The U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran are sending shockwaves far beyond the Middle East — straight to Beijing.
Government Accountability Institute President Peter Schweizer told Fox News’ Jesse Watters on Wednesday night that China’s leadership is “in a panic,” with the ripple effects hitting the country like “tidal waves.”
Between the Trump administration’s January capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the war in Iran, “China has lost two of its most important allies in the developing world” in just two months.
Schweizer estimated that roughly 20% to 25% of China’s oil imports came from Venezuela and Iran combined, much of it purchased at steep discounts — about $15 per barrel below market prices.
Pointing to China’s long-term effort to move away from a U.S. dollar–based global economy, he noted that Beijing was paying for the oil in its own currency.
Regarding the current disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Schweizer said, “we now have a chokehold on the Strait.” He said:
Assume that China wanted to move on Taiwan, right? There’s a military response. But now we have a massive energy response which is we simply don’t allow any tankers to ship oil from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. We can do it. It might have been a little bit dicey if we had not taken out the Iranians. That’s roughly half of their oil — 40 to 50% of their oil — is suddenly not available to them.
The war has also put a spotlight on China’s military technology. According to Schweizer:
China provided their most advanced air defense capabilities to Iran. We completely destroyed them. … So China now has the problem that their military technology is not recognized as being up to par with the United States. That’s going to have huge implications with a whole host of other countries.
The war is also hitting China’s AI sector. Schweizer explained that two major Chinese telecommunications firms — ZTE, a state-owned company, and Huawei, heavily subsidized by the Chinese Communist Party — are critical to China’s AI capabilities. Both companies have large contracts with the Venezuelan and Iranian governments, and “they are not going to be paid.” The contracts are worth “tens of billions of dollars.”
Watters asked, assuming the war goes well for the U.S., “What kind of position does that put the U.S. [in] with Venezuela and now Iran more in our orbit?”
Schweizer replied:
Well, it means that a lot of countries in the developing world that might have been flirting with China don’t want to flirt with them anymore. Because they realize that [first], China can sign all the “strategic partnerships” they want, but they’re not going to do anything about it if their allies get in trouble. I mean all China has done is send some scolding messages. They haven’t done a single thing to stand up for their allies.Second of all, they understand that this administration [U.S.] is the partner they want to be in business with — not Beijing.
China analyst Chris Chappell echoed Schweizer’s remarks. He noted on X, “Every country that has been quietly drifting toward Beijing’s orbit, betting that China is the future, is watching Beijing issue press conferences while its strategic partner gets regime-changed.
“And when the moment of truth arrived, all Russia and China could do is say, ‘sorry for your loss.'”
Michael Lucci, the founder of research firm State Armor, joined podcast host Steven Gruber to discuss the war’s impact on China. In addition to the points outlined above, Lucci said “China had a $400 billion, 25-year deal with Iran that began just a few years ago.”
Lucci suggested the strikes on Iran may allow Trump to preempt future confrontations with China, including deterring a potential invasion of Taiwan.
So, you see the United States in the Panama Canal, Greenland, Cuba, Venezuela, Iran — really removing from the table some of Communist China’s pieces in this geopolitical conflict between our two countries. And we’re doing it at a time when China’s not ready and able to respond.So, I think that that’s basically what Trump’s doing. He’s basically fast-forwarding through conflicts that might have occurred in a more costly manor for the United States.If China invades Taiwan, we’re going to have problems in all these other arenas. He’s trying to take those problems off the map now.
The conflict with Iran may ultimately reshape more than the Middle East.
China has grown dependent on Iran’s (and Venezuela’s) cheap oil. Now, they will be paying more for that oil, and, to some extent, Trump has gained a degree of leverage over China’s oil supply.
Additionally, by undermining Beijing’s partners and exposing the limits of their influence, it has forced countries around the world to reassess who truly holds the upper hand in the emerging global rivalry.
For years, the assumption was that China’s rise was inevitable. That assumption now looks far less certain.
Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on X or LinkedIn.
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