Election Results – President
We will update the results as they come in.
We will be covering the election results as meaningful numbers come in.
Our focus will be on the key swing states that will determine the outcome: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Plus two states of interest that may give us a sign of how the night is going (New Hampshire and Virginia), and Florida just because. NOT ALL STATES WILL FINALIZE TONIGHT, we have been warned.
General observations/updates will be at the bottom of this post. We have a separate post for Senate and House results.
You can follow along LIVE on these YouTube streams:
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Arizona (9 p.m. ET)
Arizona is close, but "leaning" Trump pic.twitter.com/hisV4a8SQt
— William A. Jacobson (@wajacobson) November 6, 2024
Florida (7 p.m. ET., 8 p.m. in Pandhandle)
🔴BREAKING: Trump wins Florida
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 6, 2024
Georgia (7 p.m. ET)
Looks like Georgia is close to over pic.twitter.com/t4OuNz6sz0
— William A. Jacobson (@wajacobson) November 6, 2024
Michigan (9 p.m. ET most of the state)
Michigan calling pic.twitter.com/TC9qZL1Qq2
— William A. Jacobson (@wajacobson) November 6, 2024
Nevada (10 p.m. Eastern)
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New Hampshire (8 p.m. ET)
Decision Desk HQ projects Kamala Harris wins the Presidential election in New Hampshire.
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 6, 2024
North Carolina (7:30 p.m. ET)
NC goes Trump pic.twitter.com/CGLdYsFTs5
— William A. Jacobson (@wajacobson) November 6, 2024
Pennsylvania (8 p.m. ET)
— William A. Jacobson (@wajacobson) November 6, 2024
Virginia (7 p.m. ET)
Decision Desk HQ projects Kamala Harris wins the Presidential election in Virginia.
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 6, 2024
Wisconsin (9 p.m. ET)
Wisconsin getting on board pic.twitter.com/g5ySQaBpXW
— William A. Jacobson (@wajacobson) November 6, 2024
GENERAL UPDATES:
— William A. Jacobson (@wajacobson) November 6, 2024
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Comments
What I see is that pretty much everybody agrees Trump is winning, but all the Democrats are out ‘cautioning’ that we ‘may not know’ the results for days.
“Democrats are out ‘cautioning’ that we ‘may not know’ the results for days.”
Suddenly the Democrats are the party of caution.
Reply to Olinser.
Pennsylvania has a number of polling places that will not close until later.
Georgia too.
Future kids will read history books and wonder what happened between 2020 and 2024.
Biden “happened!”
Exit polls: “What are the top three issues that concern you?”
Conservatives/Republicans:
1. Economy
2. Immigration
3. Direction of the country.
Democrats:
1. Abortion
2. Abortion
3. Abortion
1a. Hitler
2a. Fascist
3a. Satan
Democrat stance. oops!
The interesting thing in Florida is how the independents break.
Particularly in Duval County.
CNN is reporting that in Georgia, independents are voting massively for Trump.
Exit polling showing Trump at 25% w black men and 9% w black women. In 2020 he was at 13% black men and 5% black women. IOW not just outperforming expectations but doing about 2x as well as in ’20 among all black voters. If it holds up…..gonna be a rough night for Harris.
That is big. No Repuyblican has polled that high since miod 1900s.
I believe these levels for a GoP Presidential candidate would be the best since LBJ /Great Society.
There is some indication that nationwide turnout will exceed 2020 levels. If that’s true and Trump still prevails, it will be a remarkable achievement. How remarkable? No GOP nominee has won the presidency when turnout was > 59% since 1956.
Correction: 1968.
VA is interesting, 45%+ in and Trump even+/- but the big d/prog counties in NOVA vote already in that tabulation. VA may, possibly be in play.
And ten minutes later DD HQ calls VA for Harris. Weird. 50% in to include NOVA and DJT up in raw vote total but called for Harris, oh well they make the big bucks and I’m an amateur.
They called Illinois with only 9% reported.
I know, I know.
But it is still wrong.
NH hasn’t been called. Harris was up big back in Sept. Trump looks to be running about 4% behind the performance of K Ayotte GoP candidate in the Gov race. That this hasn’t been called yet is very good news for DJT.
Now NH called for Harris…but it took way too long for any comfort for Harris team. She appears to be underperforming 4% what Biden did across the board. If that holds Nationwide Trump wins.
Only 35% of the vote is counted in NH though
50% of the votes counted and only 12,000 votes between them, the media call Virginia for Harris.
how?
Because shut up.
I don’t trust early calls like that. Unless you’re above 60-40 and a good chunk is in, I’m not going to say it’s a done deal.
agreed
polymarket.com, which I think is a major betting market, had Trump up 61/39 before any polls closed. It is 71/29 right now.
Polymarket and Kalshi are basically the only 2 ones worth looking at.
Since 2 PM Kalshi has gone from 57% Trump to 69% Trump, and Polymarket has gone from 62% Trump to 73% Trump.
Those 2 markets are now at 82% and 84% respectively for Trump. Polymarket has Trump at 60% on the popular vote, which I think is important to also win, although legally irrelevant. But don’t forget that Trump was winning in 2020 until the middle of the night vote dump for Biden.
I don’t know if Trump ends up with more than 280-EVs. But, I think there’s a real chance he wins NPV…particularly if his remarkable improvement with black and Latino men continues as the vote totals begin to come back from plains and western states.
DD does not sound happy, and are explaining not how Harris is losing but how Trump is winning.
Went to bed in 2020 and woke up to the opposite. Not saying that will happen, but there is almost too much info. It looks and sounds good, however. Having to wait for several days is unacceptable.
tomorrow: “we found 20 million in the trunk of an old Datsun overnight an all were for Harris”
Some wild changes in the DDHQ US wide vote total for Trump and Biden. They had Trump with 90M, then 72M, then 50 some M and now 49.1M
Ha, Trump and Harris, lol
And now 43M – somebody has some programming bugs
What, now 31M????
It was 60 million Trump, 49 million Harris a minute ago
PA or WI will close the case.
Pretty obvious why PA found a way to delay reporting.
PA now has Trump in the lead
It looks like he’s won it even without PA. He’s ahead in GA, NV, AZ, and WI.
Wisconsin would settle it.
WI results went from showing a Trump landslide with 95% in to less than 50% and a close race while I was watching. Serious glitching? shenanigans?
This NYT model is the one that predicted a Trump win in 2016.
They didn’t use it in 2020.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi have Trump over 80% to win MICHIGAN.
It is well and truly over.
Polymarket is at 93% and NY Times model at 87%. It also looks like the Republicans retain control of the House and gain as many as 5 seats in the Senate. They are also favorites to win the popular vote.
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