Tonight, Rasmussen will be polling the Massachusetts Senate special election.
Unfortunately, some prominent right-wing commentators and almost the entire Republican establishment have decided to sit this one out unless and until there was a reputable public poll showing that Scott Brown was within striking distance of Martha Coakley.
What foolishness. By sitting this one out these people have increased the likelihood that this first poll will not be favorable to Brown. Anyone ever hear of a self-fulfilling prophecy?
Brown has been gaining momentum in the past three weeks, as his candidacy has gone viral. Money enough for statewide advertising to increase his name recognition and demonstrate policy differences is pouring in, but the effects will not be seen until election day. Anyone ever hear of Doug Hoffman’s late surge in NY-23?
Obviously, I can’t predict what Rasmussen’s poll will show. But in this unique circumstance, with Coakley’s greater name recognition, and Brown’s rising candidacy, the establishment has set us up for a fall should this first poll be negative.
The election is not tonight. But if the Republican establishment has its way, it will be.
Update: The Weekly Standard is reporting results of a private poll by a reputable polling organization showing Brown down by 11%, and less in another private poll which focused on people most likely to vote. If true, that would be wonderful news because motivation of the base and the independents would be key. But everyone will be looking at Rasmussen. (via HotAir)
And, PPP is estimating (not polling) that the race will be tight, just 2-3% apart. If Rasmussen confirms that the race is just single digits apart, it would be an earthquake.
And, HillBuzz is suspicious of why Rasmussen chose to poll now, and says we need to push on regardless.