Carl at Israel Matzav has given Mahmoud Abbas, aka Abu Mazen, the nickame “Abu Bluff.”
The trip by Abbas to the U.N. this week ostensibly to obtain recognition of a Palestinian state is another bluff. Abbas doesn’t even have the support of his own people, as Hamas which controls Gaza and has great influence on the street in the West Bank is dead set against the move.
Abbas also knows that the U.S. will veto any move in the Security Council, as the U.S. position is that the creation of a state with defined borders can only be accomplished through negotiation, which necessarily would include recognizing Israel as a Jewish state and giving up claims for Palestinian refugees and their descendants to return to Israel proper. As posted earlier today, Abbas rejects these conditions.
The General Assembly can pass whatever it wants, but it will not change the facts on the ground or have any enforceable mechanism. And as it stands now, with Abbas rejecting all the terms essential to ending the conflict, a significant number of Western countries will vote against the move even in the General Assembly. Forcing a U.S. veto also will alienate the Obama administration and give strength to those in Congress seeking to cut off funding of the Palestinian Authority.
Abu Bluff is like the dog about to catch the car, the car being a U.S. veto in the Security Council.
So Abu Bluff desperately is seeking a way out, now offering to avoid the Security Council for a European agreement to vote with him in the General Assembly:
Palestinian Authority envoy in Germany Saleh Abdel-Shafi claimed Sunday that the Palestinians will drop their bid to achieve full UN membership in exchange for European Union recognition of the PA as a UN observer state at the General Assembly.
“We are still negotiating with the Europeans,” Abdel-Shafi told the Financial Times Deutschland. “We’ll be willing to forgo the Security Council bid if European states support us at the Assembly vote,” he said.
Call Abu Bluff’s bluff.
Maybe then it will sink in at least to the non-Hamas Palestinians that recognizing Israel as a Jewish state, giving up the demographic weapon, and coming to grips with history is the only road.
Update: Read Caroline Glick’s The Palestinian obsession:
Why have the senior peace-processors of Washington and Europe descended on Jerusalem and Ramallah, begging and pleading with the Palestinians to cancel their plans?
Why have the Americans and the Europeans been pressuring Israel to make massive concessions to the Palestinians in order to convince them to put out the diplomatic fire there have set at the UN?
Why are the White House and the State Department telling the media that the US will consider it a major diplomatic embarrassment if the Palestinians go through with their threats? Why in short, do the Americans and the Europeans care about this?
Also, Jeffrey Goldberg:
What, then, is Abbas’s true goal? It may be nothing more than an attempt to ensure his legacy, or to marginalize rivals like Fayyad. But he recently said something revealing: “We are going to complain that as Palestinians we have been under occupation for 63 years.”
The occupation, as it is generally understood, did not begin 63 years ago. Israel conquered the West Bank and Gaza 44 years ago. Sixty-three years ago is when Israel itself was founded. If Abbas’s goal at the UN is the enfranchisement of his people, then he will not succeed. If his goal to demonize and delegitimize his enemy, then he very well might.
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Comments
Hope on, hope ever. We are not talking about reasonable people with reasonable requests. We are talking about cunning people who aren’t very smart. How could they be and still be called refugees after more than 60 years. And their towns called refugee camps for the same length of time. This will never be resolved. These people will not give up and Israel can’t give up.
Too bad Obama has shown he doesn’t know how to play poker.
Rational offers and counteroffers really are only of use if one is negotiating with someone rational and with reason(s) to arrive at an agreement.
The “Palestinians” are neither and have none.
Though the Media RARELY mentions it, the FACT that they won’t recognize Israel’s right to exist (which they COULD do as Islam offers taqqiya as a legitimate tactic to achieve an end that in the long run advances Islam or the goal of ummah. And the “Palestine” conflict is ALL about Islam) is an indicator of the degree of irrational hatred and unwillingness to negotiate in good faith that exists on the part of “Palestinians”.
Our Bower In Chief gave them sufficient signals (whether intended as such or not) that the U.S. will acquiesce to MOST ANY covert (and seemingly justifiable) assault upon Israel’s sovereignty and physical borders.
They’ve taken these steps in the hopes that this will give them a wedge to pry open Israel’s resoluteness and will press on regardless of any further statements claiming to be opposed to these actions.
