Despite record-setting spending by establishment Democrats and allied political action committees to boost Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary on Tuesday, far-left candidate Abdul El-Sayed appears all but certain to win. He leads in every major poll by double digits, and the RealClearPolitics polling average gives him a 10.2-point advantage.
In the X post below, writer M.A. Rothman breaks down the results of a recent Emerson poll which showed El-Sayed ahead by 15 points, 54%— 39%. After allocating the undecided vote, the margin widens to 57%–41%.
Voters under 50 break for El-Sayed by 42 points, 67 to 25. Independents back him by 27. Only voters over 60 side with Stevens, and by just 14 points.
[Haley also leads El-Sayed among black voters by a significant margin, which I’ll return to shortly.]
Although El-Sayed insists he is a progressive Democrat rather than a democratic socialist, his platform has made him a favorite among the party’s democratic socialist wing for a reason. His far-left agenda is why many Republicans consider him a socialist.
And therein lies his Achilles’ heel.
As El-Sayed pivots to the general election, he faces a formidable opponent in Republican Mike Rogers, the popular former U.S. congressman.
The RealClearPolitics polling average suggests Rogers runs stronger against El-Sayed than against Stevens. It shows Rogers trailing Stevens by 1.7 points in a hypothetical general election, while holding a slim 0.3-point edge over El-Sayed. Excluding two earlier polls conducted in May and June, Rogers’ advantage over El-Sayed grows to 1.5 points.
Rothman cited a recent Glengariff Group poll showing Rogers with a commanding 10-point lead over El-Sayed. Among independents, Rogers led by a striking 28 points. By contrast, the same poll found Rogers and Stevens tied. Although such a dramatic result may be an outlier, I don’t doubt that the prospect of electing a “socialist” is a frightening one for many voters.
So, ultimately, an El-Sayed nomination on Tuesday could prove to be a gift for Republicans. As Rothman succinctly puts it, “Nominate the socialist, hand Republicans the seat.”
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reclaim the Senate majority, making Michigan one of the party’s most important battlegrounds in 2026. A victory there is widely viewed as essential to any realistic path back to the party’s control of the chamber.
Let’s return to El-Sayed’s strength — or more accurately, his weakness — among black voters. His campaign is well aware that he is struggling with this voting bloc and has been working to improve his standing.
The Washington Free Beacon reported last week that the El-Sayed campaign has taken a page from former Vice President Kamala Harris’s playbook. You may recall that during her 2024 presidential run, she appeared on professional race-baiter Rev. Al Sharpton’s MSNBC show where she was given a softball interview and a fawning endorsement. Shortly afterward, it was revealed that her campaign had made a $500,000 contribution to Sharpton’s nonprofit, the National Action Network.
According to the Free Beacon, El-Sayed campaign finance disclosures show that over a nine-month period beginning in October, the campaign paid a total of $75,000 to Ecumenical Ministers Alliance, a nonprofit founded by Detroit pastor and radio host Horace Sheffield III, for “political consulting.”
As a prominent black leader, Sheffield carries considerable influence within the black community.
From the Free Beacon:
Sheffield enthusiastically endorsed Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed during a radio interview last week, urging listeners to make “5 and 10 phone calls” to help propel the left-wing Democrat to victory. Unmentioned in the glowing interview was that El-Sayed’s campaign has paid tens of thousands of dollars to Sheffield’s nonprofit organization….Last week’s radio interview is at least the third time Sheffield, the pastor of New Destiny Christian Fellowship, has boosted El-Sayed on his radio show or in social media posts, all without disclosing the financial relationship. The pastor’s endorsements are especially helpful to El-Sayed, who badly trails his primary opponent, Rep. Haley Stevens, in support from black voters….Sheffield, father of current Detroit mayor Mary Sheffield, lavished praise on El-Sayed during their recent interview, echoing the Democrat’s campaign talking points on corporate PAC money and Medicare for All. Sheffield urged supporters to vote for El-Sayed, and attacked Stevens, a moderate Democrat who leads El-Sayed by 46 points among black Michigan voters. Sheffield referred to Stevens as “the person who is running” and said she “has never been seen” in Detroit.”Lord, help this man win,” said Sheffield.”You can’t buy authenticity,” said El-Sayed.
Despite Sheffield’s influence, El-Sayed currently trails Stevens by 46 points among black voters statewide. Because there is no baseline showing his level of support among black voters before the payments to Sheffield’s nonprofit began, it’s impossible to determine whether the investment had any measurable effect.
Even so, the arrangement raises serious ethical questions. At its core, it looks uncomfortably close to pay-for-play — and that’s not a good look for any campaign.
Kudos to the Free Beacon for uncovering the story. It could prove to be valuable ammunition for Mike Rogers in the general election.
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