Worst Prediction
Erik D. Kain channeling David Frum in Forbes Magazine, March 10, 2011, Is Wisconsin the Real Republican Waterloo? (italics in original):
After the Affordable Care Act was passed in 2010, conservative writer David Frum called the passage of the bill the GOP’s “Waterloo” in reference to Napoleon Bonaparte’s crushing defeat at the hands of the Duke of Wellington. This earned him the ire of his fellow conservatives and pushed him further outside the conservative movement.
But David was wrong. If anything, the healthcare reform victory was the GOP’s Siege of Acre. Wisconsin is shaping up to be the real Waterloo….
And now conservatives have chosen public-sector workers and teachers as their hill to die on….
Republicans have a long history of union-busting and anti-labor rhetoric, but taking on teachers and cops is a big mistake. This blatant effort to weaken the Democratic party will have precisely the opposite effect….
This is the Democrats chance to recapture that narrative, to turn the discussion back to the dignity of the middle class, to the importance of policies that do not simply push power and capital ever upward. This is the Republican’s Waterloo….
This is the moment that Waterloo has begun, and the Republican party has sealed their own fate. Nothing they could have done could have roused the Democratic base the way this vote in Wisconsin has. I think they’ve bitten off much more than they can chew. This is the beginning of the end. Nor did Republicans need to take such drastic steps. They had the momentum and could have run on their budget concerns into 2012. They didn’t need to take on labor, but they did, and whatever minor victory Scott Walker has made now will be overshadowed by later defeats.
Also – perhaps Pearl Harbor is a better analogy.
Best Prediction
Some guy on his personal weblog, April 16, 2011, Scott Walker Will Not Be Recalled And Will Be A Top Contender For VP:
Here’s why. Despite all the vitriol from the unions and Democrats, Walker is getting Wisconsin’s fiscal house in order….
A recall election in Wisconsin next spring [2012], with all the union hysteria and name calling contrasted with a record of fiscal responsibility, may be just what Walker needs. And it will work to the advantage of the national GOP, which will be able to contrast Obama’s base with the needs of the country.
And again on August 11, 2011, Dear WI Dems, please keep doing the same thing over and over, while expecting different results:
They just can’t help themselves. Despite throwing everything the had at it, the Wisconsin Democrat/Union coalition lost the Prosser/Kloppenburg statewide election, and then failed to pick up the three seats needed to take control of the state Senate. Having lost, Democrats declared victory.
Democrats have convinced themselves that almost winning is the same as winning. It’s like Little League T-ball; every time Democrats lose in Wisconsin they give themselves a loud round of applause and a pat on the back because they tried.
Walker will win the recall, but more important, it will set a nice stage for the 2012 presidential election with the relative good fortune of a business friendly conservative Republican administration in Wisconsin contrasted with the dismal performance of Obama and national Democrats.
A victory by Walker after Democrats and the unions once again throw everything they have into the race will have another upside. It will set Walker up as a potential Vice Presidential nominee, someone from the heartland who has taken the necessary steps to turn his state around and who withstood the onslaught.
Predictions like those are why that guy with his personal weblog will never make it big.
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Comments
Professor, your August, 2011 entry is spot on; their playbook was written in the 1930s. As Rush points out, they’re stuck on stupid. We have to hope that they keep being stuck in their time warp for this and the 2014 election cycle.
Now, we have to keep the GOP’s feet in the fire. Our assist to them in November must never be construed (or allowed to be construed) as a vote of confidence.
We need to make them earn our votes!
Man, I wish I could find that ‘some guy’s’ blog and read more of his stuff. He sounds brilliant!
Now izz zee time in Vizconzin ven vee dance!
One of my favs was by our own (lately) full throat support troll…
He/she/it predicted another recall, right after this one, if they lost.
Does anyone think the people of Wish-consin would put up with that for a minute?
Russ Feingold was whining last week that they can only recall Walker once (per term).
“… but taking on teachers and cops is a big mistake. This blatant effort to weaken the Democratic party will have precisely the opposite effect.”
Maybe this would’ve been true quite some time ago.
But you take a cop married to a teacher … and they’ve got some pretty cushy benefits and quite a bit of time off, and their two salaries together can get them close to the threshold that many Democrats have been calling “rich” in recent years.
They also look at retiring earlier than many in the private sector.
The fact that nearly 40% of union households backed Scott Walker says it all.
It all flys in the face of what Mr. Kain is saying.
I’ll wager many “pro-union” voters for Walker have real-world jobs, such as manufacturing or transportation, and not gummint union jobs. Many public sector unions have had to adapt or die, which in their case, was the danger of cushy contracts killing their host, the company. To those folks, many of whom cover healthcare and pension costs, gold-plated public sector union members’ demands also look woefully out-of-touch.
“I’ll wager many “pro-union” voters for Walker have real-world jobs, such as manufacturing or transportation, and not gummint union jobs.”
