Five Things to Watch in Early Returns Tonight
An early night and a clear decisive victory would be best for the country. Will we get it?
It’s hard to believe that four more years have passed and election day 2024 is finally here. While there have been many polls suggesting that this is going to be a close election, I’m not sure I believe it. We’ll soon find out.
In the meantime, I have five suggestions for things to watch for early on tonight.
1. New Hampshire
New Hampshire has not voted Republican in a presidential election since it went for George W. Bush in 2004. That could change this year. Over the last few weeks, Donald Trump has held a rally in the state and high-profile Democrats like Bill Clinton and Joe Biden have campaigned there for Kamala Harris. All of this activity suggests that both sides believe the Granite State is in play.
Last night, just after midnight, Dixville Notch held their famous election vote and it was split, three for Trump and three for Harris. Biden won all six votes in 2020. New Hampshire’s voting results will likely be tallied and posted early in the evening. If the state goes for Trump, it could be indicative of a Trump win.
2. Virginia
Like New Hampshire, Virginia has not voted Republican in a presidential election since 2004, but multiple polls in recent months have shown the race to be very close there. Despite efforts by the Biden/Harris administration, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin has fought to keep the voter rolls clean and accurate.
Also, don’t forget that Virginia has been ground zero for the parents’ rights movement in education. The people involved in that effort are surely voting for Trump.
Like New Hampshire, I expect Virginia’s election results to be posted in a timely fashion. If it goes for Trump, that should set off alarm bells at the Harris campaign headquarters.
3. Pennsylvania
We have been warned that Pennsylvania may need days to determine who won the state, but what if that doesn’t happen? What if the result is so obvious that the race is called before midnight, as it should be? Philadelphia is the place to watch. If the race is even close there, the Keystone State is likely going to Trump. If the state totals are close and they announce that they are going to need to count votes for days, we will know what that means. It won’t mean that Trump will ultimately lose the state, but there will be an effort by Democrats to count their way to a win.
4. New Jersey
I do not expect Trump to win New Jersey, but I do expect it to be closer than many people assume. Think back to the 2021 governor race in New Jersey. Republican Jack Ciattarelli did better than anyone thought he would. At one point on election night, it even looked like Ciattarelli might win. If Trump does well in New Jersey, that could be an indicator. If he somehow pulls off the seemingly impossible and wins the Garden State, we will be in Trump landslide territory.
5. Liberal Media Mood
As you watch the election returns come in on your preferred media outlet, be sure to switch to CNN or MSNBC at some point. You will get a sense of how the election is going based purely on the mood of the people on the set. Remember that these networks are given information over the wires before the public. If the mood on these networks is somber or downright funereal, that will speak volumes about where things are going.
Also, watch for these networks to lay the groundwork for delayed results. They would love for nothing more than this to be dragged on for days. If states are being called quickly and decisively, that will bode well for Trump.
DONATE
Donations tax deductible
to the full extent allowed by law.
Comments
america has embraced socialism
that is a statistical fact
we have allowed the fear of street rioting etc to push aside our freedoms so that the tribes can be appeased
More to watch:
6. Georgia.
Fulton and Cobb counties again will be the fulcrum in this state. If Cobb is evenly split it will suggest a Trump victory. If Fulton delays their count again expect the Democrats to try to count their way to a win.
7. North Carolina.
We don’t yet know for sure what the impact of Hurricane Helene will be — will it suppress the vote in heavily-red (except for Asheville of course) western NC, or will it have enraged the red voters across the state due to FEMA incompetence? Look for heavier than usual voting in the central and eastern part of the state as a clue for the latter.
8. Nevada
Early voting there suggests a big Republican win, so look carefully at Clark County returns. The Dems need better than 70% there to offset the rest of the state
9. Arizona
Will Maricopa County again melt down? The issue for election watchers isn’t what the county eventually does, it’s how quickly it reports. There’s a big Senate race there with the Dem in front by a couple of points, and that might drag the state to Harris. Watch the returns from Maricopa.
10. Iowa
Nah, just kidding, but since the NYT and the Des Moines Register put forward their foolish ‘poll’ over the weekend, we can watch Iowa with some joy as it goes solidly red.
I agree with your 6 and 7. NC and GA have been truly been swinging with each election outcome and have been trending more and more purple.
If Trump doesn’t have a strong performance in these two states, it could be a very long election. If he’s a clear winner tonight, then we can turn our sights to the rust belt and maybe flirt with NH, Maine, and Virginia.
I think the ‘boarded up store fronts in leftist crap hole strongholds across the nation’ is my new favorite polling cross tab.
Hide store fronts aren’t boarded up. They are prepped for the Party of Joy as they “celebrate” the outcome of today’s election.
Harris got a neck like a linebacker. 🙂
According to Doug Emhoff, it’s because “Kamala does what she always does. Puts her head down and Gets to Work!”
I predict it’s decided by midnight EST.
If he wins WI & MI, then I think it will be too. Unfortunately, it’s unlikely we’ll get final results in PA, AZ & NV tonight and because the vast majority of the outstanding vote will likely be located in Philly, Maricopa & Clark County, it’s going to be impossible to know who won and who ‘won’ those states until those cities/counties report their final numbers.
NC, Virginia…
I’m presuming he’s winning NC…because if he doesn’t, he’ll almost certainly lose GA; he did worse in GA in 2020 than he did in NC. If he wins NC, GA, WI & MI, it’s over. PA, AZ and VA would all be nice particularly considering there are three critical Senate races that might get caught in Trump’s coattails if he wins those states. I think his chances are actually better in both AZ and PA. BUT, we’re unlikely to know the results in those races for a day or two…or maybe even longer depending on how close they are.
In Plains Ga, Jimmy Carter is anxiously waiting for good news that will never come.
Prediction: Poor man will have to wait until he is 104 for the results of the next election.
Guam straw poll results are in. Trump lost 46-50. Seems bad, right? Nope. In the same straw poll in 2016, Trump lost 24-71. He lost in 2020 as well, but ‘only’ by 15-points.
Guam legislature also flipped to GOP making it the first time Republicans have controlled the Guam statehouse since 2008.
The reason Guam flipped is because all the Democrats were on one side of the island.
Guam must have tipped over by now. It’s too heavy.
How much split ticket voting will occur in states like Ohio and Montana. Straight line party voters will flip those seats. Then add in Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan.
Like wise in Texas and Florida, the dems dumped a lot of money into those senate races.
That is the $25K question. In Ohio during the 1980s, Ohio voters LOVED to ticket-split, electing and reelecting Reagan and then GHWB by significant margins and then do the same for two of the most liberal Senators in Glenn and Metzenbaum. But, polling seems to indicate that in all the states you’ve mentioned, the Senate races are very, very close. Historically, when they’re this close, coat-tails become a thing. We’ll see if that plays out tonight.
BTW, it didn’t help Cruz that PAC McConnell controls (the largest GOP Congressional PAC) didn’t spend a DIME in Texas.
They just announced that R Ayotte won governor of New Hampshire. But not even competitive for POTUS?
I reside in NJ near Trenton, Acela corridor. Everyday the Early Voting Lines were long, 1-2 hour waits. I was shocked. Most in the line looked like deplorable troublemakers taking out their garbage. I doubt a Harris voter would wait in a line for an hour to vote for her.
Florida is not in play, but Florida announces vote totals by party affiliation in real time.
It’s almost 3:00 pm, and Democrats have not shown up in number.
“5. Liberal Media Mood; As you watch the election returns come in on your preferred media outlet, be sure to switch to CNN or MSNBC at some point.”
Oh yes, this time of year, biennially, I have to search for them.