Newsom’s Effort to Flip Five Red Seats May Fall Short of his Expectations

Newsom’s Effort to Flip Five Red Seats May Fall Short of his Expectations

In response to Texas’s mid-decade redistricting plan, which was intended to net Republicans five additional House seats in the 2026 midterms, California Democrats unveiled a new congressional map of their own designed to flip five currently Republican-held districts blue. The Golden State currently has 52 congressional districts, with Democrats controlling 43 and Republicans just nine. The hope was that the new map would reduce Republican representation in Congress to just four districts or less than 8% of California’s congressional delegation.

Yet while California is undeniably a deep-blue state, President Trump still won nearly 40% of the vote there in 2024. This raises questions about whether such an aggressive partisan redraw accurately reflects the state’s political landscape.

The redraw targeted the following five Republican-held districts: District 1 (Rep. Doug LaMalfa), District 3 (Rep. Kevin Kiley), District 22 (Rep. David Valadao), District 41 (Rep. Ken Calvert), and District 48 (Rep. Darrell Issa).

Unfortunately for California Gov. Gavin Newsom, the results might fall short of his expectations. Citing early returns from Tuesday’s primaries, RealClearPolitics‘ Susan Crabtree made the case that “California voters appear to have poured cold water on at least some of those plans.”

“District by district,” she said, “the picture emerging is one of Republican resilience – and in some cases, a surprising Democratic collapse in races Newsom’s allies had hoped to turn.”

She reviewed the latest developments in each district affected by the new map.

In the newly redrawn CA-06, Rep. Kevin Kiley, who announced in March that he was switching his political affiliation from Republican to independent (but would continue to caucus with the GOP), strongly opposes gerrymandering on both sides of the political aisle.

Crabtree reported that Kiley outperformed expectations in his primary and will likely advance to the general election. Republican Michael Stansfield is currently in second place, while Democrat Dick Pan trails. She noted that, “it could wind up a clean Democratic shutout.”

On Thursday, Kiley told ABC News, “We are not going to let self-serving politicians take away the area’s representation. We’re fighting back against Newsom’s gerrymander in California, and then we’ll end this plague on our democracy nationwide.”

We are not going to let self-serving politicians take away our area's representation. We're fighting back against Newsom's gerrymander in California, and then we'll end this plague on our democracy nationwide. pic.twitter.com/N2cJDALbsn

— Kevin Kiley (@KevinKileyCA) June 5, 2026

Republican Rep. Darrell Issa, who currently represents CA-48, is retiring. Crabtree explained:

San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, a popular longtime Republican and former Navy pilot, jumped into the race with strong party backing.

In Tuesday’s primary, Desmond emerged with a more than 20-point lead ahead of Democratic San Diego City Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert.

…

The other Democrat in the race, Ammar Campa-Najjar, a Naval reservist, former Obama Labor Department official, and grandson of a Palestinian, has amassed only 9.7% of the vote so far. He was backed by San Diego Rep. Sara Jacobs’ billionaire grandfather, Qualcomm founder Irwin Jacobs, who poured at least $800,000 into the race.

It marked the fourth election loss in row after members of the Jacobs family bankrolled two prior runs for Congress and another failed campaign for mayor of Chula Vista.

In CA-22, with 54% of the vote counted, incumbent Republican Rep. David Valadao was in first place with 44.5%. Crabtree noted:

His two challengers split the Democratic vote with progressive Randy Villegas holding second place at roughly 29.8% of the vote, while Assemblywoman Dr. Jasmeet Bains trailed at 25.7%. If Villegas holds on to his second-place finish he could consolidate the Democratic vote to make the fight for control of the seat incredibly competitive.

Yet, it’s unclear whether the Central Valley voters would back such a liberal Democrat against Valadao, a GOP centrist who voted to impeach Trump in 2021, come November.

It remains a competitive district, but Valadao might pull it off.

In the newly drawn CA-40, two Republicans, incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert and former Rep. Young Kim, appear headed for a general-election showdown, ensuring the seat remains in GOP hands.

Finally, Crabtree assessed the situation in CA-40, which she said “Democrats intentionally created as a Republican district,” and said it will likely remain in Republican hands.

Rep. Ken Calvert, a MAGA-aligned incumbent first elected to Congress in 1993 had his old district essentially dissolved by Proposition 50’s gerrymandering. Calvert relocated and ran in the new CA-40, created from a big portion of the one previously held by Rep. Young Kim, a more moderate Republican representing the area since 2021.

Early returns show both Republicans in the top two positions, with Calvert leading Kim 35.9% to 21.3%. Instead of trying to out-MAGA Calvert, Kim could shift left and court Democratic crossover voters to try to beat Calvert in the general, but it will be difficult.

Due to the sudden death of longtime Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa, who represented CA-01, the story is somewhat murkier. Following LaMalfa’s death, Republican state Assemblyman James Gallagher won a special election with 62.4% of the vote. He defeated Democratic state Sen. Mike McGuire and Democratic candidate Audrey Denney, who “received 18% of the vote.”

According to Crabtree:

As of Thursday night, Gallagher was also leading the Tuesday primary with 46.6% of the vote to McGuire’s 38.4%, with Denney running far behind at 13.1%.

Strickland sees a ready-made line of attack against McGuire, who he said drew a map to benefit himself personally and predicted it would backfire.

“The voters aren’t going to be all excited that he tried to pick his own district,” he said.

Gallagher thanked voters Tuesday night and highlighted McGuire’s role in the gerrymandering process.

While millions of primary ballots remain uncounted, the state’s peculiar vote-counting process grinds on. We’ve seen the initial strength of Republican candidates Steve Hilton and Spencer Pratt narrow as additional votes are tallied. Still, the early returns from the five new districts indicate that several GOP candidates targeted by Democrats remain well-positioned heading into November, and that Newsom’s bid to turn five red seats blue may be tougher than he expected.

Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on LinkedIn.

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