North Korea Announced the Suspension of Nuclear and Missile Tests, But What Does That Really Mean?
Ahead of the summit with South Korea, North Korea could be acting in good faith…or, they could be removing a bargaining chip from the table in advance.
Friday, North Korea announced the suspension of nuclear and long-range missile tests.
From the New York Post:
North Korea says it has suspended nuclear and long-range missile tests and plans to close its nuclear test site.
The North’s official Korean Central News Agency said the suspension of nuclear and ICBM tests went into effect Saturday.
The country says it’s making the move to shift its national focus and improve its economy.
The announcements came days before North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is set to meet South Korean President Moon Jae-in in a border truce village for a rare summit aimed at resolving the nuclear standoff with Pyongyang.
The North’s decisions were made in a meeting of the ruling party’s full Central Committee which had convened to discuss a “new stage” of policies.
Sounds great at the outset, but what does it really mean?
First, the six points from King Jong-un:
Here's KCNA with six points from Kim Jong-un. The Punggye-ri test site will close *because* North Korea feels it has conducted sufficient testing and is happy with its weapons. That's important context here. pic.twitter.com/uRlu30LG2O
— Ankit Panda (@nktpnd) April 20, 2018
Point 4 is important: pledging not to transfer nuclear weapons or technology. One, because that’s a big concern in Washington. But also two, implies they will keep them…but simply not transfer them. https://t.co/q25r7wbPYy
— Vipin Narang (@NarangVipin) April 20, 2018
Ahead of the summit with South Korea, North Korea could be acting in good faith…ooooorrrrr, they could be removing a bargaining chip from the table in advance.
Several experts tell me this move is primarily a gesture from Kim Jong Un but also one that puts the ball squarely in Trump's court ahead of a potential summit. https://t.co/tljroThl29
— Zachary Cohen (@ZcohenCNN) April 20, 2018
And more expert analysis:
The precise language here is important. Closing the testing site doesn’t preclude atmospheric nuclear tests for example (or other sites). And missile tests could still be conducted under the guise of space launch vehicles. Language matters— for how it can be potentially flanked. https://t.co/9Tltru7ueQ
— Vipin Narang (@NarangVipin) April 20, 2018
They have reached a point in their development cycle/testing sequence that this is probably technologically true. In fact they told us in November already that they had reached completion of their nuclear deterrent. https://t.co/VBSY9ePZW0
— Vipin Narang (@NarangVipin) April 20, 2018
Known nuclear tests by regional nuclear powers:
India: 6
Pakistan: 6
North Korea: 6
Israel: 0 or 1
South Africa: 0DPRK can probably stop where it is and still be fine.
— Vipin Narang (@NarangVipin) April 20, 2018
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Comments
It means a LOT of folks are going to find out how tasty crow tastes. President Trump, the tweeting idiot that really didn’t want to win and was a total joke…. evidently has ended the Korean War and denuked North Korea. Huh..
Elites hardest hit.
What does it really mean? Depends what the meaning of ‘it’ is.
Let’s check in with our legal expert.
(four months later)
Yeah. It is a legal grey area.
Clinton and Bush both thought they got him to stop pursing nukes too. He’s following the AQ Khan playbook for nuclear weapons development by 3rd world despots. I hope you’re right, but history says you’re not.
“Clinton and Bush both thought they got him to stop pursing nukes too.”
No, they didn’t. They thought they had you fooled into believing that. Nothing more.
Yes they did. Don’t be ignorant. Notice how their walking away from ‘agreements’ always coincides with changes of administrations here? Seriously, read up on history. I’m not insulting The Cheeto God, just pointing out historical fact.
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron
Yeah, we’ll see Paul. The difference this time: UN not involved at all. No money involved. Jimmah Carter not involved. State Dept not involved. No concessions announced by US… just the NORKS…
A lot of what appears to being set up is unprecedented. We could be on the verge of the Korean War officially ended and a commitment for the north and south to get along, if not reunify. Who knows.
I’m old and pay attention, and this is completely different than under Clinton, Bush or Obama. And that’s the Nuclear window time of the North. I think great credit will go and does go to Trump and his ability to deal with China. This is all to do with Xi and Trump. We’ll see.
I hope you’re right, the fewer Loonie Tunes with nukes the better.
And if he does give them up, Trump will deserve a Nobel Peace Prize. Hell, after Obama got one for going on his first Apology Tour the bar is pretty low on that.
I keep thinking “what is different now?” and coming back to the idea that it’s the threat of an all-out trade war that has the Chicoms forcing the Norks to the table here.
But whatever the cause, we need to watch what actually happens here. They have a long history of doing the rope-a-dope and true success will take many years to play out (or not).
It means they are still using shiny objects.
Stand for nothing but full disarmament verified by constant no-restriction inspectors.
How hard is that?
Total Disarmament! Touche!
Nothing so far means much.
Like, say, this—
India: 6
Pakistan: 6
North Korea: 6
Israel: 0 or 1
South Africa: 0
DPRK can probably stop where it is and still be fine.
I don’t think the Nork’s saber-rattling was aimed at Pakistan or South Africa. So this is relevant to … not much.
One of the Nork’s problems is that they’ve never really demonstrated anything much. Some signs of what might be underground nuke tests were detected outside, but whether those were “successful” tests depends entirely on what they were trying to test, and of course nobody knows that. And they’ve tested some rockets, which may or may not have worked the way they’re supposed to. The only time they ever announced an objective beforehand—the splashdown they were threatening near Guam—was a test which never happened, so it demonstrated nothing. In any case, there’s no way that they’re dumb enough to think that one or two atomic devices—which may or may not work—establish the North as a world power.
