Unemotional Analysis: The sky is not falling for Trump, but Republicans need to get their act together
Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group and Matt Towery of Insider Advantage.
I don’t usually listen to podcasts, other than the Legal Insurrection Podcast.
But I saw linked on X (Twitter) today a podcast with Robert Cahahly of Trafalgar Group together with Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage. I always listen carefully to what Cahahly says not because he is clairvoyant, but because he doesn’t spin things and his polling of the presidential elections in 2016 and 2020 was excellent (the 2022 midterms, not so much). I’m less familiar with Towery and InsiderAdvantage, but if this podcast is any indication, he’s also a straight shooter.
Trafalger/Insider Advantage just released their most recent Battleground Polls, All surveys were conducted August 6-8.
InsiderAdvantage: Surveys of 800 likely voters (details will appear on InsiderAdvantage.com to come).
Michigan
Harris: 49%
Trump: 47%
Other: 2%
No opinion/undecided: 2%Wisconsin
Trump: 49%
Harris: 48%
Other: 2%
No opinion/undecided: 1%Trafalgar Group: Surveys of 1000 likely voters (details to come on Trafalgar X Page @Trafalgar_group
Pennsylvania
Trump: 46%
Harris: 44%
Other: 5%
No opinion/Undecided: 5%Arizona
Trump:48%
Harris: 47%
Other: 4%
No opinion/undecided: 1%Nevada
Trump: 48%
Harris: 45%
Other: 5%
No opinion/undecided: 2%North Carolina
Trump: 49%
Harris: 45%
Other: 4%
No opinion/Undecided: 2%
I’m posting their podcast as a follow up to my popular Quick Hit Podcast segment, Don’t Fall For ‘Operation Demoralize’:
The ending of my blog post about Operation Demoralize was not that just because the Democrats and media are trying to demoralize Republicans doesn’t mean that Republicans don’t have problems, it means they have to unemotionally analyze what they are doing right and what they are doing wrong:
What is the antidote for Operation Demoralize?
It’s working harder, unemotionally analyzing what you are doing right and what you are doing wrong, correcting course where needed, but not throwing up your hands and commencing a circular firing squad.
And such unemotional analysis is what Cahaly and Towery do. Their podcast was recorded before Tim Walz was named, but I’m not sure that changes their analysis of the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of the campaigns (though Walz is flaming out).
If I had to summarize and paraphrase their points, it’s that the sky is not falling for Donald Trump, but Trump and Republicans are falling behind in the way they are conducting the campaign, creating opportunities for Kamala. They even suggest that because of Republican complacency and lack of action, together with ballot initiatives important to Democrats (abortion and pot), Florida could be closer than people expect.
They mentioned one thing I’ve heard anecdotally from others. That Kamala and Democrat SuperPACS are running ads nonstop in places like Georgia while there is silence from Trump and Republican SuperPACS. They particularly blame the Republican SuperPACS who are leaving everything to the Trump campaign, and also operating under an out-of-date belief that you don’t really focus on ads until the last 8 weeks of the campaign. With early voting, that’s too late.
But the sky is not falling for Trump either. The doom and gloom that fills the media, Operation Demoralize, is overstating things. Their polling indicates a close race. IMO considering the non-stop gushing media coverage since Kamala replaced Joey, this is her honeymoon period. She should be doing much better in the polling, and is running far behind where Hillary and Joey were at the same time in 2016 and 2020.
So the moral of their story is not to be demoralized, but for Republicans to get their act together.
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Comments
Counterpoint.
‘Republicans’ don’t WANT to get their act together.
There are a lot of ‘principled’ Republicans in high places like McConnell and Romney that simply do not WANT to win, if it means Trump wins.
Give it a rest or please provide evidence that Mitch McConnell runs the Trump campaign.
He never claimed that McConnell runs the Trump campaign. He claimed that, based on their actions, McConnell and other high-ranking Republicans would rather let the Democrats win up and down the whole ticket than see Trump in the Oval Office again.
