There are two candidates still waiting, either of whom could shake up the Republican primaries big time.
It’s impossible to read the tea leaves on whether Sarah Palin is running, but it seems increasingly likely that Rick Perry is running.
How much longer can they wait?
Bonus question: If Palin is not running, what’s the likelihood she gets behind a Perry candidacy at the time or soon after he announces?
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I’d bet on a Palin endorsement of Bachmann before a Perry one … and I’d bet on a Christie endorsement from Palin over both of them …
If Palin is going to run (and my gut instinct says she is), then she has already planned her announce date/time/location. Personally, I believe it will be Reaganesque. Huntsman used the Statue of Liberty, like Reagan, when he announced in 1980. On Labor Day weekend, 1979.
My belief is that she will do the announce either then, or in alignment with an anniversary which she has special attachment to (her resignation from governor of AK was in August; the optics of that might not be good, but she can use that as fuel for more publicity).
My “non-predictions” – Labor Day, 2011 at the Reagan Ranch. She visited there and apparently has a good rapport with the folks there. Or, Labor Day at Boston Harbor. View of Bunker Hill, the Old North Church…..and where the FIRST Tea Party was.
I expect it to make LOTS of heads explode, because it will be perfectly thought out, but the MSM will not know about it until it happens.
Perry will run, and announce in July, is my gut on him. Personally, there is a lot of hype about him, and a LOT of Texas Conservatives who are not to keen on him. Also, too soon after the Bush family held the seat, IMHO. I think he should try, get in and fight! It might just be a Palin/Perry team on the 2012 ticket.
Not as good as Palin/West, but not bad. Not bad at all.
I think the time is now. August is a slow news month, so it’s a gamble to announce then. Will the news be a bigger event or lost in the rest of the nothingness? The longer they wait, the more the economy will begin to dominate the headlines. At that point, any Republican who can count will be viewed as more qualified than Obama and his team, plus voters will begin to form stronger allegiances to the current field that may prove difficult to change.
Just saw the first politcal sign stuck in the ground by the roadside this morning. It was for the House, but I didn’t read it fast enough to see whether that was state or fed. It’s past time, in my opinion.
Perry and Palin…so, absolutely not on Christie? I don’t think Palin is going to jump in. Like her policies and executive skills or not, she has a huge PR nightmare in overcoming her reputation as a quitter: as Governor and now with her bus tour. I wonder what trade-offs/leverage she has in her pocket to offer her support for any other candidate? Hillary’s job? Geithner’s?
But, hey, it’s anybody’s guess, right?
I think she waits until November 6 – exactly one year before the election. She has plenty of name recognition and can draw the money in a heartbeat. Unlike all the others, she a totally known commodity, so she doesn’t need to “introduce” herself to the voters. She can afford to wait until all the other “flavors of the month” have had their turn in the spotlight.
Palin has plenty of time, because she’s constantly in the news anyway, and then with the movie coming out she’s going to be in the public eye without having to announce. So why not wait? The longer she plays “will she or won’t she”, the more publicity she gets, and it’s all practically free. Also the longer she waits the more time she has to finally make up her mind; if she decides at the last minute not to run, it won’t be embarrassing, because she can truthfully say that she never entered the race in the first place.
perry or christie would be perfect, althought i bet palin would be leaning toward christie.
how about a perry/christie ticket
/swoons
/passes out
Palin endorses Perry.
I think she’s running and this is a prelude:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHY5sZ7mqzw
I think Palin is waiting to see if her polling numbers improve after the movie has been out for a while. If her numbers turn around in a meaningful way, then I think she runs. If they don’t, she won’t.
I agree that if Palin decides not to run, she will probably endorse Perry over Bachmann. Perry has over two terms governing the second largest state, so at least on paper he is the stronger candidate between he and Bachmann.
Palin’s been running for 2 years now… the only question is when she formally announces.
