Kamala Harris Runs Fourth in 2028 California Poll
“California is not just another state in a primary calendar. It is her political home base, where she served as attorney general and later as U.S. senator.”
A newly released Berkeley IGS poll offers an early look at how California Democrats are approaching the 2028 presidential field. For former Vice President Kamala Harris, the topline numbers raise immediate questions about her standing within her own political base.
The poll finds that Harris draws 9% support as a first choice among California Democrats, placing her fourth overall.
“Governor Gavin Newsom holds a large early lead” with 28% of Democratic voters selecting him as their first choice. “Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez places a distant second at 14%, followed by former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg at 11%.”
California is not just another state in a primary calendar. It is Harris’s political home base, where she served as attorney general and later as U.S. senator. Early polling in a home state is not determinative, but it typically reflects a baseline level of familiarity and institutional support.
At this stage, Harris is not showing that advantage.
The gap between Harris and the top tier is not marginal. She trails Newsom by nearly twenty points and sits behind two other national Democratic figures, suggesting her support is not consolidating even within a familiar electorate.
The poll also looks beyond first-choice preferences to how voters respond when asked for a second choice.
“When first- and second-choice preferences are combined, about four in ten California Democrats say they would support Newsom if he runs for president.”
That combined figure captures more than just committed support. It reflects broader acceptability within the party and suggests Newsom is functioning not only as the leading candidate, but also as a fallback option for a significant share of voters, an early sign of consolidation that is not yet visible elsewhere in the field.
Harris does see an increase when second-choice preferences are included.
“Harris obtains an additional 11% support as a second choice among Democratic voters.”
Even with that additional support, she remains behind the leading candidates and does not narrow the gap with the top tier, leaving her positioned within the field rather than at the front of it as preferences begin to take shape.
The poll further breaks down support across demographic and ideological groups, offering a more detailed view of where candidates are gaining traction.
“Harris receives greater support from Latino and Black Democratic voters and from younger voters, but less support from strongly liberal voters, many of whom prefer Ocasio-Cortez.”
Those patterns reinforce what the topline numbers already suggest. Harris retains support within parts of the Democratic coalition. Still, it is uneven and does not point to early consolidation around her candidacy, particularly when compared to the broader alignment forming behind Newsom.
Early polling always comes with caveats, and this stage of a presidential cycle is defined as much by fluidity as by structure, with candidates not yet formally declared and voter preferences still subject to change as campaigns begin to take shape.
Still, as an early snapshot, the poll offers a clear baseline: Harris is not leading in her home state, is not second, and remains part of a broader field trailing a candidate consolidating early support and two others drawing more first-choice backing.
That does not determine where the race will end, but it does define where it begins.
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Comments
She’s running fourth? Must be only three people in the race.
Have to wonder how many illegal invaders were in the poll.
I’m sure her speech at Jesse Jackson’s service where she again mentioned, being ‘unburdened” helped her numbers.
Didn’t hear speech. Have to assume “unburdened by conscience or morality.”
They’re all losers. We should be unburdened from all democrats (not that Republicans are great either).
Does this woman have any redeeming qualities at all?
She’s as dumb as a rock, as ill spoken as anyone who has ever been on the public stage.
And that’s before considering any of her policy positions.
Can you imagine the mess we’d be in now just a few months after the last election?
Do you think that she would have confronted any of the challenges the Trump administration has confronted?
I think I’m on rock solid ground saying that at every turn things would be far worse.
She needs to stay far, far away from the levers of power.
To answer your first question she obviously satisfied Willie Brown’s desires, at least temporarily.
Political failure, a tumbled-off fence turtle..
New York Times: “Beloved elder statesperson…”
No worries. She will be out of the race long before the CA primary.
Remember, in every election she has peaked at her announcement
Except for the one where she peaked at Joe’s announcement.
If she can’t make it there, she won’t make it anywhere.
It’s up to you New York, New York.
🎼🎶
👍
DEI hire dingbat feminist fraud?
I live in California. Charles Manson (D, Dead) wins statewide.
Her being elected AG/Senator from California means nothing. Get on the ballot with a (D) and you are in.
Yes, but he doesn’t win the D primary. That’s what this is about.