spite of this major controversy.
This poll was conducted between 6 and 9 PM central time tonight.
Maybe Akin could win Missouri, but this was just a flash poll so it’s hard to read too much into it.
If I were a cynic, I might suggest that PPP — a Democratic pollster — did the flash poll knowing it was too soon for the effect of the controversy to make its way into the electorate in the hope of keeping Akin’s hope alive before he makes his decision overnight whether to step aside.
But I’m not a cynic, no way, no how.
Update: As pointed out in the comments and also by John McCormack on Twitter, PPP only read Akin’s statement to the respondents after they answered the question as to preference, which would tend to help Akin in the PPP poll. Okay, now I’m a cynic.
Update 8-21-2012: Ace, CORRECTED PPP Numbers for Missouri:
Here are the real numbers: If turnout in November matches 2008 (it won’t): McCaskill 49.25% Akin 39% (this is a D+6 turnout model)
If turnout in November is even, an incredible feat for the GOP considering heavy turnout in St Louis and Kansas City during an election year: McCaskill 47% Akin 40%.
If turnout in November matches the best we have ever seen in the state (R+3 during 2010): McCaskill 45% Akin 41%.
DONATE
Donations tax deductible
to the full extent allowed by law.
Comments
Here is a poll from Survey USA:
In Missouri: 54% Call For Akin to Quit Bid for U.S. Senate; 76% Do Not Share His Views on Rape and Abortion —
Survey USA played audio of Akin’s comment then asked questions. PPP read Akin’s statement after doing the head-to-head. Liberals on my timeline were thrilled with PPP’s results – tells us all we need to know.
Updated with Stacy McCain’s objectively doomed analysis and another appropriate clip…
If you are smart Todd Akin, you will do the right thing.
CAC as Ace of Spades looks critically at that PPP poll that had Akin up. It is a trap. Akin is dead man walking.
People at the lefty site I belong to are dropping their pretense of indignation. They’re no longer trying to hide their glee. They are ecstatic.
They’re licking their chops at the thought of going national with Akin, and they’re hoping to link Paul Ryan to him.
Just sayin’.
Democrats want him to stay in. They are indeed thrilled, because with so many doing the euphemism thing and saying it’s a “misspeak” rather than what it was — the accurate blurting out of an idiotic belief, that gives Democrats the opportunity to smear other pro-life (but not “misspeaking”) Republicans.
Just had a scary thought… If Akin does withdrawal from the race, and the replacement candidate still loses to McCaskill, does anyone not think Claire and her political circle will leverage a second term as United States Senator into a Presidential run in 2016?
I know that’s a bunch of hypotheticals, but that’s just the right type of narrative the Decmorats will be looking for in 2016. As a party they’re going to double down on the politics of grievance to defeat Romney.
Let’s not completely panic, shall we?
Troll poll.
I’ve had a change of view about this recently. I think Akin will bow out tomorrow. We’re going to get a better candidate. The Left is laughing too soon.
I must admit, the GOP doing a “Torricelli” and winning the seat would be a delicious irony.
Coulter just wrote that Steelman should get the nod (IHO). Palin endorsed Steelman could jazz up the base with Palin doing some major stumping. If that happened, and Steelman won, Palin would be collecting some serious IOUs.
That would be a “we built (won) this moment” to shove right back into Obama’s face!!!!
Yes it would be. Political Akido.
Steelman finished third in the primary, no way she gets the nod over Brunner. It was a close third, but it’s still last place.
I think the reason other candidates were immediately being discusses is to respect Akin’s primary win enough not to give it to one of those he defeated. The state auditor Tom Reich is being talked about, as well as Bond and Talent.
Coulter Article: Pick Steelman
http://conservatives4palin.com/2012/08/ann-coulter-if-akin-loves-his-country-he-will-step-aside.html
I am not sure that this will matter much in a November, people don’t care that much about Abortion unless they are Republicans or socially conservative. The Republicans get everyone who wants low taxes and those who really hate abortion That means that push come to shove an economic liberal, but social liberal will vote conservative if they believe abortion is on the ballet.
The issue splits the Dem vote, its stupid to even bring it up, voters are not going to think he’s pro rape, but economic liberals + social conservative who see economic liberalism as part of their social mission will see the Claire as pro-abortion and they will never vote for that. Its why Goldwater lost and Reagan won. Gold water was more a libertarian than a full conservative. If you run on low taxes + no abortion + no gay marriage you win. Its a simple winning recipe.
Right now its big but in a couple of weeks Claire will be right back where she was.
They care. Wavering PUMAs and independent women who are upset about economic issues and were willing to set aside their views on social issues may think twice. Abortion, er “women’s health is at stake, eeek!” is how Democrats have hooked women’s votes in the many households in which the guys vote Republican and the women vote Democrat.
the problem with your analysis, is that very few people including women vote FOR abortion. Women are more against abortion than men. Many times woman will vote AGAINST abortion. There’s this idea that abortion is wildly popular among women, its not. No one will vote for it, unless they plan on using it themselves. If you try to take away their birth control they will vote for it, but deep down women judge themselves and each other far more harshly than men do, and abortion is still deeply shameful for almost any woman. I know this is not very sexy, they are always trying to get to you vote your wallet as primary motivator, but again things like justice and protecting families will always come up on top.
