Aka Rep. Connie Mack (R-Florida) is going to run against Bill Nelson in the 2012 Florida Senate race:
U.S. Rep. Connie Mack unexpectedly signaled late Wednesday that he will enter the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, apparently convinced other candidates cannot defeat Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson….
The other candidates are former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner; former Charlie Crist adviser and interim U.S. Sen. George LeMieux; retired Army colonel Mike McCalister; and former Ruth’s Chris Steak House CEO Craig Miller.
Can he win the nomination and defeat Neslon? How does he stack up against the other Republican candidates? Calling all Florida readers, or those who know about Florida.
Considering this as a possible focus race, so tell me about Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV.
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John J. Miller wrote up a piece on him for National Review back in 2004. http://old.nationalreview.com/miller/miller200406010943.asp
Or was that his dad?
That was his dad.
I have been supporting Adam Hasner as the best conservative candidate. He outraised LeMieux, who has a much higher profile, in Q3 as conservatives down here feel after Rubio they don’t need to take “Crist-like” anointed nonsense from our utterly dysfunctional GOP state leadership.
My focus to date has been on helping a conservative to win, and that seems to be on track with Adam Hasner doing better than expected.
Connie Mack kind of jumbles things up. First, it gives the establishment someone new to rally around, now that they perceive the weakness of LeMieux. I think he was pushed by the establishment who wanted someone higher profile and more moderate than Adam, who they feared couldn’t win (kind of like Rubio couldn’t win).
I think Connie would be better than LeMieux (whose close to the GOP FL corruption of Greer and Crist is enough that I doubt he can win in any circumstances), but not as strong as Hasner, in the Senate.
However, 2012 will be a tough election for Adam as he doesn’t have the charisma or pull of Rubio, and Obama will certainly be focused on getting the vote out in FL in 2012.
Mack has a higher profile.
Some negatives:
http://www.redstate.com/nelbuts/2010/05/02/rep-connie-mack-attacks-arizona/
He endorsed and supported Crist (ugh!).
His wife, Mary Bono Mack (R-CA) was a big supporter of cap-and-trade, I think, and also pegs them as a bit of an inside-the-beltway couple at this point.
Some positives:
His recent Heritage score is quite good.
http://heritageactionscorecard.com/scorecard/index.html#M001155#member
He voted against offshore drilling, admittedly a touchy issue here in FL (which was pro-drilling until the BP accident) and against Cut, Cap and Balance (he’s got a lot of seniors in his district).
And, well, he’s not Bill Nelson.
Overall, no opinion just yet, I need to study up a bit more.
It will be difficult to run as an Washington “outsider.” This guy’s family on both sides is full of Washington insiders, including his 2nd wife…
At this point in the game, it now becomes 3 politicians versus 2 non-politicians in the primary.
Can he win the nomination? The odds are in his favor given his establishment cred. This time around, the Tea Party has gotten a little wiser since 2010. Here in central Florida, we learned the hard way what it takes to get an authentic, effective Tea Party candidate to win the primary. We were too splintered last time, which ended up delivering us now-Congressman Daniel Webster to knock down Alan Grayson. Nice guy, Webster, but he is of the 30-year-politican establishment.
Can he defeat Nelson? Absolutely, IF he wins the primary. Nelson has handed us wonderful potential campaign ad scripts the past three years.
How does he stack up? If voters don’t mind career politicians, then he’s got the advantage. But if the non-politicians get their game on, then he’s in for some competition. I’m thinking of candidate Craig Miller who’s got incredible private sector experience. The other tea party candidate has his heart in the right place, but leaves much to be desired.
Hasner and Lemieux have the political polish, but like Princeton Al mentioned, don’t generate much excitement.
My humble opinion.
What’s the gripe against Webster? So far as I know, he was always a solid conservative at the state level.
I often think Sarah Palin is a political genius.
By not co-incidence Palin is due to speak at a GOP fundraiser Nov 3 in Florida.
Amidst a mighty desperate pushback by Democrats via all means -the numbers in the House & Senate are even more important than the Presidency.
Florida is huge.
The older FL voters will be looking for a stability not revolution . Palin backed Orin Hatch against a TP contender for stability in GOP Senate ranks. In reality experienced members are needed – even though TP might not agree.
Considering the TP people did not back her (66% against ? WTF )she has every right to ignore them.
I think Mack has a god chance for her endorsement. Hatch was mighty glad to get it.
‘god” chance would be great but will have to settle for good chance.
Prof Jacobson …you see this one on WI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=bLSyaNIrjjA
Thanks, here’s the short version, http://youtu.be/7lD9HiwRKTE. Don’t know if this is on TV in Wisconsin, but it should be.
Lots of Philadelphia a’s fans still left in fla
Who’s Jim Demint’s conservative Senate Pac backing here and for 2012 Senate elections
My starting point for Conservative Senate candidates is
the Jim DeMint “Senate Conservatives Fund”
They only have 2 endorsements so far, Ted Cruz in Texas and Josh Mandel in Ohio.
If I’m not mistaken DeMint was pressured by the Senate Leadership to not contest an existing Senate Republican. Alaska.
woops
Senate Conservatives Fund SCF is at http://senateconservatives.com/site/endorsements
Connie Mack has good name recognition. LeMieux hails from Broward County and that could help him here. South Florida is key. Senator Nelson will be tough to beat. He’s entrenched, and he’s known to have voted against estate taxes — a big retiree issue. Hasner is good, and his being Jewish wouldn’t hurt vis a vis the Jewish Democratic voting blocs, but it’s unclear whether he can make the leap from Florida House to U.S. Senate; I think he’s overreaching, and we might be wasting capital. I wish he were running instead for the U.S. House against Ted Deutch.
P.S. on Mack: http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2006/aug/05/rep_macks_divorce_final_settlement_reached/
Mack apparently dumped his wife and two kids when he got into office after touting his ‘family values’ in mailers to the Ft. Myers district that elected him. She now lives in poverty with the kids in Ft. Lauderdale. Mack carried on an affair with Sony Bono’s wife while still married to Ann, and then married Bono only weeks after the divorce.
It could be worse -he might have married Chaz Bono.
One of his former speach writers is a good friend of mine…he says that Connie Mac (the younger) is an idiot who can barely walk and chew gum. He has a lot of skellatons in his closet that will come out to haunt him in a state wide race. He doesn’t do well on the stump and has issues merely reading a speech.
Is he so dumb he can’t spell “skeleton?”