China’s Air Displays Fail to Deter Emerging Taiwan–Japan Alignment

China’s Air Displays Fail to Deter Emerging Taiwan–Japan Alignment

I recently reported that there was a sudden lull in Chinese jet incursions into Taiwan’s airspace, which had a variety of possible explanations.

Whatever inspired the brief break has ended, and the Chinese have returned with quite the display.

The ministry detected 26 Chinese military aircraft around the island on Saturday, with 16 of them entering its northern, central and southwestern Air Defense Identification Zone. Seven naval ships were spotted around the island, it reported.

The increased number of aircraft came after the ministry reported a fall that left analysts scratching their heads about what China’s military may be up to.

Taiwan didn’t report any Chinese military planes that went beyond the median line and entered the zone for a week from Feb. 27 to March 5. After two were detected on March 6, the next four days had none. Such flights resumed in small numbers between Wednesday and Friday.

🚨🇨🇳🇹🇼 FLASH | La Chine a encerclé Taïwan avec 26 avions de combat et 7 navires de guerre. pic.twitter.com/i57dhsTvoN

— Novia News (@NoviaNewsGroup) March 16, 2026

China offered no explanation for the exercises, but, like the lull, they may be tied to an upcoming visit by President Donald Trump or the recent purge of the military leadership by President Xi Jinping.

Officials and experts have said the disappearance of aircraft could be because Beijing is trying to recalibrate its pressure campaign ahead of US President Donald Trump’s planned visit to China from March 31 or Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) ongoing purge of senior Chinese generals.

Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo (顧立雄) said that while the aircraft had left, there are still Chinese warships around the nation and the threat posed by Beijing remains.

Some analysts view that these purges may make China more inclined to go “all-in” on a takeover of Taiwan.

But the disruptions caused by the purges could leave Xi less confident that his commanders are ready for combat, analysts say.

“There’s no one right now at the highest level who has operational experience or who is in charge of training and exercises,” said Shanshan Mei, a political scientist who studies China’s armed forces. “This is going to cut very deep.”

But it’s also not clear that the changes will lead to more restraint. Another former U.S. government official shared his worries about the potential consequences of purging one of the people who could speak candidly to Xi.

Zhang “could assess U.S. and Taiwan military capabilities objectively and explain to Xi Jinping what the military risks and costs of an operation to take Taiwan would be,” Drew Thompson, a former Pentagon official, wrote on Substack. “I worry about the consequences of someone other than Zhang Youxia providing Xi Jinping with military advice.”

Meanwhile, it must be noted that Japan is stepping up as a regional ally to both the U.S. and Taiwan.

A senior Japanese lawmaker visiting Taipei recently defended Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s earlier comments that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan could be a situation “threatening Japan’s survival,” which, under Japan’s security laws, could justify military action in support of a partner.
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He criticized China’s foreign minister for “distorting” Takaichi’s remarks and described Beijing’s response (e.g., diplomatic protests, economic pressure, and public criticism) as China’s “usual tactics.”

In his address on Monday at the annual Yushan Forum, Keiji Furuya, a senior member of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party who has served in the House of Representatives since 1990, said China had no reason to react negatively to Takaichi’s remarks made on Nov. 7, 2025.

“Prime Minister Takaichi’s remarks maintained the government’s previous position and [were] not problematic,” Furuya said, while taking aim at recent remarks by a Chinese official.

“Last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi misinterpreted her remarks, even going so far as to refer to a threat to national existence, and made criticism that were not based on the facts,” he said.

“This is precisely one of China’s usual tactics, and Japan has no reason to make any concessions.”

Intriguingly, Taiwan’s Premier made a personal trip to Japan and appeared in public to watch the island’s baseball team in action. This was the first such visit from the Taiwan leadership since 1972.

Premier Cho Jung-tai said he was in Tokyo to watch the game between Taiwan and the Czech Republic on March 7 and paid for the trip out of his own pocket, he told reporters in Taipei on March 8.

“My only arrangement there was to cheer for Team Taiwan with our compatriots,” Mr Cho said, adding there was “no other objective” for the trip.

The visit marks the first time a premier from the self-ruled democracy has publicly visited Japan since Taipei and Tokyo severed diplomatic relations in 1972.

Mr Cho’s trip came as relations between Beijing and Tokyo remain at a low point after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said in November that Japan’s armed forces could theoretically be deployed in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Despite renewed Chinese air activity and maritime maneuvers around Taiwan, both Taipei and Tokyo appear unmoved by Beijing’s displays.

Japan’s diplomatic messaging and Taiwan’s unprecedented outreach signal that neither government intends to let Chinese intimidation disrupt their growing strategic alignment.

If anything, Beijing’s attempts at coercion may be accelerating, rather than deterring, the beginnings of “a beautiful friendship”.

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