Those that do vote on abortion over economic issues won’t vote for you to begin with. As a conservative, except in very liberal states You will always lose more votes going after pro-economy, anti-life then you would by going for anti-economy, pro-life. Its not even close. No one dislikes someone for being a family man or woman, and wanting to encourage that among the general populace is generally considered an ideal. People don’t want politicians that will hurt their families. THat’s how Bill Clinton got reelected in 96, he basically said he was the architect of the roaring economy and getting rid of him will hurt everyone who depends on it, despite that he was a cad.
Now more than any time in recent history families are larger and tighter than ever before, with graduates coming home living under their parents roof. Most voters live in some kind of nuclear family context. Now many of these voters are not thinking about killing babies, they are thinking of making them as soon as they can get a job to support them. But we are in a real rut as of late. We have a great deal number of social and economic issues that seem separate, but they are not. People get jobs to support themselves and their families, not because they like working. If you wrap the whole campaign connecting the economic and social issues and show how they come together people will believe in it and vote for it. Thats why as much as they scream about Atkin wanting rape, its only going to bounce back and bite them. they are advocating the shameful and indefensible. Atkin for whatever dumb gaff he is made is not going to lose on this point.
It could cost us Scott Brown’s seat (sorry we need it to over come Obamacare). And Akin could definitely lose in Missouri. Do I need to bring out that clip of Michael in Cuba seeing the captain of the guard killed by some rebels?
If Atkin goes down, we hand the election to Claire. There’s no one else at this point who can come in and win. So just like you only have Mitt, you only have Atkin if you want to win.
He could possibly recover and win, but the risk is just too great. There is more at stake here than a single Senate seat – control over the Senate could hinge on it. And Akin’s stupidity is the perfect excuse for the media to bring out the “war on women” meme again for another try – anything to avoid talking debt, deficit, budget, jobs, economy, or Obama’s record of failure.
Troll poll.
This will affect every other close race in the country, its just a pandora’s box if he stays in, just google what else he’s said in the past, Claire Bear and the demonrats have a perfect opening to bash every repub with this nonsense, from the top all the way down.
I have many independent friends, most of them are not pro-life and most of them are willing to not consider social issues, just like in 2010, when they voted for all repubs, however what Akins said is way beyond what they can ignore. Any decent repub will do, but they will not vote for anyone saying such insane things, no doubt Claire Bear knew this and so spent money campaigning for Akin.
The man needs to resign and by today!
One of the top stories at HuffPo right now is that, if elected, the GOP is going to call for a constitutional ban on abortion. Once the Akin story is gone off of the top, the abortion story will probably take its place. I am a newbie to following elections. Is this always a part of our platform or is this something new? I am highly concerned about the traction they are getting on these women’s issues.
I’m a relative newbie, dems do this all the time, I was still a dem back in 2006, I rarely voted in midterms, but when they brought out that tactic, I remember it did cause me to go vote for my first midterm, against repubs.
They do work, especially when you have statements Akin made, in a nice little soundbite; even people who were willing to put aside any social issues, his statements just get worse over time and will be used as a political weapon against all repubs.
You know they are going to ask RR for a comment on the abortion question. If what you said is true for this election, their response answer could make or break us.
well, RR to me, as a pro-choice voter, seem pretty sane, I wasn’t that much of a fan of Romney, I’m willing to vote for a potted tree if that the ABO choice, but I do like Ryan, I trust him.
The problem is, when an election is this close, and I say this because I have friends who are pro-choice, who did vote for repubs in 2010, for many of them first time repub voters, what Akins said will used in every single attack against every single repub, Scott Brown, etc, and most people do not follow politics and this Akin’s stuff will reinforce what they think repubs stand for, forget the fiscal conservative which they like, dems will pound into them repubs hate women, and really what Akins said about women’s reproductive systems shutting down in rape, how can that possibly be spun away? The man actually believes it!
And with a LSM 100% on the dem side, this will be there 24/7, he should have resigned immediately, now the story will continue on, and another thing, I hate to say it, but the man looks like the stereotypical caricuture of “women-hating repubs”, as I just heard some of friends said.
No one cares if someone is pro-life, Nikki Haley is, Palin is, Scott Walker is, etc etc etc, but they are very adroit are expressing themselve without saying the insanity that Akins spewed out. Even Ron Paul is disgusted at Akin’s statements.
The man needs to resign and fast.
[…] Republicans have a low tolerance for sheer political stupidity. No matter what current polls say, Akin needs to […]
OMG, this is just getting worse, the man is a complete idiot. Now he’s cutting/running ads for himself in MO.
