Florida primary results
Looks like turnout down 200k from 2008. Notice that when Romney ties/wins (IA, NH, FL) no turnout surge, when Newt won in SC huge turnout surge. Turnout will be important in November 2012, and while Romney is winning, he’s not motivating new voters to come out. Bad sign so far.
95% reporting – 46.6 – 31.8 – 13.3 – 7
Newt Speech — a campaign speech pure and simple, trying to rally people on what certaily is a disappointing night. “We are going to contest every place.” “People power will defeat mone power.” Losts of lines about running against the establishment. A few shots at Romney, not by name, but implied. Overall a pretty good speech, but the speech of someone behind not a presumptive nominee. Even per people not particularly friendly to Newt it was a very substantive speech, very policy oriented.
Santorum speech — lectures about not attacking others, but spent almost entire time attacking others. Not a good speech.
75% reporting – 46.8 – 31.7 – 13.2 – 6.7
Romney’s victory speech started as a good speech. He didn’t take shots at any other Republicans initially, and spoke to the issue of the competitive primaries making Republicans stronger. That was the right tone. If he ends up as the nominee, he is going to have to heal some very, very serious wounds largely created by the way he ran his campaign. Unfortunately, he did include one shot at others running, saying only he knows how to create jobs. Oh, well, not necessary.
Brit Hume: “He beat Newt Gingrich by bombing him back into the stone age” with negative ads.
66% Reporting — 47-31-13-7
Exit polls have Romney and Gingrich tied in North Florida/Panhandle
CNN says Romney won Tea Party voters 40-38, which is very surprising, lost evangelicals by only a few percent. Romney won big for voters who thought electability was most important.
CNN exit polls show Romney with 46-32 over Gingrich, 12 for Santorum, 8 Paul.
Polls closed everywhere, no surprise, all networks calling it for Romney.
51% counted - Romney 48, Gingrich 31, Santorum 13, Paul 7
Romney is losing the “very conservative” and the “strongly support the tea party” demos in the Fox exit poll http://j.mp/zwYsx9
With 45% of precincts counted, Romney ahead of Gingrich 49%-30%
Via Nate Silver: Romney Unlikely to Win 50 Percent of Vote http://nyti.ms/A6xTxX
The numbers so far include early voting, where Romney won big. So will be interesting to see if 50% take holds up statewide.
It appears Gingrich is doing well in northern Florida, which is a good sign for him Re: Super Tuesday southern states
Current vote totals, with 32% of the precincts reporting: Mitt Romney 50%, Newt Gingrich 29%, Rick Santorum 12%, Ron Paul 7%.
Early results — looking like Romney coming very close to or just over 50%, but that may just reflect more favorable Miami-Dade where he’s getting about 68%.
Exit poll – 40% want another candidate to enter the race.
Allen West is moving districts (not election news, but figured you’d want to know).
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The polls in most of Florida close at 7 p.m., in the western part at 8 p.m. The networks are supposed to wait until 8 p.m. to call the race, but calling the race is not expected to be the big issue.
Based on the polls, it would be the equivalent of Krakatoa East of Boca if Newt won, or even if it was close. The spin will be on the margin of Romney’s win.
I’m not sure at what point it becomes a symbolic victory for Newt; the keys will be if Newt and Santorum combined exceed Romney, and how close Romney gets to 50%. Considering that Paul and Santorum pretty much dropped out of Florida, Romney cannot hide behind a crowded field for not reaching 50%.
Also important will be regions, particularly the north and Panhandle, which may reflect Newt’s strength in southern primaries.
I will update results periodically, but not moment by moment unless it’s tight, but really I’ll focus on linking to interesting tidbits.
Also, I note that Fox News is playing an attack ad Santorum is running in Colorado against Newt. Santorum doesn’t get it — he’s playing the same mistake the not-Romneys played in the fall attacking each other rather than Romney.
+17-4
Comments
I heard Laura Ingraham this AM and when she was done with the perfunctory interviews with Newt and Ricky (trying to get them to sing or egg them into a fight) she said in closing, Mitt Romney has just ran a “MASTERFUL campaign” in FL. She was impressed with the effectiveness of 5:1 negative ads no doubt. Masterful? More like Master-Blaster but which one is Mitt?