But also, as I recall, WI was getting to the point where they would have to layoff buckets-full of teachers because they were spending too much.
After the Walker reforms there were a bunch of “gummint” union members who
a) still had jobs
b) didn’t have to pay union dues
I bet some of them voted for Walker.
True… but lost in all this is the difference between the two. In most unionized industries, unions have either outlived their usefulness, killed their host through intransigence or adapted. That is market-driven. Until public sector unions are faced with this same type of economic Darwinism, they will remain a vestige of the 1950s. Absent wholesale privatizing of municipal services, it will take politicians with guts and backbone, backed by outraged taxpayers to force a semblance of economic reality on these unions and their Democrat enablers.
“Many public sector unions have had to adapt or die, …”
I think you mean “private sector” there.
I totally agree. I’m a member of a government public employee union who argues quite frequently with his coworkers about all this. They understand the concept of “sustainability” when it comes to the environment, but not when it comes to fiscal matters.
You guys are also making the assumption that all people in unions are Democrats.
We are not.
That 40% number is probably the number of Republican union members.
I was thinking about that, too. I remember reading quite some time ago that about 40% of union households are Republican and they’re not happy about their dues going to Dem politicians who don’t share their values.
Anyway, there are a few videos out their of MSNBC last night. Just watched one with Lawrence O’Donnell and a few guests. It’s so unintentionally funny. They are all in agreement that it was a good night for Obama.
Let’s hope Obama has a great night on election day this November!
They are touting these exit polls … the same exit polls everyone else is dismissing as worthless rubbish … and gloating that they show Obama up over Romney.
There is Kool-Aid and then there is Kool-Aid. Wow.
I used a Supreme Court case loophole and my dues money no longer goes to political campaigns. I’m a pariah to the union, but I don’t give a shit.
No assumption, here. Under the outdated Railway Labor Act many of those in the transportation industries – including my wife – will be compelled to be in a union, if their CBA has chosen representation, regardless of where you live. So, yes… you have many unwilling union members acting as a cash cow for union thugs and their Democratic allies. And as I mention below, “Beck” offers no real-world relief from this.
Tell your wife to look into Financial Core. I pay my dues, but they deduct the portion that would go toward political campaigns.
And it comes straight from Beck v. CWA
I forget: Financial Core only applies to my particular union. But I would have your wife check into this site and find out how she can legally stop paying the portion of her dues that goes to political campaigns.
http://www.unionfacts.com/
Also, my understanding was that Walker had specifically not taken on the cops and firemen, and that he was therefore being accused of corruption, on the (false) assumption that they had supported him in 2010 (they didn’t) and this was their reward.
You are correct. Firemen and policemen were exempted from Walker’s reforms. Walker wisely understood that to include those professions would be a bridge too far – and that those folks might engage in job actions which would endanger the populace.
Walker’s reforms saved the city of Milwaukee over $10 million. Barrett didn’t refuse the money.
Folks in northeast Wisconsin where I live are quite happy today. Lots of people buying booze!
OK, who wants to chip in for participation trophies for Barrett and the union goons? Maybe something like this.
Na Na Hey Hey Kiss the Left Goodbye*
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZkYGcz1DgI&feature=related
*It’s a nice thought, but the Left will always be with us. The best we can ever do is contain it,
It’s funny how the MSM and Democrats like to combine Public sector and Private sector unions in their pro-union rhetoric. The two, while sharing many similarities are still two vastly different beasts.
My wife is an unwilling union member, compelled under the Railway Labor Act, though we live in a Free (right to work) state. As such, her dues are used to further political activity to which she objects, and her only recourse is under Beck (Beck v. Communications Workers of America), which places a person in a weird middle ground of union membership.
However, private sector unions have had to give some ground and change work rules, because unlike public sector unions, the companies in which private sector unions work, can seek bankruptcy protection or worse, can go out of business. The marketplace forces are still at work, as we see with the America Airlines bankruptcy. Also, Boeing is now building factories in right-to-work states, like South Carolina. With public sector unions, the only marketplace force is the limited ability to contract certain municipal functions, as we’ve seen with prisons and some municipal functions.
In short, until market forces can be brought to bear on the public sector, we’ll have bloated and inefficient government agencies. The unholy alliance between the public sector unions and the Democratic party exists precisely because these workers literally have us all over a barrel.
As an example of breaking this type of stranglehold, look at the huge amount of governmental privatizing that New Zealand did a few years ago. This top-down do-over, replete with government unions and left-wing politicians crying foul, has resulted in tremendous cost savings and an overall more efficient system. Why can’t we do that here? I say start with the DMV! 🙂
Exactly. The distinction between private and public sector unions needs to be emphasized. The nature of their respective authority establishes that they cannot be characterized in the same way.
