Worst Prediction

Erik D. Kain channeling David Frum in Forbes Magazine, March 10, 2011, Is Wisconsin the Real Republican Waterloo? (italics in original):

After the Affordable Care Act was passed in 2010, conservative writer David Frum called the passage of the bill the GOP’s “Waterloo” in reference to Napoleon Bonaparte’s crushing defeat at the hands of the Duke of Wellington. This earned him the ire of his fellow conservatives and pushed him further outside the conservative movement.

But David was wrong. If anything, the healthcare reform victory was the GOP’s Siege of Acre. Wisconsin is shaping up to be the real Waterloo….

And now conservatives have chosen public-sector workers and teachers as their hill to die on….

Republicans have a long history of union-busting and anti-labor rhetoric, but taking on teachers and cops is a big mistake. This blatant effort to weaken the Democratic party will have precisely the opposite effect….

This is the Democrats chance to recapture that narrative, to turn the discussion back to the dignity of the middle class, to the importance of policies that do not simply push power and capital ever upward. This is the Republican’s Waterloo….

This is the moment that Waterloo has begun, and the Republican party has sealed their own fate. Nothing they could have done could have roused the Democratic base the way this vote in Wisconsin has. I think they’ve bitten off much more than they can chew. This is the beginning of the end. Nor did Republicans need to take such drastic steps. They had the momentum and could have run on their budget concerns into 2012. They didn’t need to take on labor, but they did, and whatever minor victory Scott Walker has made now will be overshadowed by later defeats.

Also – perhaps Pearl Harbor is a better analogy.

Best Prediction

Some guy on his personal weblog, April 16, 2011, Scott Walker Will Not Be Recalled And Will Be A Top Contender For VP:

Here’s why.  Despite all the vitriol from the unions and Democrats, Walker is getting Wisconsin’s fiscal house in order….

A recall election in Wisconsin next spring [2012], with all the union hysteria and name calling contrasted with a record of fiscal responsibility, may be just what Walker needs.  And it will work to the advantage of the national GOP, which will be able to contrast Obama’s base with the needs of the country.

And again on August 11, 2011, Dear WI Dems, please keep doing the same thing over and over, while expecting different results:

They just can’t help themselves.  Despite throwing everything the had at it, the Wisconsin Democrat/Union coalition lost the Prosser/Kloppenburg statewide election, and then failed to pick up the three seats needed to take control of the state Senate.  Having lost, Democrats declared victory.

Democrats have convinced themselves that almost winning is the same as winning.  It’s like Little League T-ball; every time Democrats lose in Wisconsin they give themselves a loud round of applause and a pat on the back because they tried.

Walker will win the recall, but more important, it will set a nice stage for the 2012 presidential election with the relative good fortune of a business friendly conservative Republican administration in Wisconsin contrasted with the dismal performance of Obama and national Democrats.

A victory by Walker after Democrats and the unions once again throw everything they have into the race will have another upside.  It will set Walker up as a potential Vice Presidential nominee, someone from the heartland who has taken the necessary steps to turn his state around and who withstood the onslaught.

Predictions like those are why that guy with his personal weblog will never make it big.