Despite being vastly outspent and having the Republican establishment in Texas against him, Ted Cruz lost to David Dewhurst by only 10 points. That’s a far closer match-up than most polls were predicting. Just a couple of months ago Dewhurst was up by a factor of 2-3 times the ultimate margin.
That’s an indication that Cruz has momentum.
The bad news for Cruz is that Dewhurst still received 44.5% of the vote. Assuming that everyone who voted for Dewhurst stays with Dewhurst, how does Cruz prevent Dewhurst from winning when Dewhurst needs only 6% of the 21% (rounded) who did not vote for Cruz or Dewhurst. Will those uncommitted voters break more than 2-1 for Cruz?
Turnout may be a factor in a run-off election. But it’s hard to see how just a better turnout by Cruz supporters can keep Dewhurst from 50% plus 1.
So Cruz needs to win over some Dewhurst supporters.
I have a feeling more local knowledge than I have is needed on this one. So how does Cruz win?