And based on their actions, he’s not wrong. As bad as Harris is, and as much a disaster as her administration would be, top Republicans are doing surprisingly little to help her opponent.
The article is about mistakes being made in the Trump campaign and he suggested the reason is because Mitch McConnell wants to lose.
Asking for something to back that up isn’t unreasonable.
Exactly. Since McConnell plays no part in the Trump campaign, his alleged desire for Harris to win is irrelevant. Even if he did have such a desire, it could not explain Trump’s disappointing performance in the most recent polls. Whatever is causing that, it’s not McConnell.
This is entirely relevant. If ‘cConnell and other principled small c Conservatives just sit back and do nothing to support Trump that is a huge problem. Their lethargy will sink any Republican nominee faster than a black female going down on her knees to get in to politics.
The timeline is very compressed. Harris is gonna continue to hide from press Q&A through the d/prog convention ending 22 Aug. She agreed to the single debate (the prior Biden ABC agreement) on 10 Sept. Early voting begins in more than few States soon after. IMO the Harris/Walz strategy is to run out the clock and avoid as much Q&A as possible and the lapdog legacy media will assist. They gonna spend the boatload of campaign cash they have and ficus on swing State turnout. The d/prog have shifted away from a Candidate focus to a team/tribal oriented Red v Blue contest first with Biden in ’20 and now Harris. Not sure it can work for them this go round given the radical history of both Harris and Walz as well as the d/prog policies. One thing is for sure, don’t be complacent just b/c we can’t comprehend how anyone could vote for a Harris/Walz ticket…roughly half the voters gonna do so. Check your registration, go vote and bring folks with you to the polls.
The lapdog media makes Pravda look like a reliable unbiased source.
All well within the margin of cheating. Then we are finished.
My concern is GA and PA. If you play around with the electoral map, from a pro-Trump-Vance ticket perspective, being conservative by giving AZ, NM, NV, CO, VA to Harris-Walz, with all the traditionally “blue” and “red” states predictably staying in their ideological lanes, the race comes down to GA and PA. Trump-Vance need to win both of them, to win the race with exactly 270 electoral votes.
All GOP resources should be poured into winning GA and PA.
I had meant to leave out NM from the above statement, as it’s obviously reliably “blue.”
Correct. The good news is that Romney’s niece and the GOPe are no longer in charge of the party money, advertising and ground game. Trump has raised more than enough money to advertise heavily in the battleground states and his campaign can control when are where they use it. Because there is now a truce between the America First and Establishment wing of the party far fewer GOP voters will sit this one out. McCormick is a Bush loyalist and as establishment as you can get but he and Trump are aggressively campaigning together in PA. In GA Kemp came out a couple of days ago and said his machine and ground game are all in for Trump in GA. He may be a weathervane politician, but he at least knows which way the wind is blowing in GA and what is good for his machine.
Trump-Vance, surrogates and allies should be doing nothing between now and Election Day but shuttling between GA and PA for rallies, town halls, etc., with maybe some diversionary stops in AZ, NV or NH, if there is a realistic possibility of winning one or more of them.
Victor David Hanson had an interview posted today that pointed out that Reagan trailed Carter at this time in that election and defined Jimmy as terrible for the economy and national security and beat him. Bush the elder was badly trailing Dukakis. He brought in Attwater, and they pounded Dukakis with the Horton ads on crime, showed Massachusetts economy lagged under his leadership, and ridiculed his stupid tough guy tank photo op.
The GOP just needs to stay focused and concentrate on middle class/working class voters in the swing states.
That is exactly the tack Republicans need to take. Negative campaigning works and even more so in this election. By this time with Trump a huge figure in the news for nearly a decade most Americans know where they stand on Trump. Many of those already know they are voting either for or against him and will not be moved by any campaign pitch. The GOP needs to dissuade the rest from voting Harris/Walz and boy is there plenty of ammunition against them.
Inflation and immigration. Relentlessly.
