Despite polls and conventional wisdom suggesting Republicans would be shut out of California’s top statewide and local races, early returns from Tuesday’s primary tell a different story. While the final results may not be known for several days, as of 9 a.m. Wednesday, with 62% of precincts reporting, Republican Steve Hilton leads the gubernatorial field with 27.8% of the vote. Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra follows at 25.4%, while billionaire Tom Steyer, who has reportedly spent $200 million on his primary campaign, trails at 19.6%. The current results put Hilton in a strong position to advance to the general election.
Meanwhile, in the runoff for Los Angeles mayor, Republican outsider Spencer Pratt also appears poised to advance to the next round. With 69% of the vote counted, incumbent Mayor Karen Bass leads with 34.8% of the vote, followed by Pratt at 30.4%. City Council member Nithya Raman lags behind at 22.3%. If the current numbers hold, Pratt will have outperformed recent polling that projected he would miss the runoff entirely.
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The contest to replace term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom has undergone many twists and turns, highlighted by the spectacular political collapse of former Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell in April, who was once considered the clear frontrunner in the race.
At his primary night watch party, Hilton, a former Fox News host and Trump’s endorsed candidate, energized a standing-room-only crowd with a simple message: “Change is coming to California, and it’s long overdue.”
During his remarks, Hilton revealed the inside lining of his blazer, which featured American and California flags. He said former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, had encouraged him several years ago to add the design, prompting Hilton to declare, “Arnold, I did that for you.” The gesture drew a thunderous ovation from supporters.
Hilton launched his campaign in April 2025, with a promise to “end the years of Democrat failure” in California. He told voters, “It’s time to make California Golden Again.”
In an interview with Fox News following his speech, Hilton credited his success so far in the race to speaking “honest, simple truths” to voters. “Everything is too expensive in California,” he said. “We’re going to cut people’s costs.”
Although he is seeking a local office, former reality television star Spencer Pratt has emerged as a national political curiosity thanks to a string of creative, entertaining, and surprisingly effective campaign ads. The growing excitement and online buzz surrounding Pratt’s ads have captured the public’s imagination — particularly in the weeks since he turned a candidate debate with Bass and Raman into must-see television.
One recent ad played on the idea of the “silent Pratt voter.” Drawing a parallel to the so-called silent Trump voters whom pollsters were accused of overlooking in 2016, the ad suggests that many Pratt supporters are similarly reluctant to reveal their preferences to pollsters. It features four women at a Pilates studio who each quietly admit they plan to vote for Pratt.
This extremely effective ad reflects the toll that decades of progressive governance have taken on Los Angeles. The city has undergone a profound decline, yet those who dare to acknowledge that reality often feel compelled to voice their views in private, fearful of being ostracized by their peers.
Understandably, Pratt’s confrontational, rapid-response style of campaigning has made him a thorn in Democrats’ side. After reports surfaced in May that Pratt stayed at the upscale Hotel Bel-Air after losing his home in the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires, he quickly released a highly amusing ad spoofing the theme song from The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air.
Pratt’s authenticity — and his fervent desire to reverse Los Angeles’s decline — appears to be resonating with voters. He is genuinely alarmed by the city’s trajectory and determined to change it.
What began as a long-shot candidacy is increasingly looking like a serious political campaign. Pratt is effectively channeling the frustration many Angelenos feel toward the city’s political establishment — frustration that was intensified by widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s response to the wildfires.
California remains a difficult state for Republicans, and both Hilton and Pratt still face steep challenges in the months ahead. But Tuesday’s results should serve as a reminder that political momentum matters and that voter frustration can upend longstanding political assumptions.
Hilton has proven himself to be a disciplined, articulate candidate with a message that is obviously resonating with voters. And Pratt has demonstrated an unusual ability to connect with voters through authenticity, humor, and relentless campaigning. Whatever happens in November, one thing is already clear: anyone who continues to dismiss either man is making a serious mistake.
Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on LinkedIn.
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