Have to hand it to Claire Bear for spending her 2 million correctly on this ego-manical idiot in the repub primaries. What a disaster. And sorry,but this man is creepy, especially after what he said, he just sends out the creep vibe.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=R57E3S8RO7A
[…] to 43%, following the toxic meltdown of Akin in the wake of his rape comments. However, much like Legal Insurrection, count me in the cynic category as well. Maybe Akin could win Missouri, but this was just a flash […]
PPP, which long oversamples dems, now is oversampling repubs when it comes to Akins, that itself should set off massive bells.
==============================
PPP starts oversampling Republicans
“Missouri voters strongly disagree with the comments Todd Akin made about abortion over the weekend, but it hasn’t moved the numbers a whole lot in the Senate race. Akin leads Claire McCaskill by a single point, 44-43. That’s basically identical to our last poll of the contest in late May, which found Akin ahead by a 45-44 spread.”
Gee, I wonder why all of a sudden PPP is oversampling repubs? especially for this Akin’s poll.
<b.Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%
Oh no. He cut an apology ad last night. This is a bad sign.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R57E3S8RO7A&feature=player_embedded
Akin may be using today to see if reaction to his latest mea culpa vid might repel the tide, that if it doesn’t he’ll pull out by deadline this afternoon. Drowning man, grasping, straws, etc.
Meanwhile, McCaskill and the DNC are compiling a couple thousand videos of national GOP leaders, media pundits, and political consultants who’ve publicly called for Akin to pull out of the race, to be made into campaign ads run constantly until November 6th.
And so it begins, the great distraction aided and abetted by…bloggers.
Thus the column in the National Catholic Reporter characterizing Mr. Ryan as a “champion of dissent” regarding the church’s social teaching. Or the headline at the website Jezebel, “Badass Nun Says Paul Ryan is a Bad Catholic.” When this sort of thing seeps into the mainstream, it takes the form of the recent article in the Washington Post that found moral parallels between the two vice-presidential candidates: Mr. Ryan is a dissenter from “social justice,” while Vice President Joe Biden, also Catholic, dissents on issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443989204577601273551443082.html?mod=rss_opinion_main
If you guys can’t even club McCaskill over the partial birth abortion issue because of Akin, then how are you going to defend Ryan on the Social Justice angle? Rubes…read the whole article as you might as well at least hit the ground running to the issue instead of forming a circular firing squad on another GOP candidate. Arrrrgh!
I think the PPP poll is bogus. For all the people who were working hard yesterday without internet access, they did not really learn that Akin’s own Republican party decided early Monday morning to destroy his campaign until they turned on the evening news last night.
It obviously got a lot air time locally. The newscasts made sure the viewers knew that Karl Rove’s Pac cancelled advertising in the race; that several Republican senators grandstanded asked Akin to withdraw, etc. The newscasts also wanted viewers to know that Republicans hate Akin more than Democrats. McCaskill was shown saying Akin won the primary fair and square and it would be unfair and undemocratic for the Republican bullies (my word not hers, but she did mention Karl Rove by name in the clip) to force him off the ticket.
Akin sent out a tweet last night seeking donations to see how much support he has. That was his equivalent of a flash poll. I doubt he got much money.
He raised the least amount of money in the primaries. His strategy was to rely on national financial support from the NRSC, Crossroads, etc. to get him over the finish line in November if he won the primary. Without that support, he can not respond to all the negative ads Democrats will throw at him 2-3 weeks before the election.
As I said yesterday, his political career is already over. His only consideration now is does he stay in the race and hand victory to McCaskill as a sort of revenge for the dispicable way Republicans treated him.
My first reaction to Akin’s comment was that I couldn’t believe we had such a stupid person on the Republican side. I also wondered if many other congressmen were as stupid as Akin. But then I wondered if anyone asked Akin where he acquired such a view about rape. Maybe someone in his past, a teacher, for example, led him to such a thing.
Post-Akin, I propose a Sir Bedevere litmus test for all GOP candidates; just demonstrate a basic understanding and acceptance of general post-Enlightenment scientific knowledge.
“This new learning amazes me Sir Bedevere. Explain again how sheep’s bladders may be employed to prevent earthquakes.”
Going forward, we really need to do a better job of weeding out candidates inclined to go on television and spew medievalism all over themselves and the rest of the party.
http://senatorjohnblutarsky.blogspot.com/2012/08/post-akin-lets-have-sir-bedevere-litmus.html
Missouri had an open primary. The d-cRAT socialist party, and especially the TAX CHEAT OBOZO-suck-up mccaskill campaign, encouraged their puppets to vote for Akin, since mccaskill was a lock, and AKin was considered the easiest to defeat. According to an article on today’s Drudge Report, the d-cRAT socialists spent $1.5 MILLION to help Akin win.
Add to this Akin’s idiotic remarks and opinions, no rational person should need any further reasons why Akin MUST STEP DOWN so a viable candidate can run against mccaskill.
[…] “If I were a cynic, I might suggest that PPP — a Democratic pollster – did the flash poll knowing it was too soon for the effect of the controversy to make its way into the electorate in the hope of keeping Akin’s hope alive before he makes his decision overnight whether to step aside,” wrote William Jacobson of the conservative Legal Insurrection blog. […]