Endgame Analysis: I don’t think Romney was mortally wounded, but he did stammer through some key issues such as the release of his tax returns. Clearly Newt had almost all of and the biggest moments. Probably Rick Perry’s best debate, Santorum was uneven. Probably Ron Paul’s worst debate.
If Newt’s goal was to knock Romney down, it probably didn’t work. If Newt’s goal was to establish himself as the leader of the Newt-Santorum-Perry grouping, it probably worked. To the extent a debate can make a difference, this should help separate Newt from Santorum, the question is if it was enough.
At the third break: Clearly Newt’s night so far. I’ll post some tweets later from more neutral observers on Twitter. Rick Perry was strong. Santorum a non-entity until the end when he attacked Newt — Santorum hasn’t figured out that he needs to keep Romney down.
At the second break: Newt had all the applause lines (unemployment with job training, children working in schools). Juan Williams tried to claim Newt was belittling minorites, crowd booed loudly, and Newt got to take command. Romney was pressed on tax returns, gave a rambling answer which suggested that he “probably” would do so in Apri (which conveniently is after Super Tuesday when the nomination likely will be all but done).
At the first break: A fairly strange segment, disjointed, started out with Bret Baier going after Newt on Bain attacks then devolved into such things as felon voting rights. The whole segment was just strange.
Bret Baier went after Newt very hard on the Bain attacks, quoting people who criticized Newt. Didn’t challenge Romney at all. Someone from WSJ asked Romney a question on Ampad, but no follow up. Basically, Romney floated through it, Fox went after Newt.
Juan Williams also framed a question to Santorum in a way favorable to Romney, making it sound like Santorum’s response to Romney’s attacks was the problem.
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I’ll give commentary at the breaks.
Here’s what I expect. Santorum is angry at Romney’s attack ads (sound familiar?), and Santorum does angry even better than Newt. Newt will focus on Romney. Perry will try to contrast himself with Newt and Santorum, which would be unfortunate, because it helps Romney. Ron Paul will go after everyone, but mostly present himself as the only real alternative to Romney.
Get this — Santorum up by 80 votes in Iowa.
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IN MONTHS!?!?!?!
Great answer Perry. The border will be secured under a President Perry.
I though Michelle Malkin’s comment on that was excellent – where’s the ban on sanctuary cities in TX if Gov. Perry is such a strong advocate for immigration restrictions?
So, his comments are just posturing, because he is not “heartless” remember.
Where’s the ban on sanctuary cities in Massachusetts? How come Obama’s illegal Kenyan aunt has been hiding in plain sight there, living in public housing and drawing a welfare check? Maybe someone aught to ask Michelle Malkin that. And maybe someone should ask Malkin why Romneycare gives medical insurance to illegals.
Because she damn sure will never say anything about it being in Mitt’s corner like she is.
Perry “40-year crossings due to 40-year low in the economy”. Master of the off the cuff soundbite. Too bad they go horribly awry 10% of the time.
If you didn’t like what you heard tonight, start making plans to attend the Constitution Party National Convention in Nashville, Tennessee in April.
http://www.constitutionparty.com/view_events.php
Good answer, Newt!
Every Republican who supported NCLB in 2002 now arguing it was fundamentally flawed. Only one who said it as the time: Paul.
Newt with the strong closer.
Paul owns Twitter. Pegged at 100% positive in every category.
Is anyone watching the talking heads?
Twitter polls not scientific. Ron Paul tweets way above everyone else on economic questions and he never got one question about it.
Romney showed cracks in his armor tonight.
Thank You Mr Jacobson for the honest deabte assessment and analysis..
Newt is clearly up against the liberal Republican Party establishment apparatus, which includes Fox News, but one in which Newt can aptly and ably handle. What else is new, as Reagan had to deal with the same crony Republican Party RINO apparatus and people.
The problem is always the same thing,as the political agenda of Obama left, or the RINO right, always trys to get in the way of the Truth. That’s what they have in common against Newt, and the Tea Party Reagan conservatives, which is why the Republican Party apparatus, can easily justify colluding with the far left, so they can ensure the reins of power and control, stay in the liberal hands, of either party.
Romney is exactly like Obama, a facsimile.. in almost every way, except his party affiliation, and race. He is a Harvard graduate elitist, and consummate compulsive liar, just like Obama amd Bill Clinton..
I would also say, Romney is like Bill Clinton, in being smooth and slick, as well as a good liar, so he has the complete total liberal politician lying package, which is why he can evade the tough questions.
His record in both civilian and public office, aka, his actions, compared to his words, are the exact opposite, except in some rare Freudian moments, where he actually reveals and exposes his liberalism to the public..
Romney is the Antithesis of Ronald Reagan and Reagan Conservatism. In fact, to emphatically state and emphasize-Mitt Romney is the complete and utter absolute opposite of everything U.S. President Ronald Reagan represented, and stood for.
I and millions of other Tea Party Reagan Conservatives, wouldn’t trust one word, let alone any political campaign Ads by Romney, especially by his superPAC, if he were the last lying liberal Republican Party RINO elitist Clintononian Obama-ite, on the planet.
One last note, if Romney and his liberal Republican Party apparatus thinks any more Romney’s wins, in any more primary states will be the end of the Tea Party, they has another thing coming, as we will fight Romney’s Nomination tooth and nail, especially in the Republican party Convention, as I gurauntee you.
