Stemming in part from off-year election victories in 2025 that included flips in non-congressional races, the general consensus from the corporate media, the leftist commentariat, and even some on the right seems to be that Republicans are in for a drubbing in the 2026 midterms.
But according to CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten, Democrats are not where they need to be at this stage in the game in terms of approval ratings and generic ballot numbers to have a blue wave next year.
Their net approval ratings were, as Enten described it, “lower than the Dead Sea,” with the voters they rely on the most – Democrat voters and indie voters – being extremely displeased:
“Democrats, in the minds of the American public, are lower than the Dead Sea. What are we talking about here? Well, let’s take a look. The net approval rating for Democrats in Congress … the lowest ever,” Enten said. “Look at this. Overall, they are 55 points underwater. Their approval rating is south of 20%. It’s even worse when you look at independents.”“Look at this: -61 points. That means that their approval rating is 61 points lower than their disapproval rating,” he continued. “Quinnipiac has been polling this question for the better part of the 21st century. They have never found Democrats, at least those in Congress, in worse shape than they are right now.”
The slight bump in numbers Democrats got amid the Schumer Shutdown battle is also gone, Enten also noted, while observing that generic ballot polling number averages show Democrats with only a four-point advantage in comparison to two previous midterm election cycles when a Republican president was in office:
“Historically, that is quite weak,” he said, pointing to past cycles under Republican presidents when Democrats were ahead by around 10 points at a comparable stage.The data analyst added that a lot of Democrats seem to think they can “spike that ball in the end zone,” but he warned that while the party might be on its way to a congressional majority, midterm success “might be a tougher road to hoe than normally.”
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On a similar note, a recent generic congressional ballot poll showed a two-point gain for Republicans:
Relatedly, a review of the congressional districts up for grabs next year shows Democrats are limited on the amount of damage they conceivably can do:
Democrats don’t need to win as many seats this time around [compared to 2018], netting just three seats rather than two dozen to claim a majority. But the hill to reach a comfortable majority like the 235 seats they held after the last blue wave has grown much steeper, driven by multiple rounds of gerrymandering — including ongoing redistricting in several states that threatens to erode the battlefield even further.
The result is that Democrats could post a bigger national swing than in 2018 and still end up with a slimmer majority than they had after that year. To flip 40 seats again would require them to win not just the kinds of highly competitive seats that fueled their House takeover last time but every district that Trump won by 12 points or less, a task that would not only defy political gravity but upend it.
While Republicans are contending with what some political observers have called, in so many words, the “Trump is not on the ballot” problem, Democrats are contending with a big problem of their own: the fact that Democrats and their deeply unpopular brand are on the ballot.
– Stacey Matthews has also written under the pseudonym “Sister Toldjah” and can be reached via X. –
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