It’s been surreal to watch the Democrats circle the wagons around Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner, given the seemingly unending stream of disturbing revelations from his past. Despite the controversies, Platner continues to hold a 7.4-point lead over Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins in the RealClearPolitics polling average. With control of the Senate potentially hanging in the balance, Democrats are reluctant to abandon a candidate who is currently ahead in one of this election cycle’s most consequential races.
The real test will come if the steady drumbeat of bad news begins to chip away at Platner’s advantage. It will be interesting to see whether the party’s steadfast support endures if his lead in the polls starts to evaporate.
While I realize one or two survey results do not establish a trend, the last two polls of the race suggest the negative press may finally be taking a toll.
On Wednesday, Public Policy Polling (the Platner campaign’s internal pollster) released a new survey that showed Platner ahead of Collins by just 4 points. Data guru Nate Silver called the latest result “not super reassuring” for the embattled Maine oyster farmer.
He highlighted the poll in a post on X: “An internal poll showing +4 is not super reassuring given that internal polls typically exaggerate their candidate’s standing by 4 points or so. And that’s smaller than Platner’s lead in most public polls before.”
The bigger shock came on Friday. A survey released by Republican polling firm Fabrizio, Lee & Associates on behalf of the pro-Collins Pine Tree Results PAC showed Platner and Collins tied at 46%.
In an internal memo, obtained by Politico, pollsters Tony Fabrizio, David Lee, and Travis Tunis wrote:
It is clear that the more voters learn about Platner the more they find they don’t like him, making the Senate race HIGHLY competitive. Senator Collins and her allies need to muster the resources to keep the pressure on Platner as the Democrat money machine tries to salvage Platner’s candidacy.
Samuel Chamberlain, a political editor for The New York Post, noted:
In an ominous sign for Platner, the survey showed nearly half (49%) of respondents had an unfavorable view of the Democrat compared to 29% who had the same opinion in January. The candidate’s net favorability rating had also plunged into negative territory, with just 40% holding a favorable view — and only 4% saying they had never heard of Platner.In addition, 59% of respondents said the revelations about Platner’s Kik activity would make them less likely to vote for him, while 33% said it would make no difference in their support.
Each of these polls was conducted after reports surfaced that Platner had exchanged sexually explicit messages online with as many as a dozen women while he was married. They do not, however, reflect any potential fallout from a devastating article published by The New York Times on Thursday.
The piece, titled “Several Women Who Dated Graham Platner Recall ‘Unsettling’ Behavior,” was based on interviews with more than two dozen women, including six who had dated Platner at various points in his life. The article dominated national headlines for more than a day and continues to generate discussion. [I wrote about the story here.]
Adding to the uncertainty is Collins’ long history of outperforming her polling numbers. In her 2020 reelection campaign, for example, she consistently trailed Democratic challenger Sara Gideon in the polls, only to win the race by 8.6 percentage points.
While it’s too early to read too much into these new polls, they may be an early indication that Platner’s past is finally catching up with him.
Whether the recent revelations have altered voter sentiment will become clearer on Tuesday, when Maine primary voters head to the polls.
Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on LinkedIn.
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