The thinking in the WH probably goes something like “let’s let the Palestinians apply more pressure on Israel and then we’ll step in as “honest brokers” to bring about some “peace” agreement.
Of course anyone with an ounce of sense and an ability to read history and form judgments will realize that the “Palestinians” will NEVER live up to ANY agreement that entails the continued existence of Israel.
I pray that Israel will stand firm. Sadly she must stand firm against the manipulations and perfidy of our government.
Granting I am a cynical bugger, but I think you are too optimistic.
1. Will there be a US veto? I think the odds are against it. Buraq Hussein is in a position where if he vetoes the motion, his own Leftist, Israel hating base will go all Chiroptera Lunarii which he can ill afford. Balancing that, if he allows the motion to pass, he will only infuriate Conservatives, Christians, and some independents. Of his own base, he risks losing the Orthodox Jews who are already slipping away. However they are a minuscule portion of the American Jewish population. Most American Jews are either non-observant, or minimally so; and attached more firmly to the Left than they are to the Torah. American Jews always support Democrat administrations forcing concessions and suicide on Israel, and are in the main anti-Israel.
Obama already has the hatred of Conservatives, Christians, and some independents. And has shown that he has no problem in forcing things that Americans do not want down their throats. I suspect that there will be an abstention by the US.
2. China, France, Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States are the permanent members of the Security Council, the ones with the veto.
It is noteworthy that Germany is serving a term as a two-year member on the Security Council. Germany has indicated that it is seeking a “coordinated European response”, which would mean that it is looking to corral Bosnia and Herzogovinia and Portugal [also current Council members] to go along with France. Noting that Lebanon is also a member [Hezbollah controlled], if a veto can be avoided, and with Gabon, Nigeria, and South Africa eminently persuadable, Israel would be scrod in the Security Council.
3. Cameron in the UK has already indicated that they may well break with the US if the US issues a veto. That means an abstention or vote for a Palestinian state and the inevitable attack on Israel. France is virulently anti-Semitic and anti-Israel and has materially helped the Hezbollah prepare militarily to attack Israel. That, and France would have to deal with internal problems with its “unidentified youths” from the Banlieus and the Zones Urbain Sensibiles if they vetoed. A French abstention or a vote in favor would serve both French foreign and domestic policy. And prevent riots that would further complicate the Eurozone’s difficulties. No veto there.
China and Russia have been actively assisting the Arab states in preparing strategic weapons to use against Israel. No veto there.
Israel stands alone, without allies.
Israel’s sole choice will be whether take on the Palestinian state and its supporters immediately upon the declaration, crushing them and ride out the attacks by the rest of the world; or to wait until after the Palestinians launch further attacks on Israel to try to do so. The rational choice would be to strike first, overwhelmingly. The likely choice will be to give the world a chance to destroy Israel first.
Subotai Bahadur
Hamas won the elections. The west tried to prop up the lesser evil -pouring billions of aid into The West Bank/Fatah.. Of course it was filtered over to Hamas in Gaza anyhow.
Subatai- your post is too long to read. However I am not so sure of China & Russia.China is not at all emotional & Russia has many expatriots in Israel.
I would not count on their being in either camp. They might surprise.
I’m curious about something: does the state of “Palestine” the PLO/Fatah are advocating for official recognition include all of the land “between the River and the Sea” as it does on their propaganda? Will the State of Israel henceforth be labeled “occupied Palestine” on UN maps and documents?
If not, wouldn’t Abbas and his cohorts be abandoning “the dreams of the Palestinian People” and violating their own charter (and that of Hamas)? I see the possibility of serious internal divisions that could erupt into civil war.
Israel may need to do nothing while the nascent Palestine destroys itself.
bwahaha….
You know why this is happening….
Democrats losing NY-9 to republican Turner sent a vicious messege to Democrats and the 0bama administration…
If they continue along the lines of Pro-muslim/anti-jewish policies and notably the tax the wealthy or tax the rich policies (a millionaire tax? liberals tried this in maryland
look up “Millionaires Gone Missing” on google
…..and you will see the ruined results of that.
if this is the course he keeps headed into 2012
can kiss 0bama’s presidency goodbye.