CNN Data Analyst: GOP Net Popularity Has Risen During Shutdown

CNN Data Analyst: GOP Net Popularity Has Risen During Shutdown

It never fails that in the midst of every government shutdown, congressional Republicans always get the blame and their approval ratings start dropping, no matter if they’re in the minority or the majority.

Part of that is due to the relentless pounding they typically take from Democrats and an ineffective, and the other is, of course, the mainstream media marching in lockstep with that narrative.

Polling on who is most to blame this time around is mixed, with some showing Republicans and President Trump with slightly more blame than Democrats, and others showing an even split between all three.

But when it comes to net favorability ratings pre-shutdown versus during the shutdown, polling averages show the GOP overall net favorability up by two points and the congressional GOP net favorability up by five points, according to CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten:

ENTEN: Yes, you might think, given that the Republicans are in charge of both the House and the Senate, that a government shutdown might actually hurt the Republican brand. But, in fact, it hasn’t. If anything, it’s been helped a little bit.

Take a look here. The shift in net popularity versus pre-shutdown. Among the — when we’re looking at the Republican Party overall, that brand [is] actually up two points. That’s within the margin of error. But clearly it hasn’t dropped.

Come over to this side of the screen. Look at the net approval ratings for Republicans in Congress. It’s actually up five points since pre-shutdown. So, what we’re seeing here is the Republican brand in Congress has actually improved somewhat compared to where we were pre-shutdown, despite the fact that Republicans control.

And that’s the math that John Thune and Mike Johnson are looking at is, hey, why should we give, electorally speaking, when our brand has actually improved a little bit?

What is especially noteworthy is that this improvement in standing was not just brought about by an increase in favorability among GOP voters but also among independent voters by a significant number:

All right, change in the Republican Congress’s net approval rating versus pre-shutdown. It’s rallying the base for sure. Look at this, the net approval rating up 12 points versus pre-shutdown.

But it’s not just with the base. It’s also with the middle of the electorate. Look at this. Among independents, it’s up eight points as well. So, we’ve got a situation here where Republicans, with the shutdown, are actually rallying their base. But it’s also something that’s not hurting them with the folks in the middle. If anything, it’s helping them with folks in the middle.

And this is the type of math that if you’re Republicans, you like to see, right? Because something could rally the base but alienate those in the middle, or something could rally those in the middle but alienate the base.

As to where Democrats are right now, Enten noted that while they’re up three points on the generic congressional ballot right now, that’s a sharp downward swing from where they were at this stage during Trump’s first presidency:

… the generic congressional ballot, which traditionally Democrats have done really well on. And if you look at this point, back when Trump was president the first time around, Democrats were up 11 points. Look at where it is now. Democrats are ahead, but they’re actually only up three points. This is, in fact, the worst position Democrats have been on in a generic ballot at this point in a midterm when there was a Republican president in the last 20 years. And this is no different from pre-shutdown. So, Republicans aren’t losing on this metric either. They become more popular and they’re actually in a pretty good position for them historically when it comes to the generic congressional ballot.

[…]

This is a concerning number for Democrats because it’s considerably worse than they traditionally do in midterm elections when there’s a Republican president.

Watch:

CNN’s Harry Enten: GOP Approval Rating Is UP During Government Shutdown

“Look at the net approval ratings for Republicans in Congress. It's actually up five points since pre- shutdown. So, what we're seeing here is the Republican brand in Congress has actually improved somewhat… pic.twitter.com/hJRSx3WSgN

— Mr Producer (@RichSementa) October 28, 2025

In other words, Democrats seem to be losing the PR war on this the longer the shutdown drags out. That might be why there’s talk of cracks forming in the Schumer shutdown coalition in the Senate. We’ll find out soon enough.

– Stacey Matthews has also written under the pseudonym “Sister Toldjah” and can be reached via X. –

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