I would love to see Perry/Palin only because Christie is adamant that he won’t run in 2012 … But watch out 2016 !
Palin is running, I would bet on it. Announcement date possibly 9/11, which is also Patriot Day, or 9/17 Constitution Day.
She has the best ground game in Iowa already. Palin volunteers are also at work in other states. She also has a huge highly organized web presence. This example is still under construction. But what does it look like to you?
Organize4Palin
Although the state Organize4Palin sites are not yet linked to the national website here is the Iowa website for example:
Iowans4palin
She gains nothing by announcing earlier. She might announce even later than September with November being the outside limit.
There are hundreds of Palin websites. Does she look like someone who is not running to you?
I am hoping that she is waiting to see exactly how and when the GOP commits suicide and then declares that she is running and like Trump, if she doesn’t win the nomination will run independent.
I am expecting that Boehner/Cantor will provide the “how and when” this Sunday when they cave on the debt ceiling. After the way after they caved on the lame duck budget, this will be the last straw for us Tea Party conservatives. We part ways on Sunday.
Perry was Al Gore’s Texas campaign manager in 1988 and was persuaded by Karl Rove to switch parties and became his protegee under GW Bush. Does that change things for anybody? It does for me.
There are some really tough questions he needs to answer. Is his sudden rift with GW Bush over his big government policies for real or just political theater? And why he would stab his mentor and future source of funding Karl Rove?
Kabuki theater if you ask me. In politics, candidates who are desperate for money like Perry don’t burn their bridges.
My thoughts exactly Pasadena Phil, to both comments.
Tell me, Phil, when you were growing up, did you decide then that you would prove to the world how little you know?
Rick Perry and Karl Rove have been adversaries from the git-go. Two different men with two different styles. Rove is an establishment Republican, Perry a Republican with a very independent streak. And the rift between Perry and G.W. is not the sudden event you would care to portray it.
Remember this, when Perry was Gore’s Texas campaign manager, 75% of Texas was Democrat, and Gore was the pro-life Democrat, as well. But Rick Perry saw the turn the Democrats were taking, and as a conservative Democrat (now called Blue-Dogs) he left the party or shall I say, the party left him.
And you say candidates like Perry, who are desperate for money? Really? Are you aware that Perry has raised $12 million in the last quarter for the Republican Governor’s Association? Perry will not want for money, that you can take to the bank.
Now, if you really want to know who the left is shaking in their boots, just read the articles written by the hacks of the left and see who comes out to support them. The left is scared to death that Perry is going to get in. And of course the hacks are saying that Perry is not popular in his own state, which is so much bull. Perry’s popularity rating in Texas is 7 points higher than Obama’s is nationwide according to the one poll that is Texas exclusive, Texas Lyceum.
My problem with Perry? Supporting Al Gore. That’s a show stopper. Hoping to choose the winner and wind up with a job in his administration? That’s just a pol trying to avoid finding honest work, even worse. Romney’s health care program in Massachusetts? Another show stopper. For the first time in decades it may be possible to field a candidate who has a long, unbroken record of acting on genuine principles, understands America, and will campaign and attack ferociously on that basis. There are simply too many good, new candidates available and an ample supply of able, accomplished young people available to populate an administration; we don’t need an old timer who has suddenly seen the light. With apologies to John McCain, one of the most honorable people alive today, we must have someone who will not pull punches. We must. It will be good to learn more about some of the declared candidates, but we must field someone who will fight, hard, without worrying about feelings, someone who will unashamedly take this current crowd to task for its years of deplorable, corrupt, dishonest, condescending, dorm room actions. If it can’t be done now we’re all in trouble.
Owego, what you don’t understand is that in 1988, almost all of Texas was Democrat, at least from a voter standpoint. And another thing you don’t understand is that most Democrat voters in Texas were, and are, more conservative than East/West Coast Republicans. If you were to look at Al Gore’s political stance in 1988, you would have thought that he was a Republican, not a Democrat of today’s standards (far left).