This will a bitter fight to the bitter end, and we will not be defeated.
Good words.
I disagree. Newt and Santorum are a big part of the reason we had a huge expansions of government. You all talk about standing up to the libs who want to expand and invade our lives. Where were you when Newt et al were doing it?
Newt had some great lines, so do lots of used car salesmen. Big deal, I still don’t want one for President.
Yes, TeaPartyPatrio4ever — I believe you are right.
— and another way I think Romney is like Bill Clinton — the same kinds of consultants tell Romney to pretend to be conservative, because if Romney tells the truth about his positions and beliefs, he’ll never get elected. So Clinton, Clinton and Romney prevaricate and then plan to do as they please once they get elected. Obama is just this very same way but at breakneck speed, with Chicago-style thuggery and no intrinsic loyalty or love for America to slow him down.
This debate tonight was spectacular. Newt was awesome. The energy of the audience was just amazing. Thank you, Myrtle Beach! Thank you, South Carolina!
Oh, to restore our country to the Constitution. To have lower tax rates and higher tax revenues. To bring back manufacturing. to have PROSPERITY again, and opportunity for people to have jobs and start businesses.
There is so much you may not know about in what Newt is proposing. It’s really exciting once you know what it is. It’s in the speeches. I watched the speeches all through the past year and they are what convinced me. I can actually vote FOR Newt and not just against the other guy. How long has it been since I could really vote FOR someone for president? 1984!!
Here is a brand-new link to 17 of Newt’s speeches, at a brand-new website NEWT GINGRICH FOR PRESIDENT.
“2012: VICTORY OR DEATH” is an AWESOME speech and is a great one to start with. It has a lot in it about George Washington and the crossing of the Delaware and their password that night, “victory or death.” If you’re interested.
Here’s the link: http://newtgingrich360.com/profiles/blogs/2012-victory-or-death-newt-s-speeches-links-to-17-speeches
This is the opportunity of a lifetime. I don’t want any more Mr. Potter and Pottersville. I want the CHANCE for the American people to have local control and self government again.
I love your comment, and your points. And, I especially appreciate the “Potter and Pottersville” comment. I have been feeling and thinking this for a long time – the villan in “It’s a Wonderful Life” is Obama and the left personified.
Of course, the movie is supposedly portraying Potter to be an iconic “big money banker” who is the “king” looking down on the masses and saying “they need to be a thrifty working class!” etc. Potter is a “scurvy spider” – a fitting description of Obama, IMHO, and all those who wish to keep the poor dependent on a “benevolent master” big government.
The reality is, Obama and leftists are Mr. Potter: Potter=Obama. Obama is the king, and instead of trying to keep them poor and in his “ObamaVille” tenements, he wants to keep them on EBT cards (i.e. food stamps), on the dole (welfare and never-ending unemployment), fully dependent on him (big government’s benevolent king – or tyrannical dictator). Tyranny!!
The evil of the left personified is Mr. Henry Potter (Obama), and the nightmare of Pottersville (our economy today).
It is time to stop worrying and love the Newt.
15 debates and Newt gets the only standing O, among several very strong moments. (He got another lesser standing O from about 20% of the crowd on another answer).
This type of debate performance is what created the initial Gingrich surge back before Iowa, negated by a confluence of Romney & Paul attack ads Newt couldn’t counter due to lack of funds, but also because the attacks coincided with a lengthy break in debates, where Gingrich makes his money, so to speak.
Well, now Gingrich can counter attack ads and we’re back to debates, his strong suit. I’m curious as to how much of a bump in polling this translates into.
Ron Paul…. yikes, lol.
Santorum did well for himself as well.
Perry, alas, is done. He did well, but not nearly well enough, overshadowed by Gingrich’s particularly strong showing.
Romney did not do well at all. His best replies were of the standard boilerplate type, generic and platitudinal, mere debate prep rote recitals.
The worm may have turned.
Gee, we go from the Man From Bain to the valedictorian of the Dale Carnegie School of Public Speaking.
Ignore records and actual putting into practice conservative policies.
Gingrich had a great night but the November magic is gone. Too much water under the bridge, and the ads will have the last word. Fox panel also gave him his perfect foil. CNN debate will be very different.
Romney stuck a fork in real Social Security reform and defended indefinite detentions. A little early to be openly revealing himself as Obama II. Sadly this will have zero effect on his standing.
Paul needs debating lessons. 200 years of conservative foreign policy to back him up and he bites at a gotcha question on OBL. Fox panel didn’t ask him a single question on economy, jobs, spending, or debt.
Santorum – sure, I voted against right-to-work and for NCLB and Part D but somehow I’ll be different as president.
Perry – one word from being frontrunner in South Carolina. That word? “Heartless” (“oops” could’ve been forgiven)
Huntsman – brushing up his acceptance speech for Secretary of State
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It looks like Santorum may save us all.
Thanks Prof. Jacobson for an interesting analysis of the debate!
[…] See! Beautiful Teeth! Posted on January 17, 2012 5:30 pm by Bill Quick » Republican South Carolina Debate – Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion Endgame Analysis: I don’t think Romney was mortally wounded, but he did stammer through […]