NYC Mayoral Shock Poll: Cuomo Within Single Digits of Socialist Zohran Mamdani
According to Atlas Intel, Mamdani leads with 41 percent, Cuomo sits at 34 percent as an independent, and Sliwa trails with 24 percent.
A new Atlas Intel poll is shaking up the New York City mayoral race, showing former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa dramatically narrowing the gap with socialist Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani.
“Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is inching up on Zohran Mamdani with Republican Curtis Sliwa not far behind in a new poll released Saturday, with Cuomo climbing to within 7 percentage points of the socialist New York Assemblyman frontrunner in the mayor’s race.”
According to Atlas Intel, Mamdani leads with 41 percent, Cuomo sits at 34 percent as an independent, and Sliwa trails with 24 percent. The poll carries a ±3 margin of error, a much tighter margin than other major surveys that have shown Mamdani leading by double digits.
If true, that is tighter than the other polls are showing,
Atlas Poll
2025 New York City Mayoral Election
In the race for NYC mayor, Zohran Mamdani (D) leads Andrew Cuomo (I) by 6.6pp and Curtis Sliwa (R ) by 16.5pp. pic.twitter.com/wiCrRaYDpo
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 1, 2025
Cuomo, for his part, while campaigning this week in Brighton Beach, told supporters there is “no way” Sliwa can win, warning that a vote for the Republican would “make Zohran Mamdani win.”
Still, the Atlas result stands apart from the rest of the field. As the RealClearPolitics average shows, Mamdani’s average lead ranges from 10 to 25 points in polls from Fox News, Marist, Emerson, and Quinnipiac. The Atlas poll’s 7-point spread is the clear outlier, although it could reflect a genuine tightening among independents and moderate Democrats uneasy with Mamdani’s far-left platform.
To be fair, Atlas Intel has earned its reputation for accuracy. The firm was rated the most precise pollster of the 2024 election, correctly calling every state result within an average error of 0.3 percentage points.
POLLSTER ACCURACY
2024 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
National Popular VoteAtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of the US Presidential Election 2nd time in a row, both at the national level and in key swing states.
Please note: margins may change with the final vote count, but… pic.twitter.com/udKrBVFTkx
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 8, 2024
Even with that record, this poll diverges sharply from others and should be viewed with caution. If it proves right, it may signal that voters are beginning to second-guess a socialist takeover of City Hall.
Then again, New York City often gets exactly what it votes for.
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Comments
If this holds up, then Mamdani wins because Sliwa refused to pull out, and because NYC does not have “ranked choice” voting in general elections.
I continue to suspect that Sliwa was paid by a Mamdani supporter to stay in the race, or was promised something if Mamdani wins.
The political views of Sliwa and Mamdani diverge so sharply that I have a hard time thinking Sliwa would agree to stay in only as a spoiler. IMO, he’s simply too stubborn to drop out, but he might decide to before the weekend is over. We can hope.
Then again, New Yorkers, as has been wisely said, deserve who they vote for – whether with their ballots or with their feet. If they move south, they can assimilate and leave their crazy politics there when they leave.
.
It doesn’t matter how sharply they diverge, there is no question that Cuomo is the lesser evil. Cuomo won’t destroy the city. And it’s too late for him to drop out now, after all the early voters have already voted for him.
If Mamdani wins despite a majority voting against him, then it will show that New Yorkers don’t deserve him, but they’ll get him anyway, courtesy of Sliwa.
Oh. New Yorkers most certainly deserve mamdani. Enjoy getting what you deserve.
If a majority vote against him, how do they deserve him anyway?
“If Mamdani wins despite a majority voting against him, then it will show that New Yorkers don’t deserve him, but they’ll get him anyway, courtesy of Sliwa.”
No, it will show that New Yorkers do deserve him and they got him courtesy of the people who voted for him.
The majority of the voters in NYC are Democrat and Mamdani is the Democrat candidate. Duh.
Paula, again, if a majority votes against him, then how do they deserve him?
NYC is a Democrat city. Cuomo’s a Democrat. He even claims that he’s the “real Democrat”. Thus the Democrat votes will be split between two Democrats. NYC deserves whichever Democrat wins.
Paula, you’re playing word games. At this time it appears as if a majority will vote against Mamdani, and yet they will get him anyway, because some of them will stupidly vote for Sliwa.
1. There are more Democrats in NYC than Republicans
2. Therefore Democrats control who will be elected
3. Democrats are divided and will vote for two different candidates
4. But if Mamdani is elected, it’s the Republican’s fault
5. Sliwa should’ve dropped out, not Cuomo
6. The two major political parties in NYC are Democrats and Independents.
7. Republicans should bow out to make way for Independents.
No, they’ll get Mamdani because they voted for him in the primary and will vote for him again in the general election. If they don’t want Mamdani, don’t vote for him. It’s not Sliwa’s fault. But in the end I don’t really care what happens to NY.
