June Jobs Report: Positive Revisions, Federal Govt Continues to Lose Jobs
Positive revisions for once!!! I am shocked.
Good and bad in the June jobs report.
You all know I love revisions. Guess what. We have positive revisions for once. I am not kidding:
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised up by 11,000, from +147,000 to +158,000, and the change for May was revised up by 5,000, from +139,000 to +144,000. With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 16,000 higher than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)
That’s YUGE in my opinion.
Now we get into the wishy washy area.
Nonfarm payroll employment went up by 147,000 in June. That sounds good, right?
Well, government employment went up at the state and local level while federal government jobs went down:
Government employment rose by 73,000 in June. Employment in state government increased by 47,000, largely in education (+40,000). Employment in local government education continued to trend up (+23,000). Job losses continued in federal government (-7,000), where employment is down by 69,000 since reaching a recent peak in January. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)
State and local government jobs make up almost half of the jobs in the June report.
I love that the federal government continues to lose jobs but state and local government jobs are still government jobs.
Manufacturing employment declined again, while other private sectors remained relatively stagnant. That’s not good.
It’s not shocking, though, since the unemployment rate (4.1%) and number of unemployed people (7.0 million) barely changed in June:
In June, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 190,000 to 1.6 million, largely offsetting a decrease in the prior month. The long-term unemployed accounted for 23.3 percent of all unemployed people. (See table A-12.)
The labor force participation rate changed little at 62.3 percent in June, and the employment population ratio held at 59.7 percent. (See table A-1.)
The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 million, changed little in June.
These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-8.)
The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job was essentially unchanged at 6.0 million in June. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)
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Comments
If the Federal Government continues to lose jobs, then how will lazy and crooked people support their families.
Asked and answered, counselor. They get state jobs.
I have to laugh: one of Arizona’s “mostly timeserver” US representatives “retired” this cycle to become a Maricopa County supervisor.
Hmmm…. Who is that? I know about Andy Biggs running for Governor.
The Payroll employment data are unreliable because of revisions. My guess is that down the line those revisions will be revised down. I say that because the household data, which shows a job gain of about 93,000, is far more reliable, and it is never revised. At some point, the payroll data will have to line up with the household data which is why I think the payroll data will be revised down. (The household data can be found in Table A1 of BLS’ Employment Situation, in line titled “Employed.”)
(Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)
I read a lengthy twitter thread recently explaining that just about every person that has been ‘fired’ or ‘laid-off’ by the FedGov in the last 6-months is in fact still getting paid. This is particularly remarkable because almost every single one of these people was/is a ‘probationary’ employee. And yet, even though they were plainly under probationary status, several district court judges have barred their termination. So, they’re simply sitting at home getting paid. I understand there are more than 25K of these ‘fired’ employees.
In any event, I agree. This isn’t a bad jobs report. But, it’s not good, or at least not great, either.
I believe the folks who took the DOGE buy outs are on the payroll till the end of the FY. Sooner or later the Federal workforce will be trimmed back. Each Dept/Agency is doing a review on mission and personnel requirements to present to the WH which I believe is due next summer. Once some of these obstructionist District Judge rulings are dispensed with over the next year the ax will swing. The Trump Admin 2.0 has done a good job in laying the groundwork and setting in motion planned, phased responses to the anticipated d/prog resistance tactics.
Federal employment loses jobs.
Hearing that makes he happy.
Federal government loses jobs but those people just switch over to state and local ones. The cockroach’s are never gone