This is the same “right-wing” talk show host that could not stop complimenting herself at how wonderful she was to be invited to the Alfalfa Dinner last night with the Bushies and Obama. I’m sure she gloated to Ann Coulter on her good fortune to be flirting with those “beautiful men”, Jeb and Barack oh my!
The only thing she didn’t get was her dream candidate John Thune. Seeing her giggling like a 13 yr. old interviewing John Thune on BOR one night last spring was uncomfortable to watch and probably worse for Mrs. Thune. Count her with SE Cupp as thinking ‘electable’ and ‘GQ looks’ are one in the same.
I heard that too – so glad I’ve never bought any of her books. No humility at all. Very proud of her invite.
I found it problematic when she had said if you want to win running negative ads is what you do. Really?
All the respect I had for these talking heads has greatly diminished except for Levin who has been fair.
I hope they all read the recent write up of who was most negative -Romney. Oops, I forgot, that’s how you win.
Does it ever make you wonder why you have to suddenly label all these longtime conservative icons as RINO establishment enemies when they come out against Newt?
You couldn’t find many conservatives FOR Newt when we tossed his incompetent grandstanding butt from the Speaker’s chair. And you don’t see his former colleagues lining up to endorse him, either. If he was such a great Speaker, why do you suppose that is?
Gingrich is ONLY “conservative” when he needs something from us. Once he has what he wants or all he can get, it’s the knife in the back again. It’s his MO, has been for more than three decades.
I wish there were a good conservative alternative to Romney in the race, or who even now would get in. But Gingrich isn’t it, and NEVER will be.
Did they have to blank your memory completely when you joined the Newties?
Pressure reveals character and fealty to first principles. What we are witnessing is the mass realization by conservatives that a large portion of the GOP is not committed to constitutional, limited government. In the battle for liberty, the GOP is on the side of statism.
Many of us have had that suspicion for years, but have been (and are being) convicted of over-reacting and not seeing the forest for the trees. Well, after trees named Bush, Dole, Bush and McCain with assorted under-brush like Lowry, Sunnunu and others, we do see the forest–and its ugly
We are all getting a painful look at the people that some respected and liked and finding out they are part of the cause of the country’s demise. When they support a liberal like Romney than you know they aren’t credible. The good thing about continuing the vetting as Gov. Palin said we should do is it reveals all the people and what they really stand for. Sadly, there are very few of these politicians and talking heads who are on our side. And I mean talk radio, talk shows etc. VERY FEW. I learned long ago to not extend trust easily. And I am not easily won over. Not for sale.
I think Newt still needs to figure out who he is in terms of his candidacy.
Usually successful candidates know who they are. THey have a narrative, a story.
Obama was Mr Change, the 1st black President. The country wanted change after 8 yrs of W and there was no bigger change than Obama.
McCain was the war hero. Served his country before and wanted to do so again. Country first. Lose an election rather than a war.
Kerry was also the war hero. The decorated veteran running against the guy who got us into the wrong war at the wrong time(or so the argument went)
W was the son of the fmr President. Avenging his father Inigo Montoya style and retsoring the Bush dynasty and GOp to its proper place after the Clinton usurpation. Also the good christian family man restoring honor and dignity to the WH after 8 yrs of Slick.
Clinton was the man from Hope. the young, new generation, New Dem who felt your pain as opposed to Poppy Bush who lacked the vision thing and stared at his watch.
Reagan was the movie star who would make Americans believe in themselves again.
Carter was the simple farmer who would restore the nation’s moral core after Watergate.
Nixon was the man of the Silent Majority who would take back the country from the counterculture and hippies.
you get the idea.
Romney has his narrative. He’s the business leader who succeeded in turning around companies and now he’s going to turn around the economy. Simple. To the point.
What’s Newt’s narrative? He doesn’t seem to have one that’s clear and direct. the guy who bashes the media won’t cut it. The gadfly with 1001 ideas isn’t much better. He needs a storyline. Who is he?
Unfortunately he doesn’t really have a personal story a la McCain, Kerry, Bush, Obama, etc… He won’t be a 1st of any kind. He’s not a war hero or some charismatic figure. Has no family or legacy connection. Yes he’s from GA but he has no accent and isn’t particularly identifiable as Southern. What’s his pitch? He needs one fast.
Any suggestions?
Ofergodsake. I really can be pushed to vote for Obama!
