Republican Tony Fabrizio and Democrat Bob Ward are the principals of the polling firm FabrizioWard. In the business for decades, they’ve developed a strong reputation for accuracy, which is perhaps why President Donald Trump has worked with them since 2016.
The pair released polling results from 15 House districts where Republican candidates won in 2024 by margins of 5 points or less and from 13 districts won by both a Democratic candidate and Trump on Monday. They believe these 28 districts will decide which party will control Congress after the 2026 midterm elections.
Fabrizio and Ward found that, among all registered voters in these key districts, the “generic Republican” currently trails the “generic Democrat” by 3 points. Among likely voters, the Republican lags by 7 points.
Their memo explains that the “healthcare premium tax credits for those who purchase health insurance for themselves” are set to expire at the end of this year.
However, if Congress votes to extend these tax credits, and both believe there is “broad bipartisan support” for such a measure, the political dynamic changes dramatically. According to Fabrizio and Ward, the “Republican candidate who supports that policy would lead the Democrat on the generic ballot by 6 points” among all registered voters, and by 4 points among likely voters.
On the other hand, if the Republican candidate “lets the premium tax credit expire,” the Democrat would likely win by 15 points.
The memo explains:
Unlike recent changes to Medicaid which do not go into effect until after the midterm elections, voters on the individual insurance marketplace, who voted for Trump by 4 points, will begin getting notices of significant premium hikes this fall. The incentive is to act on extending the tax credit soon. Republicans can position themselves ahead of Democrats in these districts by extending the premium tax credit and using the individual market as a landing spot for working-age adults on Medicaid.
This polling data — along with analysis of how congressional action could shape the outcome of the midterms — was featured in Tuesday morning’s edition of Politico Playbook. The authors wanted to remind readers:
This tax credit is a central part of the Affordable Care Act, which congressional Republicans have flirted with repealing and replacing for more than a decade now. It’s more than a little ironic that championing it could potentially turn around Republicans’ fortunes in the midterms. But given the historical headwinds of any incumbent party heading into the midterms, we imagine they’ll take whatever help they can get. Thanks, Obama.Even if the House does extend the credits, Democrats will almost surely provide the majority of votes.
It’s often said (and it’s backed by decades of history) that the party controlling the White House usually loses seats in the midterm elections. But Democrats’ current political standing is so fragile and their public support so fractured at the moment, it’s difficult to imagine that outcome right now.
But I don’t need to tell you how quickly things can change in politics. Public opinion can shift overnight, unexpected events can redefine an entire election cycle, and candidates once counted out can surge back into contention. A single debate performance, a major policy breakthrough, or an unforeseen crisis can completely upend the political landscape. History is full of surprises that remind us never to take anything for granted.
All I know is if the Democrats win back control of Congress next year, they will turn the last two years of Trump’s presidency into a political nightmare. With control of key congressional committees, the power to launch investigations, and the votes required to impeach him a third time, any remaining items on the Republicans’ agenda would grind to a halt, and Trump would face relentless scrutiny on everything from policy decisions to personal controversies. In short, the Democrats wouldn’t just act as a check on his power — they would aim to stall, frustrate, and weaken his presidency at every possible turn.
But this poll serves as a powerful reminder that, despite historical trends, a Republican defeat in the midterms is not inevitable. We are not powerless observers resigned to a predetermined outcome; instead, we hold the ability to shape what happens next. At this moment, the opposition is vulnerable, divided, and struggling to define a clear message. With focus and determination, victory remains within reach.
Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on X or LinkedIn.
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