Charleston South Carolina Debate
Endgame assessment: Newt stole the buzz with the opening smackdown of John King over the issue of his ex-wife. After that Santorum was very aggressive, going after both Romney and Newt time and again; people either will like it or hate it. After a while he became grating. Romney has a strong debate, except on the income tax return issue where he once again seemed ill prepared. Newt was okay in the debate after the initial smackdown, but not the standout mostly because Santorum was on attack all the time. Ron Paul was not much of a presence.
The closings were very telling. Newt and Romney talked about the need to defeat Obama and how important it was to the country, Santorum talked about himself.
If Newt has momentum, I don’t think this will slow it down. Romney and Paul will keep their support, the big question is whether Santorum can slow down the drift of not-Romney voters to Newt.
At the third break:
Immigration came up, and Newt came up with a formulation of not deporting grandmothers and grandfathers, and a host of other legal effects to dissuade hiring of illegals. Newt got pretty loud applause. Romney said they need to go back home, the applause was light. Santorum went after Romney on changing positions.
Santorum was pretty much all attack all the time. On immigration, abortion, etc. Even hit Ron Paul on abortion rating of 50%.
At the second break:
Santorum went on the offenive again against Newt in very personal terms, “that worrisome moment” we can’t afford. Newt hit back very effectively. I’m curious what others think, because I’m not neutral. I found Santorum offensive and not very likable.
On tax returns, Newt announced he just released his. Romney said in April, but on question of why not now, Romney said he was afraid of how Democrats would use them. Santorum said his are on his home computer?
Is it me, or is Santorum growing angrier with each minute?
At the first break:
CNN opens with question about Marianne — Newt hit it out of the park, in the ultimate debate smackdown. He could not have asked for it to be brought up in a better way. Romney, in a classy way, refused to pile on Newt. Santorum took the opportunity to put in a few digs at Newt as did Ron Paul, but in indirect ways.
Romney handled the Bain issue better than before, giving a speech about capitalism. Regardles of the topic Romney came back to the capitalism and free markets theme.
Santorum no much of a presence, but had a sour tone to him going after other candidates, particularly on the health care mandate. To an extent he did Newt’s dirty work, but then turned on Newt as well. Romney has a pretty vigorous defense, and sparred with Santorum. Overall, it was a powerful moment for Santorum on balance. Ron Paul actually helped Romney and Newt by pointing out Santorum has been big government.
———————
I’m going to give my assessments at the breaks and when it’s over.
+16-1
Comments
RON PAUL: Standard Ron Paul. I think if you asked Ron Paul who he was picking in the NFL playoffs, or how the weather’s supposed to be tomorrow, he’d find some torturous way to demand we recall all our armed forces and diplomatic staff from around the world. Took off the crazy mask tonight and replaced it with the cute old coot mask. No chance at GOP nomination, knows it, doesn’t care – he’s just pushing the hard libertarian message.
Obama 97% / Paul 3%.
RICK SANTORUM: It seemed to me that as the debate progressed, it became clearer to Santorum that what he needed to happen wasn’t happening. Along with Paul and Romney, I think he understood that John King had given Newt a huge gift by so egregiously teeing off with the ex-wife thing. I think Santorum saw things fading finally away and wasn’t so much angry as he was tired and frustrated. His best moment was his reply on the fluff question – what’s the one thing you’d change in the campaign so far? Santorum is tougher than folks know, but Obama, I fear, would slowly wear this guy down .
Obama 54% / Santorum 46%.
MITT ROMNEY: Again, more standard boilerplate, debate prep rote recitals. Very little spontaneity, except when responding about his tax return release – then he spontaneously drew a blank and got flustered. Romney did not slow Newt’s momentum, nor improve his own lot. I think he suffered more damage from Santorum than Newt. Not sure how many heard it, but while on his ‘I’m the outsider here’ answer, Romney said he knew the ‘real streets’ of America. Puh-lease. If Romney knows the streets of America, it’s because his house servants showed him pictures of it. Glass jaw, too reliant on prep and scripting, too impersonal, zip on charisma, cannot close the deal.
Obama 52% / Romney 48%.
NEWT GINGRICH: How many leftie media scalps does he have hanging from his belt now? I’m almost tempted to believe Gingrich paid John King to open questioning like that. Here’s the pitch………… BAM! Home run, deep right field. Gingrich now owns the only two standing Os from debates. The problem was that it was tough for Newt to top his first answer, the takedown of John King. No matter…. Nobody was gonna top that, so Newt was up three TDs in the 1st quarter. The rest of the debate was fairly standard poke and jab among the players, nobody really outstripping anyone else. Thanks to John King and the editorial staff at CNN who approved that opening question, Newt basically had a knockout in the first minute. And yes, I DO relaize I’ve worked in three different sports, which constitutes a hat trick – and the fourth sport, hee hee.