Concise, it looks like a majority will not vote for him in the general. But they’ll get him anyway.
And most of those coming out to vote against Mamdani didn’t vote in the primary.
Milhouse, it is absolutely true that Mamdani would not be on the verge of victory if NY didn’t support him in the primary and didn’t support him in the general election. And in the general vaste constituencies do. Ask the brain dead young voters.
And regarding majorities, why this obsessive concern for you now? I realize the general election is not ranked choice voting but the primary was and, as I recall (correct if I’m wrong), you’re a supporter of ranked choice voting. Ranked choice voting could care less about majorities. Have you reconsidered?
Huh? It’s the only system that does care about majorities. A majority of those who voted in the Dem primary preferred him over other available candidates, so he won that fair and square. Most New Yorkers did not vote in the Dem primary, and are now waking up and voting in the general election to prevent him from winning. We don’t yet know whether they will succeed. But it seems likely that they will fail even though they are the majority. Which would not happen with preferential voting.
My point is simple: If a majority of voters are against him, then you can’t blame that majority, or the voters in general, if he wins. Rather blame the system that allows a large minority to defeat a divided opposition, and the opposition candidates who, despite knowing this, decided to stay in the race and split the majority’s vote.
Sometimes that’s justified. In the UK’s last election the Reform Party put Labour in power by splitting the conservative vote. Reform knew they were doing that, but they decided it was worth it, because the Tories needed taking down. They figured the country would survive five years of Labour, and the long-term result may be a badly needed reorganization on the right. But part of that calculation was that Labour was now led by the not-insane Starmer, not by the insane Corbyn. Five years of Starmer is bad; five years of Corbyn would be far worse, and would not be worth it.
If, by majority, one means more than half of all ballots at play in the election, your assertion is absolutely false and exposes your obsession with “majorities” now as grossly hypocritical, at the very least. Ranked choice voting wittles down the “majority “ until it bears no resemblance whatsoever to the majority of the electorate . And the ultimate winner is most definitely NOT their choice. You deserve Mamdani. Stop whining about majorities you don’t care about. (And my comment stands for itself in its entirety. Try to be a little courteous if you respond and just respond without excerpting part of it as a preface)
Given how many are dead because of Cuomo, is there really that much difference between Cuomo and Mamdani? Sliwa appears to be the only possibly decent candidate, and NY polling shows he’s not a serious contender. If NY votes to nuke itself, should the rest of America really stop them?
Yes, there is a huge difference between them. Cuomo can be trusted not to destroy the city. He won’t be much worse than Bloomberg, and better than de Blasio or Dinkins. Mamdani is an unmitigated disaster.
Sliwa is not and never was a serious contender, which is why once it became clear that the only way to defeat Mamdani was for all his opposition to vote for the same candidate he had a duty to drop out for the sake of defeating him. Staying in was actively helping Mamdani win.
Courtesy of YOU, Democrat.
People who supposedly join the left ‘in order to have any voice at all’ leave the right without a voice.
YOU decided that the right deserved no citywide voice. Because you decided better red than dead.
Well. now you’re getting that red.
I weep for the only sane borough, my home, Staten Island, that will suffer because of fools like you.
New York City has an influence greater than its boundaries. The residents of New York MAY deserve such a terrible person if they vote for him, but the rest of the country doesn’t.
That’s asinine and you know it’s untrue. You just like saying it as a smear.
Sliwa knows that there’s no difference, really, between Mohran Jihadi or The Greater Fredo being elected. Each is as bad as the other.
There certainly is a huge difference between the two. Cuomo is not nearly as bad as Mamdani. The city can survive Cuomo.
And no, I don’t know that my suspicion is untrue. I suspect it is true.
There’s little difference. You’re about to learn that simping for communists has consequences. Pobrecito.
Enjoy.
Or, there’s a simpler answer. It’s a vanity candidacy.
But it’s one that is likely to put Mamdani in office. Why would he not do the right thing and drop out? It’s reasonable to wonder whether someone is paying him to help Mamdani.
Did anybody pay Ross Perot to help Bill Clinton?
Ross Perot – another narcissist who let his ego destroy the very real possibility at the time of a viable third party.
Perot thought he could actually win. Also, there was no reason to believe he would draw more from Bush than from Clinton.
