Sabato: Martha Robertson all but done (#NY23)(Update: Cook Too)
Not quite sticking a fork in the campaign, but pretty close, declaring district “Likely Republican”
I can’t remember the last time a non-partisan major national analyst gave Democrat Martha Robertson much chance of winning in my home NY-23 District against incumbent Republican Tom Reed.
Maybe early this year, when Robertson was the fresh face of the Democratic Party, the darling of Emily’s List, and a coveted Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) “Red-to-Blue” designee.
The past few months, however, have not been kind to Robertson. Scandals that surfaced early in the campaign never went away and sapped her campaign of any momentum. Robertson’s campaign seemed emotionally incapable of accepting responsibility for anything, and her hiding act from the media made her seem distant.
Robertson’s fat shaming attacks on Reed, which gained national attention, took a struggling campaign and turned it into something of a circus sideshow act.
Robertson seemed not to know how to deal with Reed’s “extreme Ithaca liberal” attack ads on Robertson other than to whine about it, which just repeated the message. It resonated.
Then the DCCC pulled the plug on TV ad time reserved for the last two weeks of the campaign, in a devastating blow, not just financially, but in campaign credibility. When your strongest backers walk away, it sends a message to voters.
Robertson had only about half the cash on hand as of September 30 as Reed, $498,529 to $919,391, so the loss of over $400,000 in DCCC spending hurts.
The true Robertson believers are seeing conspiracy theories everywhere:
#JamestownPostJournel #DunkirkObserver #BuffaloNews decidedly biased in favor of dishonest congressional representatives. #NY23 #ReedPeat
— WNYPlanner (@WNYPlanner) October 16, 2014
And are blaming the messenger:
The Cornell Law Professor & author of LegalInsurrection blog apparently a Wall Street Sock Puppet. #NoObjectivity #DirtyPolitics #NY23
— WNYPlanner (@WNYPlanner) October 7, 2014
They’re even false-flag trolling our comment section pretending to be conservative and arguing that Tom Reed is not conservative enough.
But that won’t change anything, and things just got worse.
Add to the piling on, by Larry Sabato’s respected Crystal Ball ratings, which just moved the District from Lean Republican to Likely Republican.
Sabato didn’t downgrade the race to “Safe Republican.” That’s what passes for good news for the Robertson campaign these days.
But don’t count her out. Miracles happens.
UPDATE: The Cook Political Report is counting Martha out:
New @CookPolitical ratings: #MI07 Walberg (R) & #NY23 Reed (R) move from Likely R to Solid R. http://t.co/QdZHLHCiJx
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 17, 2014
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Comments
This was supposed to be the most transparent blog ever and now we learn you are a Wall Street sock puppet.
People who are into “bi-polarization of the US” may not realize that the sock puppet is on the other foot.
To be thorough, there is a third option for males.
You have a leg up on me.
Obviously it’s Martha who comes with all kinds of strings attached — not Professor Jacobson.
OK, Prof., it’s high time you came clean.
How much WSJ payola HAVE you banked?
Inquiring minds…
The Democrat Party in Tompkins Cty. historically puts up and backs a Congressional candidate from one of their own. Their “own” happened to be Martha Robertson, a hard line left of center progressive who models and promotes herself on the likes of Nancy Pelosi. What is different in this congressional cycle is the Democrats never had to campaign (defend) for their candidate(s) on the stage with a national audience. They never bargained for exposure on a highly regarded conservative blog.
Thanks go out here to Prof., who by chance or design, resides in the 23rd. and has led the charge using the L-I platform to level the playing field by allowing sunshine on what the progressives have on their list for our representation in the House. As of today, Cong. Tom Reed (R) is polling at +8.
Do you have a link to that poll?
http://www.electionprojection.com/2014-elections/new-york-23rd-district-election.php
Well, Professor. I must certainly extend my heartfelt congratulations. Not since I found secondcitycop’s blog have I seen so many butthurt trolls in the comments section.
This is good proof you really are making a difference !
I think she’s toast.