So Perry may be a non-starter for you, but considering that it was announced today that Obama is going to try to do an end run around Congress for more severe gun laws (that really affect law abiding citizens and not criminals), Perry is a STRONG 2nd Amendment guy. He is also strong on the 10th Amendment and doesn’t mind getting in Obama’s face.
A Perry/Obama cage match would be exciting to say the least.
I tend to believe retire05 that Perry has always been conservative. But even if he had not been, I’d be careful about automatically excluding someone based on their prior beliefs/affiliations. I’ve noticed that many of the people who have had an ideological conversion often become the loudest advocates for the newly adopted ideology because they see how wrong their prior beliefs really were:
Ronald Reagan claimed he voted for FDR 4 times for president.
Milton Friedman worked in the FDR administration.
When Thomas Sowell had a skull full of mush as a very young adult, he was a committed communist.
Not running?
Here All Along
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Mama Grizzlies
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X67qgNtZPdQ"Tea Party
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A Sarah Palin Tribute
Governor Sarah Palin and Trig
Rick Perry has made plans to be in South Carolina mid-August. From the article:
Governor Perry has scheduled a visit to Charleston, S.C., in mid-August to appear at an event hosted by RedState blog. It will be his first trip to an early primary state.
http://www.christianpost.com/news/rick-perry-heading-to-sc-conservatives-anticipate-presidential-bid-51434/
Perry will win the nomination based on his 10+ years performance of Texas governor.
Once Perry is in race, Christie won’t change his mind.
Palin?? I guess she doesn’t run, but wouldn’t it be funny if she was chose as VP mate?? Look at the schlub Biden, he has trouble counting passed 21.
Biden has trouble counting past 21? No, past 20. By then he has run out of fingers and toes. On, no, you are correct. He will be looking at his nose. But he will see 2 noses and can now count to 22. Of course if he is drunk, he might see 40 or 50 fingers, toes and noses. His momma must be so proud.
No, the outer circle of his math skills range comes to a screeching halt at three.
He said J-O-B-S was a three letter word, and that was back in ’08. Joe certainly hasn’t gotten any smarter since then, folks!
And, by the way, notice that he specifically attributed that factoid — that J-O-B-S is a a 3-letter word — to none other than Barack Obama! (ht, Ed Morrissey at HotAir.)
Agree with the comment that Palin can wait forever. She is a media and money machine and might benefit from laying in the weeds while others take the heat. Anyone with qualms about Perry having been a democrat, this state has always been conservative, even when it was dominated by democrats. Perry grew up in deep rural west Texas, and made the switch along with the rest of the state. I believe he would be the most conservative candidate overall, maybe to a fault. He has a record; his former party affiliation is irrelevant to me.
IF Palin doesn’t run; I’ll give you 3-1 that she’s at the presser where Perry declares he’s going to be the 2012 President
She’s running. Perry’s likely making noise to pull votes away from the others in the pack. When Palin announces and Perry announces his support for her candidacy, her constituency will swamp the rest.
BTW, Palin will NEVER again consent to being second on any ticket. She got screwed royally the first time, and she’ll never back a party candidate who will damage her again like the McCain crowd did. She heads the ticket or she doesn’t run.
Palin will NEVER endorse Christie who has been very disdainful of her. He’s a classic RINO who has only one accomplishment to his name. He’s got lots of sound and fury via YouTube though.
Jack Kelly at the Pittsburgh Press-Gazette nailed the Palin strategy.
The conventional wisdom is more conventional than wise. Candidates start early to build name recognition and need a campaign organization to get supporters to the polls.
Sarah Palin has 3.2 million followers on Facebook — about 800,000 more than all the declared GOP candidates combined. Palinistas tend to be the sort who would crawl over ground glass to vote for her. She has less need of a get-out-the-vote operation than any political figure in modern times.