In 2016, Trump only trailed Clinton in GA for the week immediately after their convention. It was an incredibly small and very short-lived lead for Clinton as Trump regained it the next week and maintained a very comfortable lead in the polling averages through Election Day. Keeping in mind that Kemp beat Stacy Harris by 10-points, if victory in GA isn’t a forgone conclusion by September, then it’s going to be a long, long election night in November. GA shouldn’t be REMOTELY competitive.
If the Republicans head into October uncertain if they’re going to carry Georgia, they don’t have much chance of carrying AZ, MI or PA. This is simply the reality.
Current polls have GA tied within MOE.
GA results doesn’t necessarily translate into results in other states. GA has one of the highest black populations in the country, and mobilization/ turnout is absolutely key there. Trump could win PA and lose GA. And Democrats have a pretty solid record of winning Federal races in GA, as opposed to state contests.
Knowing this, what did Trump do? He went to GA and insulted its governor and his wife! I’ll say it again, this election is going to be lost because of Trump’s mouth. Harris is such a bad candidate that all he needs to do is focus on her record and stop going after her personally. His constant exaggerations aren’t helping either. Is there no one who can help him?
There is also a worrisome possibility in GA that if the election is closer than 2016 and 2020 (which is very likely), it might remain undecided all the way to Jan 6. If there are less than 1000 votes between Trump and Harris, does anyone think Fulton County will be able to produce a consistent recount? Georgia may have no electoral votes at all if the count it tied up in lawsuits and injunctions, and as I understand things, recounts in GA are done by the County, not the State. That means nobody might have 270 and Congress elects the President. Even if Trump wins VA (which has much more solid recount procedures), and PA, it is still hard to get to 270 without GA unless Trump gets AZ or NV
The Democrats are making a yuuge investment in the Alaska House race for a reason. Mary Peltola is a House Delegation, and you need 26 of those to elect a President.
Keeping their powder dry. Things move so fast these days. Democrats will have their fake convention. Another example of inauthenticity. JOY at the sorry state of the country. How fake! More and more coming out to show the hypocrisy. And then Trump will dump on them.
Again, if voters are good with being duped, they will be duped. The Democrats make it easy to see through, but your eyes must be open to reality.
Hopefully, moves to protect the vote, and better efforts to offset the Democratic cheating, will prove effective. But perhaps it’s best to let Harris and Walz shoot their wad until people pay actual attention after Labor Day.
Hopefully the action outside of the Democrat convention will be a repeat of the ’68 debacle and give the GOP an enormous boost.
A nothing-burger convention that decides nothing will be a non-event. Don’t count on any riots or disruptions.
Except, as Prof J pointed out, that’s no longer true. With early voting, if you leave it till after Labor Day it’s too late. Early voters will have already made up what passes for their minds.
Agreed the media is in the tank for this imbecile woman. They are a complete embarrassment. The polls are amusing. If after four years of Biden’s insanity, Trump is ahead in these states by a mere 2 – 4 points, the problem isn’t Trump’s. It’s America’s. If that many people actually plan on voting for that stupid woman, America is completely lost.
Indeed, this is the crux of the matter.
Give every adult the vote, and this is what you get. People who are completely disinterested and pay no attention making decisions for everyone. Absurd.
You are right and it may be time for a North and South, North America. I cannot imagine living under four years of the two most liberal politicians since Bernie.
1/ Trump already won in some sense. Harris is moving away from Biden and branding herself as tough on immigration. She hired a lot of Obama people and is moving to the center.
Trump lost the opportunity to define her. They will roll out a moderate sounding platform at the DNC.
2/People misunderstand the Walz pick. It was to give her progressive cover so she could move to the center. Every time the GOP attacks Walz as progressive… it helps her because she can walk it back and it makes her look moderate.
3/well see if she absorbs the lesson of the demise of two anti-israel democrats (Jamaal and Bush). Iran attack coming soon.
4/The chief problem with the Republican campaign is Trump himself, who has never been disciplined. He cant stay on message, he rambles and airs old grievances like attacking Kemps wife. He underperforms other GOP candidates.
