The Doomsday Poll results are in.
Ron Paul met the most opposition, with by far the highest percentage of votes for staying home or voting for Obama in the general election. Second, with less than half as much opposition, was Mitt Romney.
There was some funny business as to Rick Santorum. He had a very low vote count on the Definite/Likely poll, but within a short period there was a flood of votes, and then few after that. On the “possibly” poll, he received almost no votes. My guess is that at a certain point in time there was an attempt to deflect negativity onto Santorum away from another candidate.
So what does this show? Obviously it’s not scientific and doesn’t guarantee that people actually will stay home or vote Obama. But there is a very significant risk that if Ron Paul were the nominee, there would be a lot of people who would find that alternative more palatable.
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We must keep our priorities straight: The current president must be defeated. Ron Paul has run for president a lot. And in a third party. He was asked about a 3rd party run, and he refused to commit either way. If we give him any encouragement, he will go third party when he loses the Republican nomination. We had another Texan R.P. that did the 3rd party ego trip…remember what happened.
The US AG was down in Austin yesterday trying to clear the way to win the election by permitting as much fraud as possible. It is going to be very hard to defeat the current pres. Let’s not do anything to make the job harder.
I think the important take away is the Newt has less than half the “stay at home” opposition that Mitt does. And I think that number will grow if Mitt continues to have his minions eviscerate another Republican like they are trying to do now.
Great idea for a poll, btw, professor. And good timing, too. Would love to see a similar poll offered to a larger, more diverse set of likely 2012 voters – but that’s probably too much to expect because poll-taking organizations too often seem to not want the truth, rather they try to tweak the outcome to suit their preferred results.
I don’t think the poll was at all meaningful. I was looking for a bullet that would let me say that there was no
Republican candidate that would encourage me to stay home. Every one of them is a significant improvement over Obama. Just the fact we would get much different appointments to departments like Justice, State, and EPA make all the difference.
And for every Republican who stays home because of Paul’s foreign policy, there would be 2 Dems who would switch from Obama to Paul, for the same reason.
Why Republicans have fallen in love with killing foreigners is a mystery to me. If you’re not willing to wage endless war, we don’t want you as president . . .
There’s no point in defeating Obama with a Republican who just wants to slow the train down a little, so that it slams into the wall a little more slowly. Only Paul wants to turn the train around.
Only Paul represents the views of the Founders.
If anyone BUT Paul is nominated, I’ll stay home. Why vote for Obama Lite?
Wise up, folks. Time grows short.
EXACTLY.
We’re a nation of vampires with a thirst for blood!!!!11!!!eleventy!one!
In completely unrelated news, most Ron Paul supporters don’t understand why Paul isn’t gaining traction…
lol, funny.
NOT gaining traction? Check the polls. When Paul wins Iowa, you’ll see some real traction. Then 2nd place in NH. He’s the only real choice.
lol, even funnier.
I guess you’re a product of public schools. Here’s a tip. Laughing isn’t a counter-argument. It just shows you don’t HAVE a counter-argument. Thanks for playing.
“Here’s a tip. Laughing isn’t a counter-argument. It just shows you don’t HAVE a counter-argument.”
HH, I have not heard this before and enjoyed it. It has been fun reading through the conversation, but this little diddy makes my day and I look forward to sharing/using the line in other discussion on different topics. Thanks.
IMO a portion of GOP voters have moved away from ABO as a mandate. It isn’t enough to pick another disasterous POTUS just because he has a R in his party block. And IMO a candidate who threatens 3rd party has no business trying to get the GOP slot.
You must be referring to Trump, because Congressman Paul has not threatened a 3rd party run. Others have urged it on him. He has said he has no intention of making it. Isn’t that good enough?
That poll which showed Paul within 1% had Democrats and Independents in it who broke heavily towards Paul. The Iowa Caucuses are closed, which means only registered Republicans can participate. Im sure there will be a few who go through the trouble to support Paul, but most wont. Remember Paul’s strongest amongst the young and they dont vote as often.
Also, Paul supporters are notoriously bad at convincing others of their views, which is a key skill needed to win a caucus. Paul will do no better than 3rd in Iowa and no better than 3rd in NH.
I’ll bet you $10,000 Paul does no worse than a close 2nd in Iowa! But he’ll likely win.
The poll is of LIKELY caucus attendees. And rain or shine, his voters turn out.
Frank Lutz just said on Fox that Paul will out score his polling at the Caucuses. He will. And win.
Paul’s supporters don’t need to convince others. Those “others” will realize Newt Romney is not worth supporting. You’ll see.