In this election, there’s the Mamdani vote and the anti-Mamdani vote. If there were only one anti-Mamdani candidate, the entire anti-Mamdani vote would go to him. Some might not vote at all, but none would go to Mamdani.
Oh, I know. Vanity. As in vain. As in he will not bow out to try and keep the communist muslim jihadist from winning.
Sliwa is a major party candidate, should the Republican Party surrender? Maybe it should just shut down for good. so granny-slayer can win?
It doesn’t matter whether he’s a major or a minor candidate. As soon as it was clear that he couldn’t win and Cuomo could, he had a duty to drop out. That he didn’t means that he is OK with Mamdani winning.
And yes, it is normal and expected for major parties to stay out of races they can’t win, in order to help independents who can win.
I don’t know about it being “his duty” to drop out. You assume Sliwa is as logical and rational a thinker as you, but most political candidates have a little bit more narcissism and sociopathy in them than the average hard working middle of the road American.
I agree, he should have bowed out. These are strange times, and even thinking rationally can’t guarantee a way out of a totally crazy situation like what we are seeing here.
Curtis Sliwa has no ‘duty’ to you, Democrat.
And he has done more for the city than you will ever do. Remember that as you soil his name with your filthy Democrat demands.
Here’s another truth for you– Cuomo isn’t going to get the NY GOP vote with or without Sliwa.
WE don’t forget covid. WE don’t forgive what he did.
If the city has to die because of you Democrats, then so be it.
WE can rebuild.
Without you.
That total BS
You’re total BS. The fact is that the anti-Mamdani vote is being split, and that is likely to result in his winning even though a majority don’t want him.
You’re awfully cavalier with that accusation, “counselor”. It’s soooooo weird how Sliwa doesn’t warrant the benefit of the doubt that you so readily give to leftist.
Cuomo is an ahole. I’ve never forgotten his statement that essentially said conservatives who are pro-life, pro-gun and anti-gay marriage “have no place in the State of New York.” Talk about acting like a king. However, I find myself rooting for him now,
Having written that I feel so unclean and I am going to go take a shower.
Politics certainly makes strange bedfellows.
Same boat. It’s like rooting for Vader over the emperor
I like the characterization.
I actually felt this way about Trump. I’ve never liked him. His personality disgusts me. I think he is a crude narcissistic bore. However, I hated how the democrats treated him since he was first elected, I also agree with some of his opinions and some of his actions. So, despite thinking I was a never Trumper I changed my mind and voted for him. There are things I wish he had not done or done differently but all in all I’ve been satisfied. Of course, it helps that I go well beyond loathing the democrats and their enablers.
He’s become my crude narcissist though. I wasn’t always that way.
I am starting to understand his style a lot more in term 2. Still nothing is perfect and there are def things I wish he could do more on (China, middle east, etc). But I’m also not privy to all of the info.
A bore? A narcissist ?
He’s 100% for America and Americans, he gives up his salary and pays out of his pocket in the hundreds of millions to MAGA
He never forgets the small man
One like you
(rolls eyes)
Trump is 100% for Trump. He always will be.
The presidential salary is 400K. Chump change for a billionaire. Not impressed.
Please He forgets plenty of men and women big and small when it is convenient for him to do so.
You drank the Kool-Aid. I hope it was tasty,
The question is who is Cuomo pulling from more. If I were Republican I would seriously consider holding my nose and voting Cuomo though. The state just doesn’t have any inclination of turning red. Many of the people with common sense have fled the state.
It’s not the state, it’s the city. And yes, Sliwa never had a chance of winning. Cuomo does. So anyone who doesn’t want Mamdani ought to vote for Cuomo, who is definitely the lesser evil.
Even more likely is that I could see myself in a poll sticking to either Cuomo or silwa but attempting to vote smarter in the actual election depending upon where my head is at on the day.
An alternative and possibly more accurate headline would be, “Pollsters hurry to kick kitty litter over their last four months of lies.”
Well creating controversy and crisis does build eyeballs.
Probably too little, too late. Kind of rooting for Mamdani. How else to rid the nation of these incompetent, extreme, privileged and performative lunatics like him and AOC that see America as bad and care little for those they speak for?
As JK Rowling said, they are so privileged they are too ignorant to be ignorant. Let them show it and drive more nails in their coffin.
They say accelerationists are those who just want to see the world burn.
I never understood that point of view, and probably never will,
However, watching the blue kingdoms burn is totally acceptable.
The only downside is that the damage perimeter is never properly limited.
Sometimes it takes a disaster for people to see the rot and reject what caused it to occur, in this case Obama progressivism. The country is ripe for it and Mamdani is a perfect vehicle to give it life beyond theory. If NYC chooses him, the rest of the country gets a chance to move further away.
