New Poll: One Issue Could Tip the Scales in 2026 Midterm Elections
A Republican defeat in the midterms is not inevitable. … At this moment, the opposition is vulnerable, divided, and struggling to define a clear message.
Republican Tony Fabrizio and Democrat Bob Ward are the principals of the polling firm FabrizioWard. In the business for decades, they’ve developed a strong reputation for accuracy, which is perhaps why President Donald Trump has worked with them since 2016.
The pair released polling results from 15 House districts where Republican candidates won in 2024 by margins of 5 points or less and from 13 districts won by both a Democratic candidate and Trump on Monday. They believe these 28 districts will decide which party will control Congress after the 2026 midterm elections.
Fabrizio and Ward found that, among all registered voters in these key districts, the “generic Republican” currently trails the “generic Democrat” by 3 points. Among likely voters, the Republican lags by 7 points.
Their memo explains that the “healthcare premium tax credits for those who purchase health insurance for themselves” are set to expire at the end of this year.
However, if Congress votes to extend these tax credits, and both believe there is “broad bipartisan support” for such a measure, the political dynamic changes dramatically. According to Fabrizio and Ward, the “Republican candidate who supports that policy would lead the Democrat on the generic ballot by 6 points” among all registered voters, and by 4 points among likely voters.
On the other hand, if the Republican candidate “lets the premium tax credit expire,” the Democrat would likely win by 15 points.
The memo explains:
Unlike recent changes to Medicaid which do not go into effect until after the midterm elections, voters on the individual insurance marketplace, who voted for Trump by 4 points, will begin getting notices of significant premium hikes this fall. The incentive is to act on extending the tax credit soon. Republicans can position themselves ahead of Democrats in these districts by extending the premium tax credit and using the individual market as a landing spot for working-age adults on Medicaid.
This polling data — along with analysis of how congressional action could shape the outcome of the midterms — was featured in Tuesday morning’s edition of Politico Playbook. The authors wanted to remind readers:
This tax credit is a central part of the Affordable Care Act, which congressional Republicans have flirted with repealing and replacing for more than a decade now. It’s more than a little ironic that championing it could potentially turn around Republicans’ fortunes in the midterms. But given the historical headwinds of any incumbent party heading into the midterms, we imagine they’ll take whatever help they can get. Thanks, Obama.
Even if the House does extend the credits, Democrats will almost surely provide the majority of votes.
It’s often said (and it’s backed by decades of history) that the party controlling the White House usually loses seats in the midterm elections. But Democrats’ current political standing is so fragile and their public support so fractured at the moment, it’s difficult to imagine that outcome right now.
But I don’t need to tell you how quickly things can change in politics. Public opinion can shift overnight, unexpected events can redefine an entire election cycle, and candidates once counted out can surge back into contention. A single debate performance, a major policy breakthrough, or an unforeseen crisis can completely upend the political landscape. History is full of surprises that remind us never to take anything for granted.
All I know is if the Democrats win back control of Congress next year, they will turn the last two years of Trump’s presidency into a political nightmare. With control of key congressional committees, the power to launch investigations, and the votes required to impeach him a third time, any remaining items on the Republicans’ agenda would grind to a halt, and Trump would face relentless scrutiny on everything from policy decisions to personal controversies. In short, the Democrats wouldn’t just act as a check on his power — they would aim to stall, frustrate, and weaken his presidency at every possible turn.
But this poll serves as a powerful reminder that, despite historical trends, a Republican defeat in the midterms is not inevitable. We are not powerless observers resigned to a predetermined outcome; instead, we hold the ability to shape what happens next. At this moment, the opposition is vulnerable, divided, and struggling to define a clear message. With focus and determination, victory remains within reach.
Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on X or LinkedIn.
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the thugs destroy
the dad comes home and fixes it
then the thugs get back in charge b/c people are tired of the strictness that comes along with there being a dad
trump was able to please/gain the blc votes in sectors not imagined by the gop…
thanks to abbot and DeS sending the illegals to those blue cities
all of sudden the victim status of the blck community was in danger and that money flow and attention went to the browns
to carry upon THAT success is something that another gop will have to duplicate…good luck
Yeah, the tax credits will be a big issue. Thanks to Obamacare, Insurance costs skyrocketed. I pay 1700 per month just for me with zero pre-existing conditions. It’s absurd. Republicans didn’t cause this but they’ve done exactly nothing to fix it and voters will remember that if the tax credits disappear and they lose their insurance.
gop is directly responsible for the growth of socialism in the usa
it was always known and proven that the dems are leftwing and believe in government providing for the people
the gop went along over and over
even uder djt there are leftwing advances
not one dem voted for the bigbubill…NOT ONE
yet they got concessions in that bill
b/c the gop loves that uni party system
The GOP RINOs give invertebrates a bad name.
I pay 400 a month for Medicare with no dental or prescription coverage.
