Harris Removes $2 Million Worth of Ads From North Carolina
Harris and Trump will spend the day in North Carolina tomorrow.
AdImpact, which tracks political ads, announced that VP Kamala Harris’s campaign pulled $2 million worth of ads from North Carolina.
North Carolina is a swing state.
The campaign moved a day before she and VP candidate Gov. Tim Walz will spend the day in North Carolina.
#Election2024: Yesterday, the Kamala Harris campaign placed new #NCPol ad reservations totaling $2.7m for the final week of the election. This morning, the campaign is cutting from those NC reservations. So far today, we've seen over $2m removed from NC markets.
— AdImpact Politics (@AdImpact_Pol) October 29, 2024
@KamalaHarris giving up on North Carolina..pulling money out. Maybe to drop in Virginia to try and stop the slide ? pic.twitter.com/oTcCAuTJYx
— Chris LaCivita (@LaCivitaC) October 29, 2024
From The Carolina Journal:
This comes a day before Harris is scheduled to campaign in the capital city of Raleigh, the only North Carolina media market where she is leading the Republican presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump.
In the latest Carolina Journal statewide poll, Harris and Trump are tied at 47%. However, Trump leads Harris from Charlotte to western North Carolina by 12 points, and leads Harris by 9 points in North Carolina’s coastal area. They are tied in central North Carolina at 45%. Harris is ahead in the Triangle area of Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill, leading 55% to Trump’s 40%.
Trump is also going to be in North Carolina on Wednesday, with a rally scheduled in Rocky Mount.
North Carolina has been early voting for two weeks.
More Republicans have early voted by 9,000 than in previous elections. The number of Democrats has dropped by 340,000 voters.
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Comments
“@KamalaHarris giving up on North Carolina..pulling money out. Maybe to drop in Virginia to try and stop the slide ?”
This is as useless as trying to interpret polls.
Maybe she feels NC is in the bag, and the money is more useful elsewhere.
FWIW, they have absolutely flooded Portland with the “el-cheapo” version of the Harris/Walz yard signs. My guess is that they dumped truckloads and got people to walk down the streets and offer one to every house. For them to spend money like that in Portland tells me that oregon will likely go red. It was more than likely shenanigans that kept us from having Republican Governor in 2022, and I suspect that tricks used to shift that election will come to light if tried in a presidential race where feds can investigate things that the state will not. Lots of people in Portland do not like how the city was destroyed by the left over the last 8 years.
It could be or that the state is lost so go after swing states like Michigan which has turned into a dumpster fire. Not sure which way it is. I’m in the state and the early voting is heavily Trump from the few polls I saw. Don’t know what her internal polling is seeing.
Very interesting – Normally that indicates they have given up on the State.
At the same time, Harris ads were very prominent in the dallas Fort worth metro plex even though Texas is near solid republican.
Still very heavy advertising by Colin Allred against Ted Cruz
As I said – very interesting?
If she was pulling out she wouldn’t be going there in person. No, my guess is she is putting the money elsewhere. TX is a longshot for Harris, but it is a hard abortion ban state, and she is far more likely to mobilize women in TX to overperform than in most other places. And TX is worth 40 EV. If Harris is going to do a Hail Mary to mobilize female turnout, TX is the place to do it.
doesnt mean she is giving u on the state
the fix could be in so she doesnt need to spend there could also be she needs to pocket some of that
Concur – it could be either she is confident of winning NC or confident she has lost NC.
Several polls show a tie, though trafalgar shows trump up 3+
She might be counting on PAC’s to pick up the slack. I’ll be listening to the radio out of Raleigh and see if her ads start to decrease. Still, a week out of election day this is usually a sign that a campaign has thrown in the towel.
I always thought that NC was a longshot for the Ds. Also it does not make sense that they are tied in NC and Harris is also pulling out.
Turnout was an eye-watering 77% in 2020 and Biden only lost a just over 1-point. With Trump only up +.3 in the RCP average, the race on the day before Election Day was essentially tied. Biden easily could have won with just a bit higher turnout. Today, in the same RCP average, Trump is only up +.7. Whatever Harris’ internal polling says about NC, it must be absolutely dreadful for her to pull chocks now.
The pollsters have to adjust the weighting in their polls. they have historically adjusted the weighting to over weight democrat support. This years poll is either A) better trump support, or B) over correction of the weighting process.
Public polls have to adjust weighting. Private, campaign sponsored polls are generally considered to be more accurate (I’d love to see someone dig into that and explain why, and how). I don’t know how much weighting they do. But the real point here is, both campaigns have very good polling operations. If Ms. Harris is pulling her ads a week before Election Day, she is a) convinced the state is lost or b) convinced that she’s won it and needs the resources elsewhere or c) doesn’t yet know, but figures money and time spent to get her into Raleigh is more useful than money spent on ads.