I think you are not thinking this through. Socialism looks good to enough voters until they run out of other people’s money. That’s just enough time and media worship to elevate this country to the next USSR.
Looking at this from 30,000 feet and from far across the Hudson. Seeing it in action would have an effect with people not aware of how extreme Democrats are.
Again, think carefully. It doesn’t have to look good to everybody. It just has to look good to enough voters to win a majority. It will play very well with elites, the lower middle class, and the poor. If they are getting legally bribed, they will vote it and keep voting it. Socialism is very tought to fight off once it gets a foothold until it’s too late and the elites control everything while no one else owns or controls anything. Then, fighting it off tends to involve bloodshed and plenty of innocent casualties in the meantime.
Cuomo, the tyrannical criminal needs to drop out so that Sliwa can take the race.
Cuomo is a totally despicable lowlife. No self-respecting conservative could ever contemplate putting Cuomo BACK into government after what he actually did during COVID and the insane leftist policies he pushed even aside from his spectacular criminality.
Cuomo should be sitting in a prison cell, right now, for what he did during COVID. To put him back into government is to show AMerica that, not only is there no accountability for those who were given government power and abused it, but that all they have to do is wait a little bit and they can slime right back into government and return to power at the applause of those they acted against the first time around. That would be a precedent worse than having some loser commie-jihadi destroy NYC by the willful election of America-haters there.
And this is the real reason both are in. Neither can agree on who should drop out.
Silwa sees Cuomo as Mamdani lite
Cuomo sees Silwa as one of those despicable lowlifes beneath him and he’s trying to save NY from the unhinged left and right.
Let’s just give NYC back to the (feather) indians for a handful of beeds and call it a day.
Not quite such a straight line. The USA (NY Colony) stole it from the Brits who stole it from the Dutch. We’d have to give it back to the Brits who’d need to hand it to the Dutch who bought Manhattan Island for $25 ish worth of ‘trinkets/trade goods’ in 1626. Given that the hypothetical compound value of the $25 sale price from 1626 in a hypothetical alternative investment with reinvestment of dividends and/or interest is astronomically larger as a present value and especially considering the fact that the tribe they ‘bought’ it from was one of several transient visiting tribes and didn’t have ‘clear title’… the ‘Indians’ may have gotten the better bargain.
How about we give it back with a handful of trinkets. I think we’d be come out ahead.
While we’re at it let’s give CA and NM back to Mexico, Oregon and Washington back to England I think, and Chicago back to I don’t know -the French. Oh and return DC back to the swamp it once was.
I’m in a giving mood.
Why give it away? Let’s take a page from John Carpenter and turn Manhattan into a prison.
Isn’t it already. The idiot DA let out all the POC criminals anyways or doesn’t charge them and pig turd is another soft on crime communist. All we would need are sharks and we’d be all set, Oh we’d have to do something about the tunnel, bridges, and ferries,
“While we’re at it let’s give CA and NM back to Mexico”
I think we already have,
The difference is that Cuomo, if running alone, could win. Sliwa, even as the only non-Mamdani candidate, can’t win.
Everything you said about Cuomo is true, and yet he can win and Sliwa can’t, so it’s Sliwa that had a duty to drop out. And yet he didn’t.
I think you are oversimplifying it just a bit. Don’t you think an uncontested Democrat governors race is a pretty lousy way to abandon the ones left in the state?
Huh? Please explain.
The personification of the Red-Green alliance, a Madman nepo baby who at 34 years old has never held a real job in his life, is on the cusp of becoming Mayor of the City of New York. The mind reels.
Much like Obama, whose racist antiWhite hatred, despite being 1/2 white himself, nearly destroyed this Country and continue to pit black against white
Mots open season on whites. Clearances sale, kill as many as you like…
“All this has happened before, and all this will happen again.”
no wonder why I’m suffering from deja vu all over again. It’s a glitch in the matrix!
An interesting article about the muslin actors behind pig turd.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mamdanis-god-squad-clerics-activists-political-operatives-who-have-his-back
None of them are benign. If I could I’d round them all up and throw them all out – even the US citizens, Of course we can’t do that to the US citizens. What we could do is ban handing out visas to muslims and ban them from immigrating. Of course we won’t do that either. Thank you (undead) George Bush and your religion of pieces.
I don’t believe there are moderate muslims either. By my definition a moderate muslim will not get his hands dirty but will gladly support financially and otherwise the violent actions of his more radical comrades.
Escape from NY. Life is about to imitate art.
they dont allow ranked choice voting in THIS part of the process
rig the election for silwa and watch the sparks fly