5/Senate GOP candidates in tough races will start to emphasize the value of ticket splitting as a check on Harris.
Also I dont have a high opinion for people who blame the media. We have free speech, because we expect that people can find stuff and adult their way through misleading NYT headlines. Ive seen his speeches. He rambles and airs grievances. Harris can’t put three sentences together without a teleprompter either. But her campaign is a thousand percent more disciplined.
No. We have free speech because it’s an inalienable right with which the Creator has endowed all human beings (not just Americans). We hope that enough people can find stuff and adult their way through misleading headlines, but we know that too many can’t.
Even if nobody could do that, we would still have to respect the freedom of speech, while knowing that it was not long for this earth because the morons would soon elect a government that would take it away from them, along with all their freedoms. And that would be very sad. But preemptively taking it away ourselves would just turn us into the enemy, and defeat the entire purpose of fighting.
you’ve never met my SIL
the NYT is her bible and CNN her preacher
It is almost humorous that the two candidates themselves have no freedom of speech since both are severely inarticulate.
There is a reason why totalitarian regimes use propaganda. That reason is because it works. If the only or main source of news distorts reality, then a large percentage of people will believe the distortion. Virtually all of the network channels, major newspapers and news services like the AP and Reuters parrot the regime line so that is what most Americans are constantly exposed to.
Check with your liberal friends on source of news. I bet that most not only get all their news from the NYT and NSNBC etc. but would be appalled at the very thought of listening to even FOX let alone reading a blog like Legal Insurrection. The independent voters are more likely to at least view various news sites and listen to their conservative friends and acquaintances.
“Independents” are busy suburbanites who have a TV on while they are doing household chores. They don’t really watch, but they do absorb the narratives and “vibes”.
1) Trump didn’t need to define Harris. The media already did that and it worked. Most people seem to think this woman is independent of the Biden Administration.
2) The Walz pick doesn’t make her look moderate. It makes her look weak, and that is the message that our enemies and the antisemites of the party pick up.
3) She won’t as indicated by her push to appease the antisemites in Glendale, AZ.
4) Trump has been remarkably disciplined during this campaign. Name one time where he was not.
5) Cowardice is the trademark of the GOP, all the way down to lay voters like yourself.
If Harris becomes president and things go from bad to worse, don’t blame Trump. Blame yourselves.
Four reasons I think Trump is the underdog.
– This should have been an election for the next generation, not whether you are black or female. People are sick of the Cliinton, Biden, Pelosi, Trump era. The Democrats delivered someone younger.
– Polls do not include the ballot harvesting margin. which means Trump is really even or behind in almost all the swing states.
– Trump is still too undisciplined and unfocused, and still name-calling. The independent people he needs to vote for him hate that. Harris was the tie-breaking vote on the two giant spending bills, that led to the inflation, so 100% her policy, arguably more so than even Biden. Inflation should be hung around her neck night and day.
– IMO Vance was a choice for an election that Trump was sure to win, not to gain votes. If you don’t win, policy agreement is irrelevant.
The only thing that would change my perception that this is Kamala’s and her free billion dollar MSM “Cinderella” campaign to lose is if the Dem’s convention is like 1968 with Hamas rioters, continuing onto campuses in the Fall.
To all those down-voters, go read the front page story in the NY Times today. “Trump’s Circle Sees Him Lose Grip of His Bid”, sourced from people close to Trump. Even taking away the spin, THAT. GUY. CAN’T. WIN.
Oh well, if the NYT says so…
When you take away the spin, all that’s left is whitespace.
I think Trump is wise right now not being on the road every day campaigning for multiple reasons. He has either been campaigning or governing for nine years straight. Eventually that has to take a toll on the body and mind.
He is up against his third different candidate in that period. Pence was no no help, at least he now has Vance onboard who seems to be more aligned with Trump and has the youth and energy injection the campaign needs.
Going through all these court cases also has to be quite stressful, while he isn’t the one drafting briefs the constant lawfare has to take its toll. I know that wouldn’t exactly trust the Secret Service at this time either, more events mean more opportunity of security failure. The response by Rowe has not exactly earned my trust at the moment.