On the upside, everyone accepts it
if you paid into the system then its your money and not only is the gov not doing you any favors ( not saying you think they are) but they are then DENYING YOU DENTAL /PRESCRIPTION coverage
the government took an immoral stance and made it legal
just like they did with (outright) slavery
Traditional Medicare parts A and B don’t cover prescriptions or dental care other than dental surgery. You could choose to participate in Medicare part C (advantage) to get routine dental care and Medicare part D for prescription coverage.
I think the net risk is pointed at the Republicans. The mid-terms would be tough no matter what because of the history of mid-terms going against the president’s party, but it’s more than that. The big issues will be a) the economy, and b) health care.
It’s pretty clear that the economy won’t be booming. Best case is that it’ll be doing pretty well, but that “pretty well” won’t be lifting all boats as in decades past. I very strongly agree with the point in the post about that tax credit. Look, I am no fan of Obamacare, but the reality is that the Republicans have done little but shake their fists without coming up with a workable alternative.
They will not have a plan between now and the ’26 campaign season, so if they are smart they will swallow hard and kick the can down the road, and hope that the economy hangs in there and that the “progressives” do something(s) really stupid, with “really stupid” not being some wingnut hobby horse but something that breaks through and gets noticed.
If the Republicans were REALLY SMART (which they won’t be), they’d come up with an immigration fix that would offer legalization to the (cough-cough) “undocumented” worker bees who, aside from not being legal, have otherwise (to quote Bill Clinton, who everyone here hates) “worked hard and played by the rules.”
That would require real imagination, and these days imagination is in short supply.
the workable plan against obamcare is the free market
and the demand that the dems pay directly for those they claim they want to help
That’s an ideology, one that I tend strongly to agree with, but it is not a plan and it is not going to go into effect between now and November ’26, Mr. Goldwater.
capitalism is THE plan
thats what maga is suppose to be all about
“its not going into effect”>>>agree
and thats b/c the gop says ..its not a plan
The Obamacare tax credit is just the life-and-death issue du jour. There will be 10 more between now and the election.
It’s the one issue that isn’t going away. When people have to drop their insurance because it’s more expensive than their rent or mortgage, it’s not just some esoteric campaign issue and the voters aren’t going to give a shit why it’s Obama and the democrat’s fault primarily.
I doubt many people base their voting decision on tax credits.
Don’t believe it? Then get this plan passed.
1. End Obama care.
2. End tax breaks for health Insurance.
From that baseline of ‘nobody gets nothing in private market’ enact the following:
1. Everyone can have and contribute to an HSA
2. Everyone can choose to buy high deductible catastrophic care health IN policies
3. Restore tax deduction for health IN but only to individuals (not employers) and only up to $3K per taxpayer.
4. Require IN policy pricing to reflect the actual risk profile of the person buying the policy. Young and healthy pay less, older and sicker pay more. All medical expenses that are not universally applicable you get a rider. So ER, trauma surgery, annual check up/physical, RX, dental exam/cleaning, eye exam, RX lens (not the designer frames) are covered.
5. Transparent pricing for DR and hospitals. So you can see a price for X and shop around to get a better deal. No more innovative billing schemes from hospitals.
6. Potential govt subsidies to assist those with super expensive conditions.
The unions and the feminists would go berserk. As would everyone employed by a big company with great benefits. So would the hospital industry lobby. Health care IN market is hugely distorted due to tax policy. Same for healthcare delivery. There’s a big divide between those who work for big Corp or gov’t and have pretty solid tax free health IN and those who are employed by smaller companies, small business, partnerships, Indy contractors without them. The largest reasons are tax breaks and lack of transparency.
“However, if Congress votes to extend these tax credits, and both believe there is “broad bipartisan support” for such a measure, the political dynamic changes dramatically.”
And once you point this out to the Democrats, which you just did, the broad bipartisan support vanishes. Because it is more important to screw Trump than not to screw their constituents.
Time to redistrict in Texas, and take no prisoners if the D’s want.to play games like walking out, etc.
“It’s the economy stupid”
As true today as when Bill Clinton was running.
For better or worst the sooner the trade negotiations complete allowing for an economic burst the better.
Hopefully, Dem prosecutions will proceed at a rapid rate.
This analysis ignores two relevant facts.
1. The Epstein FUBAR has enormous downside potential.
2. Republicans are the all time champions of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
So, Democrats tell us that, if Republicans do what Democrats want they’ll get to retain control.
Thanks for that advice, leftists.
We ALWAYS seem to be one issue away from the house flipping to Democrat control 🙄😂
Dunno but maybe in more sane, rational times you could make that argument but I think today’s Democrats are so extreme and utterly unhinged that the only people who will be turning out for them will be their very small militant extremist base.
Also the media had away even as recent as 2019/2020 but have done themselves no favours and have worked themselves in to irrelevancy.