Gingrich 53% / Obama 47%.
PREDICTION: Barring some Evil Newtism or other unpredictable, in SC it’ll be…
Gingrich……38%
Romney…… 33%
Paul………… 17%
Santorum…… 12%
If Newt wins SC, prepare for all-out war from the Romney camp and GOP establishment. I believe they have not yet played what they believe is their highest card (trick) against Newt Gingrich and will do so before Florida.
Like or Dislike:
19 
0
Mitt spent most of the debate either stuttering or deflecting questions. His evasions about his income tax returns were quite pronounced.
Like or Dislike:
9 
0
During Florida.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
I agree with your assessments. Romney CAN NOT let this fester into Super Tuesday. If there’s a crack in the Romney dam, Romney’s supepac and surrogates will be loading up on caulking putty big time to sure up the damage. Afterwards, they’ll go on an all-out offensive which will make Iowa look like a picnic. Two words come into mind: “scorched Earth”.
Have they shot their ammo? At what point does it become a “law of diminishing returns”? I think Newt just hit the perfect pitch on the right frequency.
Two other things: (1) Will Santorum hear a “huge sucking sound” as Newt siphons off his supporters? Right now, it’s Newt vs Santorum for the anti-Romney candidate and Newt has the “it” factor going for him. (2) What of Sarah’s BIG closing speech at CPAC 2012? What will she do? Will it be a “resume enhancer”, endorsement for a candidate, run for POTUS (doubt that) or something else? Can she be the one who tips the scales for Newt on Super Tuesday? That would be a game changer.
Like or Dislike:
5 
0
The establishment has been pontificating that Sarah is best used as a cheerleader from the sidelines. They’re more likely than not going to get their wish, but it never occurred to themselves it would happen INSIDE the primary.
Like or Dislike:
4 
0
Re: scorched Earth.
That may well backfire now. Romney now becomes the unhinged bitter bastard attacking the leader.
Time will tell.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
Santorum will drop out after he comes in 4th in SC.
Mitt is now the outsider?
Gaping hole on that stage now that Perry is gone…but there it is.
It’s a two man race between Thurston Howell and the Skipper and somebody needs to tell Gilligan.
Like or Dislike:
1 
0
“Romney said they need to go back home, the applause was light” The mild reaction to sending illegals back to Mexiico was the biggest surprise of the night.
Newt was great but missed it a bit. He forgot to mention the most important reason why it was a stupid question about the ex-wife: His ex-wife is not something that can be DEBATED with the other candidates. That is why and he should have stated it and not leave it as a given or obvious.
Excellent summary Mr. J.
Like or Dislike:
6 
0
Excellent point.
Like or Dislike:
1 
0
Sorry, folks, I know I’m kind of $0.02 y’all tonight, but I’m really enjoying your comments.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
Professor, your observation about Santorum was exactly the same as mine. Every time he spoke, I wanted to grind my teeth. As for anger, I think he knew his only option was to attack , attack, attack — and in the process he became a one-trick pony.
Did he smile at all? If so, I missed it.
BTW, I happened to like Ron Paul tonight. He was not shrill and he consistently took the libertarian approach to all questions. Fortunately for him, the debate did not center on troops, wars, pork-barrel politics or antisemitism.
Like or Dislike:
4 
0
Sadly I missed most of it. The take down of King was awesome! Almost peed myself I was laughing so hard!
Did King ask Romney about the McCain Opposition file? Probably not, do they think people are actually gonna let them fatten up the GOP so they can serve him to the DNC? Only Mitten wearers are falling for it.
Like or Dislike:
2 
0
They did not ask Romney about the McCain file.
Like or Dislike:
1 
0
Did Romney take his line about Reagan’s diary in attacking Newt from an Ann Coulter column?
http://twitter.com/#!/AnnCoulter/status/160217719336214528
Mittens, trying stand-up comedy.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
does anybody doubt that newt would tear obama a new one in debate ? my fear though is that newt could come off/be painted as a ‘typically mean’ republican and give obama some sympathy votes. i also wonder if newt’s take-no-prisoners debate style would translate well into the presidency. between his ego and his predilection for ‘going off’ he might be more difficult to deal with than we would like. on the other hand, romney’s congenial, businesslike demeanor can seem robotic and dull but may serve us well in the oval office, assuming that he can make his case against obama impressively enough to get him there. i’m standing at the crossroads, wondering which way to go.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
Newt’s opening exchange with John King showed that he could fight both the media and Obama at the same time. Mitt can’t do that.