Most likely their test site has become unusable and Kim is pretending to make that sound like a virtue. And the desire to “improve the economy” implies that the Chinese aren’t funding him anymore. Which of course neither the Chinese nor the Norks will ever publicly admit.
So I wouldn’t get too excited here. An atomic nothingburger is still a nothingburger.
Unfortunately the weak point in the Korean situation is probably the South. For some years the South Koreans have been as silly as Obamites, wringing their hands over the idea that if it wasn’t for that big bully the United States, Korea would be united today. And so it would—it would all be North Korea (although their reasoning doesn’t seem to progress to that point). Too many in the South are looking for an opportunity to surrender, much as western Liberals are trying to surrender to Islamic conquest. A strange effect, but very dangerous.
So I don’t care much what Kim says to entertain the press; I’m far more concerned about the noises coming from Moon.
This is just a ploy to get the U.S. to remove its troops from South Korea.
Bang!
Bang!
Bang!
click
click
…
Cease fire!
We don’t trust the head of the FBI, CIA, Justice Department, former secretary of state hillary klinton, former presidents klinton and obama, the American news and entertainment media, educators, head of the IRS, on and on and on – so why would be trust this lunatic?
Trust but verify.
Same way they are saying that today, the day after tomorrow they could go “Nah, … we will continue nuclear testing”.
Never, ever, believe anything that a communist dictator says.
Well, they’re going to need a new mountain. The old one is a little leaky.
I wonder how many of their nuclear brain trust were in that mountain when it collapsed. I also wonder how much of their enriching equipment ditto. I also wonder if they have any other sites that could be used for their nuclear testing. It just might be that geographic factors have put NKor out of the nuclear business and Kim is trying to salvage something. And I’ll be Trump knows the answers to all of the above.
My impression is that China wants to keep the trade relationship with the U.S.A. more or less intact, and therefore, when President Trump put the squeeze on China to quit enabling N.K., eventually China reduced their trade with N.K.
So, N.K. is hurting more than usual. Instead of getting bribes from us to quit building nukes as was done in the previous 20 years, we’ve reduced its trade and subsidies, and it’s having a problem.
So, at least Kim is putting up a front of stopping nuke development and is taking steps with S.K. to de-escalate and perhaps end that war. This is a breathtaking step in the right direction.
Of course, it’s possible that Kim is a sociopathic liar and it’s all a ruse, and that’s where knowledgeable advisers come in. The president isn’t a nuclear arms expert, so let’s hope he’s got knowledgeable advisers.
I hope they don’t make the kind of mistake US General Norman Schwarzkopf made at the conclusion of the Iraq-Kuwait war, when the terms of surrender
“carelessly authorized the Iraqis to use helicopter gunships on their side of the cease-fire line. The Iraqi generals were so surprised by that concession—which permitted them to strafe and rocket Kurds and Shiites from the air—that one of the Iraqi generals incredulously asked: “So you mean even the helicopters that are armed can fly in the Iraqi skies?” Having first foresworn a breakup of Iraq and then encouraged one, the Bush administration spent the last days of the conflict watching its would-be insurgents being hunted into “no-fly zones” and debating what to do. Bush finally accepted Scowcroft’s position that he must leave Iraq united and reasonably strong to balance Iranian power. Powell and Schwarzkopf warned against any “Lebanonization” of Iraq that, as Powell put it, would leave Washington to “sort out 2,000 years of Mesopotamian history.” It’s too bad they didn’t enforce that view until after all of those Iraqis had been driven from their homes and slaughtered.”
-from https://www.thedailybeast.com/first-gulf-wars-mistakes-explain-us-presence-in-iraq
So, good tight negotiations are critical as well as good implementation of any agreement.
CTF: “So, N.K. is hurting more than usual. Instead of getting bribes from us to quit building nukes as was done in the previous 20 years, we’ve reduced its trade and subsidies, and it’s having a problem.”
Absolutely. What gives me pause for optimism here is Kim’s trip to the woodshed in Beijing last month. You can credit Trump, or you can credit the Chinese, or you can credit both; but the fact is, as Dylan wrote, “the times they are a changin’.”
Is that a mic, or a feeding tube?
So if China has stopped propping North Korea up financially where do you think the pressure for that move came from? Can tell you know it wasn’t pressure applied from the Black Baby Jesus ™ or a move primarily out of the goodness of the Chinese heart!
IF true, then thats come from China’s new relationship with America and thats come about because of one man, and one man only…the orange anointed one!
As RobM has already succinctly stated…hardest hit are the liberal elites! These idiots were assuring us that the election of President Trump meant we were all going to be going to war with everyone they could think of and your stocks would crash and the economy would crash and you would be out of a job and you would be a rwaaaacist!
And they got exactly EVERYTHING wrong! Instead, now that we have fucking adults in charge, we seem to be closer to peace than ever before on the Korean peninsula, the economy is rocketing along and people are working…oh…and we haven’t gone to war with every man and their dog…we are merely executing differently our engagement in the conflicts we are already involved in around the world…HUGE difference!
So fuck you you fucking fucks who call your selves our political elites!
This story sure sounds like a rerun to me. However, nobody wants our troops out of SKorea more than China. Maybe China saw their chance and put the screws to Un until we are gone. I know, I know. But it COULD be.
I commented on this very issue on the Hill website and a progressive Trump hater wrote me and said that everything Trump has done is yet to be realized. I pointed out the tax bill, NAFTA and trade with China, pressure on Japan to even the field on our exports there, the rapid change in NK and the up coming meeting that has Never happened in history, the cancellation of many of obama’s executive orders and the fact that the EU is trying to figure out how much to CONCEDE to Trump in the new trade pact between them and the US. I finally mentioned the SCOTUS appointment. Not bad for a guy who has been under investigation his entire term so far and who has been demonized by every msm out let but a handful!