I agree with Katiejane. This is how the establishment gets to keep on nominating these Democrat-lite candidates. Because they know that we will vote for them no matter who they pick. Sure we had Reagan, but since then, George H.W. Bush (how is probably the president closest to a Romney), Dole, W, and McCain. W probably came the closest to being a conservative in that group, but he ended up destroying the GOP after Medicare Part D (what is the point of voting Republican if they are going to act like Democrats). Now Im not saying we need to stay home if Bachmann isnt nominated. The candidate doesnt have to be 100% conservative. But Romney? Do we have ANY idea at all how he will act in the White House? And we are supposed to vote for him because? We need to stop the madness.
Reagan? The last decent Republican nom. was Goldwater. All the rest want their own version of big brother. And empire. Gotta have the empire . . .
Sure, America will just ignore the fact that “non-interventionist” Ron Paul has, not once, but twice, accused the Israelis of keeping the Palestinians in concentration camps, employing a very nice allusion to Nazi Germany, very classy. On top of that, foreign affairs genius Ron Paul then repeated these horrible accusations on the air for no less than Press TV, which is Iran’s government-run radical Islamist propaganda channel.
And just today Paul voiced his hope that the GOP nomination race doesn’t run too long because he’s not sure he’ll last. Pure genius, that. Just as he’s getting his usual “it doesn’t count, so let’s throw support at Paul” bump, he let’s America know he’s not physically up to a long noimination campaign. God forbid he have to run for president – he’ll need afternoon naps and stuff.
Ron Paul fans = Charlie Brown approaching a teed up football.
Typical Rino thinking. We’ll ignore every big government program of Newt Romney, We’ll love cap and trade, we’ll fight global warming, we’ll accept the police state programs that use the excuse of “safety” to make us less free, and we’ll agree to bankrupt the country!
Why? Because the only guy would would fight all those things doesn’t kiss any foreign country’s Butt at our expense — including Isreal’s. Hey, You’re from AMERICA. Stop voting like you’re from ISREAL.
You want another Bob Dole? Great. Newt Romney will fit the bill. Four more years of Obama, either way it goes.
If you were really from the party of Jefferson and Madison, you wouldn’t live for the empire. Avoid foreign entanglements.
An America that wants to run the world is necessarily an America that needs to, and wants to, run YOUR LIFE. In every way. Every day.
What happened to “the consent of the governed?” I DON’T CONSENT.
So either you don’t believe my consent is necessary — that makes you a thug — or you’ll have to stop voting for people who insiste they have the right to govern me WITHOUT my consent. You know. Fascists. Democrats. Republicans.
I find it highly comical you think yourself a good salesman for Ron Paul.
You misjudge my intentions. I’m not interested in selling you anything — you’re clearly not the type who re-thinks a position, once indoctrinated.
I’m just pointing out that despite your self-image, you’re just a typical big-government fool, who claims to want freedom and liberty and limited government, but then votes against it on the rare chance he gets to support it.
Obama is THEIR guy, and Newt Romney is OUR guy, so you’re for OUR guy.
You’re typical of the indoctrination of public schools. Big government, Big Empire. America knows best — for the world, and for me.
The only problem with our police state is the wrong guys are running it. It’s time to get our guys in charge of the whip. Go team.
Sad.
Ok, for you fence sitters: here’s the endorsement which will bring you to the Ron Paul side of the fence.
Prominent blogger Andrew Sullivan endorses Ron Paul
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/199479-prominent-blogger-andrew-sullivan-endorses-ron-paul
It’s not for nothing that the Paulies are considered extreme.
“Sullivan, who describes himself as conservative, emphasizes his support for a flat tax, privatization of Social Security, and deficit reduction.”
Yikes. What a wack-job! That IS extreme. No place for these nuts in OUR party . . .
Don’t forget Sullican’s obsession with Sarah Palin’s uterus…
“The only reason Andrew Sullivan is endorsing Ron Paul is because of the spoiler factor. Andrew Sullivan is a hardcore Obama supporter who the liberal media loves to hold up as an authority on American conservatives.
I’ll take Andrew Sullivan’s American political endorsements seriously when he can vote for the next president of the United States and Americans can vote for the next queen of England. In other words, never.”
http://americanglob.com/2011/12/14/andrew-sullivans-endorsement-of-ron-paul-exposes-his-hypocrisy/
Here’s an undies-in-a-twist scenario: For some unknown reason, like a full moon on election or something, things get topsy-turvey with Ron Paul nominated the Republican candidate and Newt or Mitt go third party? What goes down then? Oh man, I can’t imagine any of the candidates accepting RP. Would they become quiet or be loud and vociferous about “the real Republican” on the third party ticket?
Do these Paulzombies Nexus/Lexus his name and go to web sites that have anything negative to say about their demigod? They are like cult members who defend their leader even when no one cares.
I vote my principles and don’t care what the little letter after the name is.
I will not vote for romney and if forced will write someone in.
and for those that say this ensures an obama win…try blaming the gop for that. if they keep thrusting candidates on us that most won’t vote for, don’t blame the voters.
I don’t sell my soul for some damn political strategy.