Newt has a long history of being a Reagan conservative with a conservative record of accomplishment: 4 balanced budgets and welfare reform.
Mitt Romney has a long history of opposing conservative policies and conservative leaders. Mitt even opposed the conservative icon of the Republican party: Ronald Reagan.
Mitt Romney saddled his state with the socialized healthcare plan known as Romneycare, the building block for Obamacare.
At the heart of RomneyCare is the individual mandate. Romneycare’s individual mandate is antithetical to the core philosophy of the Republican party.
An analysis of Romneycare by Suffolk University’s Beacon Hill Institute found that, on average, Romneycare:
• cost the Bay State 18,313 jobs;
• drove up total health insurance costs in Massachusetts by $4.311 billion;
• slowed the growth of disposable income per person by $376; and
• reduced investment in Massachusetts by $25.06 million.
In addition:
“the state’s health-care costs have been heavily subsidized by billions of dollars in federal aid through a Medicaid waiver program.”
And if you are wondering why conservatives aren’t excited about Mitt? It’s because many do not want the party to nominate a man who is fundamentally at odds with the party’s core philosophy.
Like or Dislike:
1 
0
Newt will get cheers on the big scores like at everyone’s enemy, the media (using King to do so) but it is the little petty meanies he does, the quiet unspoken ones. I am not a RP supporter and yet I find myself getting disgusted with how Newt, the big guy on campus, treats the non-threat underdog. When Newt doesn’t like you, he can’t stand to even be in your presence and can’t hide it. Case in point, Drudge has pic up of all four candidates standing in a line with hands over hearts. There is little forlorn RP off to the side, looking like a little, lost puppy or pathetic, little old man (remember not discussing if these things are true or not about RP. OK. So now everyone is using the pic to laugh further at Paul, who is not ever going to win the nomination. But look closely at pic. It is Newt who moved out of sequence and distanced himself from RP. That is just tacky & not nice. He did not, obviously, like his slot so he threw a mini tantrum at someone else’s expense. (Yeah, yeah, I know RP is open territory but it lacks grace and class on Newts part no run someone else party his way or no way) It is these silent bully/temper tantrums that will come back and bite Newt in the main election as a hypocrite.
Like or Dislike:
0 
1
referenced pic: http://l.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/grB_LYoeUKYModh0YjMi_Q–/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9aW5zZXQ7aD0zMzQ7cT04NTt3PTUxMg–/http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/Reuters/2012-01-20T012653Z_01_SCD204_RTRIDSP_3_USA-CAMPAIGN.jpg
Like or Dislike:
0 
1
I think you’re spelling molehill as m-o-u-n-t-a-i-n. Geez, what a thin example of Newt ‘meanness’.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
I watched the debate, I saw that moment from a straight-on camera angle (not the oblique angle pictured here).
Santorum and Gingrich both moved closer to Romney so as to draw the camera in. They are media savvy. Ron Paul did not pick up on the cue and remained where he stood. Either that or he didn’t want to be associated with the others.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
“So now everyone is using the pic to laugh further at Paul,”
Who would even notice a problem with that picture? All I notice is that Newt and Mitt look like they’re holding on to their wallets.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
For all you know, Ron Paul could have been the one who distanced himself from the other candidates.
Like or Dislike:
3 
0
I have no doubt Barack Obama’s handlers will use that strategery, but I suspect it won’t work. Gingrich is known for his scathing evaluations of political opponents. He’s done it to Democrats most of his adult life. I wonder if the talking heads will just say “that’s just Newt being Newt. Obama’s people should have been better prepared for this, like Clinton’s people were.”
And somewhere, off in the distance, Hillary cackles.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
The first question served Newt well, whether that was its intent or not. And Newt made clear what most know, that big Media will protect Obama, and dredge up any old dirt possible on Republicans.
Romney and Santorum both have big government credentials, so both wanted to knock Newt on his conservative record. Romney says his Dad got as much mention in the Reagan book as Newt. Santorum says his own party wanted to get rid of Newt.
Newt came back with a list of his credentials. I don’t know if Newt was impetuous or undisciplined in the 1990′s … he seems to have a grasp of things now, and ability to express the conservative cause better than others. That ability is important for a president.
Romney in an earlier election only claimed some 10,000 jobs, now he is over 100,000 because four companies he says they started, have 120,000 jobs. So he takes full credit. I’m not clear yet how much involvement had in those companies, or which companies he means. Last I read, Bain only had a 10% stake in Staples. WSJ seems to be defending the LBO era … I think there are big ties between the era of leveraging up our economy and our current malaise/crisis (depending on your economic viewpoint).
Like or Dislike:
1 
0