That’s the same loophole I used to get out of paying money toward political campaigns. I’m also in that weird “middle ground” but I’d rather be there than give one penny to the Dems.
Tell your wife thank you for standing up for her principles.
The first Executive Order Clinton signed, and one of the first Obama signed, was to remove all references to Beck from the required workplace employee notifications.
For the rest of you, here is what we’re referring to: http://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/487/735/
Romney needs to make his own Executive Order and reinstate the posting of that info.
I had no idea Clinton and Obama did that, but I’m not surprised a bit. They’re owned by the union thugs.
Your patience and insight is appreciated, “some guy.”
It’s time to restore the Republic. A nation established with a classical liberal philosophy tempered by Judeo-Christian principles. The original compromise and the corruption it has since sponsored should not define America.
Wow, Professor! I just learned something on your blog: David Frum is a conservative writer! Haven’t seen evidence of that in years.
But of course, he worked for George W., and everybody knows how conservative President Bush was.
Once these distractions are out of the way, Americans need to return to productive pursuits (e.g. economic, reproductive). Once everyone is gainfully employed and contributes to the general Welfare, then we will be capable of enjoying the benefits of living right without fear of progressive corruption. There will always be criminals and opportunists, but fundamental corruption in a free society can only be checked through the embrace of moral principles.
“Makes me nostalgic for the good old days of 2008 when raising more money than you opponent proved how popular you were.”
David Frum is a person who is hostile to conservatives, that writes about conservatives. Collapsing that into “conservative writer” is deceptive, in my view. There are a number of people who take money to write articles as “conservative writers” that are neither fiscally nor culturally conservative, and unfriendly to both groups.
As long as we are discussing battlefield analogy …
How about Wisconsin as El-Alamein? Stalingrad? An overextended army spends/wastes critical resources to go on the offensive because of the delusional visions of its leaders, fails, and marks the turning point of an increasingly mobilized and energized opponent.
However, the verdict isn’t in on Obamacare, whether the passage represents the high-water mark of liberalism in this country — last battle victory before things turn … Or a costly victory that captures a key ground which cannot be recaptured for a long-time.
As always, in history as now, now of these turning points were as inevitable as it seemed in retrospective. The will to fight on by the Allies was critical to making sure it was inevitable that freedom prevailed sooner, rather than waiting 40 years for a totalitarian empire to rot from the inside, ala the Soviets.
Despite its popularity as a cultural metaphor, Waterloo is appropriate as a one-time win or lose battle that represents a final end. If anyone thinks any of these battles are Waterloos on either side, its a misreading of the point of where we are in history, which is whether the tide of liberalism starts to recede, or continues to come in and overwhelms the nation for a longer time despite the furious resistance of a valid group. [ I say longer time, because unsustainable systems are rarely forever ]
Perhaps the -D’s made Wisconsin their Stalingrad. As was the case there, it will be a slow, long push until we can drive the Progressocrats back into their fetid bunkers under the streets of Lefty Land. I’m sure that Frau Oberstgruppenführer Peloϟϟi will exhort her followers to fight to the last hurled invective, while she slips into a fresh skin and slithers back into her swamp.
No never a comparison to Stalingrad. A russian fleeing back over the Volga from his fighting stint said – “OMG they’ve got movie stars over there !”
That reference to tall handsome blonde Germans was nowhere said in Madison of the invaders.
According to the daily beast you guys are blowing Wisc. recall way out of proportion. They barely mention it. According to them Walker just slid in. Of course what can you expect from an enterprise whose recent actual market selling price was $1.00.
Yah. “What election…??”
You know, that Jacobson guy has a pretty darn good crystal ball…
[…] Obama and his Hopium Guzzlers will indulge themselves in fantasies and treacheries. The #1 fantasy today is that the Wisconsin […]
I’m glad you’re as good a prognosticator as you’ve turned out to be here, for sure. But, as another guy in the same profession with his own personal weblog says, “Don’t get cocky.”
😉
If someone runs into one of the MSNBC hosts who were saying last night was a good night for Obama, could you do me a favor and ask him or her,
If last night was a good night for Obama, then why are MSNBC viewers making death threats on Twitter against Governor Walker … and why is that woman slapping Mayor Barrett … and why is that guy crying that “democracy died”?
How would they be acting if it had been a bad night for Obama?
Racist…!
Actually, I think by Tues P.M….
this was ALREADY a(NOTHER) really bad, horrible, awful week for Pres. Choom-a-rang.
And we still have time before the week’s out…
According to MSM-
The bad news: The Koch Bros. bought the election.
The Good news: Obama won the election.
Scott Walker? Never heard of him…..
Please do us one favor, do not mention David Frum again. That creep is not a conservative. He’s a queer and a RINO
I think there are quite a few phrophetic lyrics from Scotty Walker himself.
If I wasn’t on a train I would start singing.