The Republican National Committee’s new rules favor late entrants. There will be more delegates in 2012 than ever before. A higher proportion will come from heavily Republican states. All but a handful will be selected after March 1. In the four February contests, 129 delegates are at stake — 23 fewer than in Texas alone.
Delegates in the early states must be selected by proportional representation, the RNC says. So whoever wins these contests probably will wind up with fewer than half. After March 1, delegates may be selected on a winner-take-all basis.
As for Palin favoring Rick Perry, I am not at all sure that that is true. She has attended Tea Party and fund-raiser events with Bachmann, was very friendly toward Herman Cain at CPAC and ate pizza with the Donald. So far Sarah has observed Reagan’s 11th Commandment.
This may have something to do with the timing if true.
Courtesy of C4P
SARAH PALIN IS RUNNING FOR THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, and has been doing so for, at least, the past 2 years.
This decision, by Mrs. Palin and her family, was made immediately before she resigned as Governor of Alaska. In fact, it was one of the principle reasons for her resignation. She knew, as anyone who analyzes that decision, that she could not run for the Presidency while fighting off the frivolous lawsuits of her enemies for 2 years.
She knew she needed to be free to travel the U.S. and connect with the American people. Which she has done exceptionally well.
That decision, was the start of her “campaign.”
One need only ask some basic questions to determine Mrs. Palin’s intentions.
1 – For what reason would Mrs. Palin insert herself into the 2010 election cycle? Why go out of her way to “endorse” local candidates all over the United States? And mostly TEA Party and grassroots conservative candidates?
2 – For what reason would Mrs. Palin take her entire family on a “bus tour” of historic sites around the United States? The key here is the BUS. If she wanted to tour these sites, she could easily do it in her family vehicle. Why stir up all the attendant media coverage?
3 – For what possible reason would Mrs. Palin need a movie about her political career? Remember, she had her staff approach Mr. Bannon about making some “short” segments. It was Mr. Bannon who made the decision to make a 2-hour movie, using his own money. Why didn’t she just say no?
4 – Why is she supporting this movie with appearances all over the United States? What is the point of traveling all over the U.S., generating press coverage everywhere, and shaking hands and speaking with people, voters, in every locale?
5 – Why are there O4P organizations in over 30 states, especially in all of the early primary states? Why didn’t Mrs. Palin just tell these people to stop? Is she that callous, that she would allow these people to waste their time and energy in this manner?
6 – Why does Mrs. Palin, a native and proud Alaskan, with a television series to prove it, need a home in Scottsdale, Arizona? Wouldn’t this be a complete jolt to her entire family? Where is Todd Palin going to find work on an oil rig, or pipeline, in Arizona?
Why don’t you all just accept that Mrs. Palin is running for the Republican nomination for President, and act accordingly?
This is not 2008. The political landscape has changed dramatically, and drastically. Mrs. Palin is an “unconventional” candidate. She is running against the “establishment” GOP, which is as opposed to her as the Democrats. Both wings of the Ministry of Propaganda are against her.
Luckily, elections are decided by the “people,” not the “ruling class” or the “elites.” And the Republican primaries, historically low-turnout, are decided by energized voters, and local GOTV initiatives. In the world of 2012, this means the conservative grassroots. Mrs. Palin is solidifying this group with every move she makes.
——————————————-
Closing thoughts:
If she’s NOT running …
Why would SarahPAC treasurer, Tim Crawford, tell supporters how critical it is for as many Americans as possible to see The Undefeated?
Why would Governor Palin hire Michael Glassner as her chief of staff? Glassner managed Bob Dole’s presidential campaign, and also managed her vice presidential run.
Why would Governor Palin hire Peter Schweizer, a fellow at the Hoover Institution, as her new foreign policy advisor? Schweizer is the author of many books on Reagan, Bush and penned a book on the financial crisis.
Why would Governor Palin launch her One Nation bus tour to highlight our nation’s history and to suggest that we must remember where we came from to get through the challenges ahead?