Of the previous nominees, it seems like Nixon would be the best model for Newt. Not a good omen I know.
But there are some similiarities. Both very polarizing and controversial histories. Nixon was depised by the dems for Alger Hiss. Newt for impeachment. Nixon came up lacking in comparison to the younger, more vigorous, more hip, more ladies man JFK. See Newt vs Clinton. Nixon left politics after his 62 loss in the Gov race his final press conference and he was an object of scorn and ridicule. No one gave him any mind or thought he had any chance at anything. See Newt post 1998. Nixon eventually made himself into an elder statesman of the party. See Newt. Nixon was very knowledgable on policy but not exactly the most engaging guy and the most friendly/charismatic. Again, see Newt. There are plenty of other similarities.
Nixon ran against Romney for the nomination.
He needs that “silent majority”-esque narrative for his campaign. He needs that sentence description that really sums up who he is and what he’s about. I think basing it on the successful economic results of the mid-late 90s is the best approach and somehow coming up with a sentence that really captures that and translates it to the next 4 years.
Just want to point out that turn out was higher in 2008 due to a constitutional ammendment being on the ballot relating to the homestead exemption.
According to wikipedia there was no homestead exemption on the ballot. It was struck down by a fed judge. There was only one initiative on the Jan 29 ballot(same day as GOP primary), one having to do with a tax issue.
But in any event, shouldn’t the turnout be up this year as Republicans should be revved up their huge 2010 win and their desire to beat Obama, and the establishment’s golden child and chosen one was riding high in the saddle. Especially in FL, a key swing state, home of Rubio and a GOP Gov in Scott.
The fact that turnout is down by around 300,000 can’t all be explained by some tax initiative.
Exit polls yesterday showed that four in ten Florida voters were not happy with their choices. I think that goes a long way toward explaining the turnout.
final turnout around 1,663,000 down from 1,950,000 in 08. A drop of 287,000 or 15%.
Romney gets 771,000 votes. 70,000 more than the 701,000 McCain won with in 08. 167,000 more than the 604,000 Romney got in 08. He got around 17% of the McCain/Giuliani vote form 08 in addition to holding his own base.
I remember reading an article a few days back about Romney’s organization and campaign in FL. It talked about how detailed it was and how long it had been working the state and planning. It said the campaign’s target was at least 900,000 votes. They ended up around 20% short of their own target despite all the advantages they had in the state. Not a good sign for the fall against the most impressive campaign organization ever put together and an absolute genius when it comes to turnout in Plouffe.
Newt+Santorum just about tied Romney in total votes. Just imagine if Santorum had accepted Newt’s offer to split hte 50 delegates if he urged all his supporters to vote Newt on Sunday. Both Newt and Snatorum would be the big winners tonight and Romney would be serverely damaged. Oh well.
Hillary won the 08 dem primary with 871,000 votes. 100,000 more than Romney got tonight, and the dems didn’t even campaign in FL in 08.
BTW, in 08 Hillary crushed Obama in FL 50-33. We all know how that turned out. An omen for Newt perhaps.
So, FL turnout down almost 300k from 2008. Be interesting to see if that’s brought up.
Santorum wouldn’t make the deal for two reasons: 1) he’s a big “play by the rules” guy, and 2) he’s observed that anyone who has ever trusted Newt ended up screwed by him, without exception (Callista is still pending, but has the $500,000 line of credit at Tiffany’s as insurance).
Wow. Late-breaking snark from a late-arriving troll.
Turnout is down… not surprising, since Romney basically declared war on the party grassroots via Gingrich as the proxy. I can already predict the future… Romney and the establishment will say WE need to make peace with THEM, not the other way around. If that’s going to be the line, expect even lower turnout in November.
It’s on Mitt and the establishment to make peace with the base of the party if they even have a chance at winning over Obama. It’s going to take more than a token conservative as his Veep, assuming Romney even does that much.
Romney – popular vote so far – 1,070,490
Non-Romney popular vote so far – 1,473,599
Romney % popular vote 42%
Non-Romney % popular vote 58%
Non-Romney, conservative/libertarian, seems to be ahead.
It was presented as a real quote here, was it not? And a lot of people are presenting it as a real Romney quote. If Steyn was any good at writing, so many people would not have taken that quote as an accurate one.