They also have new leadership running the RNC that has brought some new people and tactics into the fold. He needs to broaden the people un the spotlight, it can’t all be about him, he is focused on flipping the senate but he needs to have people like Vivek and DeSantis more involved. They will never have as much money to spend as the dems, they need to mange thus funds wisely.
The media has found their new darling and they will not let Kamala implode no matter have bad she stumbles, keeping Trump out of the White House and having a female running the show is the main focus. They won’t shine light on her record, how she intends to govern, that won’t matter as long as it is a female. Look no further that Jesse Ventura’s endorsement if you need proof.
Under constant pressure from the forces that have been bemoaned for years on this site, society has reached a tipping point. Normality’s last gasp was Trump’s quixotic 2016 campaign. Unfortunately he is an injured, vilified and undisciplined candidate. The election will be won by the forces that controlled a senile old man and that will direct a cackling, imbecilic whore.
He needs to get his act together here in Georgia.
Gov. Kemp is very popular because he has been very good for small business. They need a big, public kiss and make-up session; otherwise there is going to be a lot of newly-mined, black Republicans in Atlanta voting for Harris.
There is not a gubernatorial election this year.
How does his state lose both senate seats during his tenure. None of the candidates the repub have run were exactly strong, the dems ran Warnock who beat out a sports legend in the state who in reality had no business running in the first place. While not a fan of Ossoff he at least has some appeal to many.
The election process in his state was clearly broken and gets exposed as more corrupt by the day.
Trump did that. He told people not to vote. Enough people listened to him that the seats were lost
Kemp only beat Abrams by 50 thousand votes out of 4 million cast in 2018. Georgia is more purple than red because the Atlanta area is so transient.
Kemp came out a couple of days ago and said his machine/ground game are now all in for Trump. Hopefully he meant what he said.
Our problem is the Stacey Abrams machine in Fulton County is really good. Kemp needs to deploy his machine to avoid losses in Congressional and Legislative contests, but the whole Fulton County area is Democratic, and they will deliver for Harris.
The biggest controllable problem for Trump is his campaign seems to be very flat-footed. The ad-buys announced last week for the respective campaigns go a LONG way towards underscoring what I’m talking about. Harris spent $14M in Olympic advertising. Trump spent….Zero. Not one penny. She’s spent $43M on Meta & Google (including YouTube) while Trump has only spent $5.3M.
Not only is the ad-buy insuffecient for right now, but the lack of the pre-purchase of ad time that will air later in the campaign mean that when they finally spend that money, they’ll get LESS air-time as it will be appreciably more expensive to buy the same 15-second spot in October than it would have been to purchase that October spot in July or August. That’s just how advertising works.
https://x.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1821895693700571246
A campaign with limitless funds can advertise during the olympics.
Amazing amounts of fear, uncertainty, and doubt on this thread.
It looks as though Operation Demoralize is working, well enough if not to perfection.
It would be suicidal for the Trump campaign to put all of its marbles on GA and PA. Especially if Kemp’s help is truly needed in GA. Kemp has at least one legitimate grievance against Trump, and it would be nice to get some resolution on that. But at root Kemp has been and will remain a weasel. The damage he has done to Republican candidates other than himself is incalculable.
Understand that unless we’re working for a campaign, we have zero access to the real polls. All we can see is the polls a biased media wants us to see.
And what the candidates are doing.
So what are they doing?
Harris appears to be trying to shore up support in supposedly ‘safe’ states
Trump is out campaigning for Senate and House seats
What does that suggest the internal polls look like?
It suggests to me that it will be a very close contest that could be 269-269 or with 1-3 states that remain undecided until Jan 6, with inconsistent recounts and injunctions blocking electoral vote certification, and Congress will elect the next President.
The DNC is putting a huge effort into Alaska’s House seat for a reason, and it isn’t just keeping a House seat. Mary Peltola is a state delegation.