Finally, watch this video of her impromptu speech in Pella and try to explain why someone not running for president would attempt to link her record in Alaska to timeless American values. She is obviously running. She is obviously drawing a comparison between the good government principles she and her team pursued in Alaska and the kind of leadership we need in Washington D.C.
———————————————-
Why she hasn’t announced?
Two reasons, in my view:
1. She is supremely confident. Think Kobe Bryant/Dirk Nowitzky confident. She knows once she jumps in the race, the game is hers. She knows her ground game is being quietly assembled by people who are passionately committed to helping her win the presidency. She is likely doing things behind the scenes, as well. Remember how surprised everyone was about the bus tour, the movie, and the house in Arizona? What else will we be “shocked” to learn in coming weeks?
2. This is war. She is not going to give her opponents any advantage. She wants them to waste their efforts preparing for a no-Palin campaign and then have to suddenly adjust to her presence. In other words, she’s toying with them. Meanwhile, she can prepare under the radar, conserve resources, and scout her competitors.
It is most unfortunate that we can’t combine the presence of a Romney, the principles of a Bachmann, the fire of a Cain and Christie, the savvy of a Jacobson and the foreign policy of a Bolton.
Sorry but Bachmann doesn’t have any priciples. She sold out the Tea Party back in January. Much to Bachmann’s surprise the Tea Party is a force to be reckoned with and she, the traitor, will be their first casualty. The Tea Party will turn on Bachmann with a force that she could never even imagine.
Both Mittwit and Bachmann’s presidential campaigns are relying on legal advice from partners at Patton Boggs Washington power law firm.
It turned some heads when she retained as her presidential campaign
lawyer Patton Boggs partner Bill McGinley, a well-regarded and cautious ESTABLISHMENT Republican who had served as general counsel to the
National Republican Senatorial Committee and deputy counsel to the
Republican National Committee.
McGinley had helped Bachmann set up her congressional campaign and
leadership political action committees, and, with his help, she has
built a surprisingly robust presidential campaign apparatus that has helped her surge in the polls.
Bachmann spokeswoman Alice Stewart called McGinley “one of the best
in town,” adding that “a firewall has been established at Patton Boggs
between Bill and attorneys for Mitt Romney.” YEAH RIGHT!
Campaign finance insiders had expected Bachmann might end up with
Cleta Mitchell, a partner at the mega firm Foley & Lardner, who in
2010 developed a niche representing tea party Republicans
including Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina and unsuccessful Senate
candidates Sharron Angle of Nevada, Joe Miller of Alaska and Christine
O’Donnell of Delaware.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0711/58604.html
Patton Boggs brother of ABC reporter Cokie Roberts. Patton Boggs son of Hale Boggs killed in a plane crash in Alaska with Sen Begich’s dad.
All these politico are in bed with each other and NOT in bed with the Tea Party.
It’s time to connect the dots.
Why Sarah Palin Must Run
by Tammy Bruce
“Despite the desperate and not surprisingly shallow belief by the boys in control of the GOP, Palin cannot be replaced by another woman, or another Tea Party supporter, or another Brunette (no matter how much they think a Stalking Horse will split the Tea Party vote). Palin’s impact is unique, significant and deep. Her influence rests on background, experience, legitimacy and most important of all—trust. These are the reasons why Palin matters, the same reasons why the GOP machine appropriately sees her, and no one else, as an existential threat to their status quo.”
“The contempt the GOP machine has for the average Republican voter is best illustrated by their other Big Fear—Palin does win the nomination! And why should we fear that? Well, that would be a disaster, because, uh, there’s no way she could win the general election and they have to stop that catastrophe from happening! You know, because Mr. Next-In-Line is for sure the only one who can beat Obama. Just like in 2008. Or something.