About a week and we’ll see.
Yes, I think this is correct. Diving deep into polling the last couple cycles, I’ve come to the conclusion – which I think is irrefutable, at this point – polling is FAR more art than it is science. Making sweeping presumptions based on nothing other than a pollster’s instinct, and then doing a post hoc statistical analysis of the data after it’s been massaged by the pollster’s intuition is far from ‘scientific.’ In fact, it’s no more based in statistical analysis than numerology is based on math.
They’re guessing…again.
I think that anyone who mindlessly believes all polling at this point has a screw loose. I look at polls not for the specific numbers but for the trends. All trends show Harris losing in swing states and nationally. Her numbers especially the “likeable” number has been on a downward trajectory slowly but surely. Trump is picking up .1pt here, .2pts there steadily. Still too close to call but it is all going Trumps way.
Maybe she is pulling all resources she can to do a big Hail Mary in Texas. Texas is a hard abortion ban state, and worth 40 Electoral Votes. If she can mobilize female turnout in Texas, she probably wins.
Texas isn’t in play. NYT’s latest poll is Trump +10.
I doubt Texas is in play.
That being said, Collin allred fighting to take Cruz senate seat is spending tons of money for campaign ads.
Lots of ads regarding Texas abortion restrictions – as if a Senator in the US congress has anything to do with state laws
Lots of ads stating that He (a democrat ) is in favor of border control and Cruz , a republican is opposed to border control.
A senator is relevant to abortion laws because (1) he can vote on federal legislation, either (if he is D) protecting abortion nationwide or (if he is R) banning it nationwide. (2) he can vote on SCOTUS nominees; Ds hope one day to reverse Dobbs and reinstate Roe / Casey.
god I hope you are correct
your msm down there is pushing anyone against cruz
and by any means necessary they will cheat to win
No. The federal government at large has no relevance on abortion because as the SCOTIS made clear in Dobbs regulation of abortion is a 10th amendment power of the states. The federal government can no .more restrict states ability to regulate abortion than it can ban abortion. The federal government has no authority over abortion or state abortion regulations.
More like the dumpster fires the swing states especially Michigan with the Muslim fiasco. She might not even win PA. If she was going to alienate Muslim voters she might as well as picked Shapiro and have PA in the bag. Just another boneheaded move by the most inept campaign in history.
After the cluster**** response by FEMA to the devastating flooding, I don’t think NC is even in play.
In fact, I think that under Trump, FEMA goes away, replaced by state run efforts.
The only question is how much of a Charlie Fox situation western NC is going to be with early voting and on Election Day. Haven’t heard much about the area in the news lately; I’m praying that the clean-up is going well and life is returning to ‘normal’.
It’s getting much better. The State authorized additional early voting sites for people in disaster counties to make it easier to vote. 2 counties out west refused to do anything and the state had to step in and force them but I feel pretty confident that whoever want’s to vote out there will be able to.
Republican voting in disaster counties is on par with 2020. Democrat voting is down double digits. The entire early vote shortfall in disaster counties is democrat vote share.
People in NC sometimes register as Democrat so they can vote in local primaries where there are no real Republican alternative. Because of this, voter turnout models undercount Republican support more than in other states. If NC is around +1 Trump, it is most likely +4 Trump if not more. Internal polls would show this.
I vote in the democrat primary since all the local races are democrat dominated and voting for the least bad judge.
I think most of the 7 typical swing states are mostly baked in at this point. Harris may be looking at doing a Hail Mary in a place that isn’t thought to be overly competitive – Texas. If she can mobilize female voters who are angry – it is a hard abortion ban state after all – she can win the election. If this play works, TX might still be grey on the maps in the morning of Nov 6. Trump going to VA for a rally is similar – VA is a permissive abortion state where only Federal races are on the ballot at all. Young voters seem to have largely stayed home in VA so far. He could win VA and lose TX.
I think it’s more likely that Harris watched her campaign throw out a Muslim from a rally in Michigan and then watch a few other of their leaders in Dearborn endorse Trump and is an outright panic.
An emergency came up and they had to spend the two million elsewhere.
Jenna Wang said the pictures of her secret fling with Tim Walz are worth at least 2 million.
I’ve been in the state for 15 years. The last couple have seen an acceleration of people moving here especially from New England. It’s difficult to tell what this means. RDU is booming so maybe her polling is telling her that the lead in that area is enough to carry the state no matter what the rest of it is doing. NC is becoming just like a number of other states, run by one or two cities but the overwhelming number of counties still red.