Maybe I have not recovered from witnessing the ability of the nation to delude and deceive itself, as happened in 2008.
I never understood the attraction in the first place, so I’m not believing that when the recovering deluded and deceived enter the voting booth, they will not pull the same lever (or push the same button, or fill in the same line).
So I just can’t find comfort in this:
President Barack Obama’s overall job approval rating has sunk to an all-time low, as American voters disapprove 52 – 42 percent, compared to 47 – 46 percent approval in July, and among whites and men his approval has dropped into the 30s, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Because for reasons which defy logic and science, there’s still this:
For the first time this year, Texas Governor Rick Perry leads President Obama in a national Election 2012 survey. Other Republican candidates trail the president by single digits.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows Perry picking up 44% of the vote while the president earns support from 41%. Given the margin of sampling error (+/- 3 percentage points) and the fact that the election is more than a year away, the race between the two men is effectively a toss-up.
So I will not believe it until it actually happens.
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Comments
“Two-thirds of Democrats continue to approve of Obama’s economic record”
Exactly, what do they like about it ?
@Neo – they’re the ones who own the “Green” plants and GM dealerships that received all the handouts and assistance from the President and his cronies. The other 1/3 are the ones who are actually trying to succeed based solely on their own hard work.
On the main topic of the post, to echo the good Professor’s sentiments/concerns, think about the fact that GW’s ratings at the time of his re-election were roughly the same as BO’s are. The key word being “re-election.”
I’m not a believer, either. Too many daydream believers out there.
LukeHandCool (whose little sister had lunch with Peter Tork when she was still in high school. Shameless monkee).
The presidential nominee of a major party always has a chance- he’s guaranteed 36% of the vote just by having a pulse. I mean, look at the utter disaster of a candidate John McCain was, and he still got a bigger percentage of the vote than Clinton did the first time around.
The power of the presidency, along with the all-in support of the media, means Obama isn’t going to be a pushover by any stretch of the imagination. But he’s badly wounded, and given the economic situation, will probably only become more so. Still, its probably safe to say the man has 45% of the vote sewed up, no matter what. And voter fraud is going to be astronomical.
But he is beatable. I think Perry, and most likely Romney, can beat him (Perry with a potential for a big win, Romney much closer). All the rest- as much as I like most of them-, announced or unannounced, will hand him another term.
This race is going to come down to who we select as a nominee. I hope everyone thinks long and hard about what’s at stake when they pull the lever come primary time.
The key will be likability. Perry has superficial charm that Romney lacks, although they tie on good hair and looks. One man appears comfortable with himself, the danger may be it comes across as slickness. While the latter seems insincere no matter what he says, which is a problem Huntsman has as well.
The media was rather vile to McCain. They even went looking for his ancestors that owned slaves and located his black relatives. His dark skinned adopted daughter was persecuted. So, I expect no less in their treatment of the Republican nominee.
Just my impressions; I’m no election forecaster.
I think that fake-iness problem you allude to with Romney is a problem, and it plays into the whole “he’s weird” angle that will get played up. Personally, I think people underestimate the anti-Mormon jihad the left is going to launch against Romney if he’s the nominee, and I think they underestimate just how successful it potentially will be. Is that fair? Absolutely not. Its wrong and despicable. But its called politics, not fairitics.
It think Palin and Bachmann will be effectively lampooned into staggering losses. Again, fair has nothing to do with it. The media and hollywood will be ruthless to them in ways not yet even imagined.
As for the rest of the field, unless something huge changes, they’re just background noise.
Look, I’m not pretending that I’m not personally leaning hard towards Perry. I am. But is because I feel certain he can win, and do so by a convincing margin. I don’t get that feeling about anyone else. I think he’s got that indefinable “it”. And having “it” matters. Ask Obama.
I don’t think it’s so much that he’s a Mormon as the fact that he can’t be trusted. He changes like the wind because he’s not a real Republican; maybe not even a RINO. He’s a phony. Because the elite Republicans like him, that gives me more reason to vote for Perry. I’d much rather vote for Palin though.
I have a large problem with Perry’s crony capitalism. Morals, values, ethics, integrity are important. I don’t care about his hair. It’s time to vet Perry. The Republicans are cheerleading for him and are just as guilty as the other side of the aisle was in not vetting Obama in 2008. That said, Romney has crony capitalist problems also. Is this what the GOP is going to become the crony capitalist party? We already have that with Obama.
Examples?
The election forecasters aren’t that great at it, so your opinion is just as good as theirs.
I never understood the attraction in the first place…
Was it attraction or repulsion? Right before the financial crisis, McCain had taken a small lead in the polls. As the crisis broke, McCain’s behavior was appallingly erratic whereas Obama maintained his (what we now know to be phony) calm.
McCain was going for a historic upset. When you make an unforced major error under those conditions, the game is over.
The 2012 race will be won and lost by who inspires voters to turn out and who puts them to sleep. Right now Oblahblah puts three of the four main camps of his base to sleep. That might not be true next year, depending on lots of things over which few rational people have much control.
The GOP needs a candidate who will bring out conservatives, the TP and the “pro” voters that stayed home in 2008 without stirring up too many “antis”. Generally agree with Cowboy Curtis’s assessment, with this caveat: Palin has already demonstrated an amazing ability to inspire previously inactive or new voters. And even today she’s the (non)candidate most feared by the left.
So at this stage I’m leaning toward her over Perry if she runs, or for him if she doesn’t. But I’m still alert for a whiff of who the left and the RINOs prefers the GOP to run and will vigorously resist that candidate, period.
Concur. Never underestimate the power of delusion or the desire to be deceived. The greatest saints and sages can be upended in a trice by delusion and not even know it happened. Ordinary people spend their lives submerged in it thinking themselves hot stuff (as delusion wishes them to).
This hag requires external leverage to get it off Americans’ back. Voting cannot do it, nor the US military, nor Congress, nor armed or legal insurrection, nor a general uprising. The leverage required to remove it is external to the paralysis induced by this hag of delusion.
It doesn’t matter who we nominate, the Donks and the media (but I repeat myself) will savage him or her. I still believe that a big part of why McCain lost was because he thought the media would still support him as they did when he was stabbing Bush and the rest of the Republican Party in the back.
I do not believe Perry will have that delusion as the media have hatted him every minute of the ten years he’s served as Governor.
What do I know, though. I’m just a Texan, all the folks that live elsewhere understand that building a humongous wall on the Texas border with Mexico would cut off tall the ranchers and farmers who water stock from the banks of the Rio Grande. It would also make it impossible to water the crops of south Texas bringing a severe shortage of both citrus and winter fresh vegetables. No one will remember this, though, they’ll only know that Perry won’t control the border!!!!!111!!!ELEVENTY!