The truth of the matter is quite the opposite. They fear a Palin nomination because they know if she wins the GOP nod, she wins the general election. How? Consider these years of frantic and pathological attacks on Palin, all of which she has survived with the grace and dignity so void in her accusers. Now imagine what the establishment will try to do to her during the nominating process. If she wins the nomination despite what they do, it means she not only has convinced Republicans under extraordinary circumstances, she will have convinced the rest of the nation as well. If she wins the nomination with all that she will undoubtedly face during the Republican primaries, the presidency is hers.”
Big Government
Stephen Bannon (US Naval Academy, Harvard MBA, Goldman Sachs) at the Heritage Foundation.
If you haven’t seen it it is well worth 38 minutes of your time. Very thoughtful and articulate.
You Tube
One thing notable. You are beginning to see some very smart, accomplished, far seeing people forming up at Sarah Palin’s right hand. Don’t discount it.
I see the above link does not work, try this:
You Tube
“Towson Lawyer | July 9, 2011 at 3:16 am
It is most unfortunate that we can’t combine the presence of a Romney, the principles of a Bachmann, the fire of a Cain and Christie, the savvy of a Jacobson and the foreign policy of a Bolton.”
TL, we have better than that. We have Sarah Palin. She will run. She will win.
File this under: Let’s do the time warp again March 1980
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,921912-2,00.html
“And since G.O.P. Front Runner Ronald Reagan relies upon a base of support that is on the far right wing of the Republican Party, some experts have long declared that if he wins the nomination, the G.O.P. would simply be repeating the suicidal Goldwater campaign. Ex-President Gerald Ford left no doubt about his views when he warned last month: “A very conservative Republican cannot win in a national election.”
” National opinion polls continue to show Carter leading Reagan by an apparently comfortable margin of about 25%. They also show that more moderate Republicans like Ford would run better against the President”
“Reagan cannot hope to win, however, unless he moves beyond the hard-line conservative base that has sustained him since he first appeared on the national political scene as a spokesman for Goldwater himself. He has no experience in Washington politics or foreign affairs. ”
“Worse perhaps than the verbal gaffe is Reagan’s relentlessly simple-minded discussion of complex problems”
“One of his proposed cures for inflation is the notion that a huge tax cut will restore the productive vitality of the economy and control price rises. Most economists believe this approach is nonsense, that it would simply fuel more inflation.”
“Reagan’s loose statements and flabby positions will make splendid targets for Jimmy Carter. John Sears, Reagan’s former campaign manager, was worried by that very problem during his year-and-a-half reign, and after Reagan fired him in late February, Sears complained publicly that Reagan does not have well-prepared policy positions. Frets Sears: “I’m not sure that he is now adequately briefed on matters on which politicians and the press and the people hold him to account.”
My prediction, Palin will enter the race end of summer, win the primaries then defeat the incumbent in a landslide.
Further, she is young enough to activate the Conservative movement for decades; this is the reaon why the Rockefeller Republicans fear her, she will put an end to that Rockefeller stronghold over the Conservative Republicans.
Game On.
Announcement will come on or after July 27th. Something to do with July 26th, 2009 and the legal battles that Sarah was fighting.
Palin Plots Her Next Move
“I believe that I can win a national election,” Sarah Palin declared one recent evening, sitting in the private dining room of a hotel in rural Iowa. The occasion for her visit to quintessential small-town America was a gathering of the faithful that would have instantaneously erupted into a fervent campaign rally had she but given the word. Instead, it had been another day on the non–campaign trail, this one capped by a sweet victory: she had just attended the premiere of a glowingly positive documentary about her titled The Undefeated.
“The people of America are desperate for positive change, and deserving of positive change, to get us off of this wrong track,” she told me during a conversation that lasted late into the night and, inevitably, kept returning to the subject that has titillated the media and spooked Republican presidential contenders for months: her political intentions. “I’m not so egotistical as to believe that it has to be me, or it can only be me, to turn things around,” she said. “But I do believe that I can win.”
Newsweek