CPI Increases at 2.7% Annual Rate in June, Highest in Four Months
Eggs continue to drop, but gas and electricity slightly ticked up in June.
I said we would see tariff-related changes to prices in June and…here we are.
The June 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) appears unfavorable on the surface, but you know me. You also need to consider individual prices, especially for items we purchase regularly.
However, when combined, all groups except transportation saw an increase in prices (emphasis mine):
The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in June and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The energy index rose 0.9 percent in June as the gasoline index increased 1.0 percent over the month. The index for food increased 0.3 percent as the index for food at home rose 0.3 percent and the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent in June.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in June, following a 0.1-percent increase in May. Indexes that increased over the month include household furnishings and operations, medical care, recreation, apparel, and personal care. The indexes for used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and airline fares were among the major indexes that decreased in June.
The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending June, after rising 2.4 percent over the 12 months ending May. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.9 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 0.8 percent for the 12 months ending June. The food index increased 3.0 percent over the last year.
Interestingly, the transportation group saw a decrease in June since it’s summer. Summer is travel season! I’ve already been to Alaska and New York City. You’ll notice in my breakdown that “lodging away from home” saw another decrease in prices.
Then again, I wonder if people aren’t traveling, causing airlines and hotels to slash prices to entice people to get out and about.
I didn’t expect prices to skyrocket, and I still don’t. It’ll likely be gradual.
Next month, I’ll take a closer look at items we buy for back to school, as many of those items are tariff-sensitive, such as apparel.
Anyway, here is my breakdown of individual prices.
Food:
- Food at home: +2.4% in 12 months, +0.3% in a month
- Cereals and cereal products: -0.5% in 12 months, -1.1% in a month
- Flour: +1.7% in 12 months, -1.2% in a month
- Bread: -0.2% in 12 months, +0.1% in a month
- Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs: +5.6% in 12 months, -0.1% in a month
- Meats (all): +5.2% in 12 months, +1.0% in a month
- Ground beef: +10.3% in 12 months, +1.5% in a month
- Fresh & frozen chicken parts: +4.7% in 12 months, +1.3% in a month
- Eggs: +27.3% in 12 months, -7.4% in a month
- Milk: +2.1% in 12 months, -0.7% in a month
- Fruits & veggies: +0.7% in 12 months, +0.9% in a month
- Apples: +7.2% in 12 months, 0.0% in a month
- Bananas: +2.2% in 12 months, -0.9% in a month
- Pop: +3.1% in 12 months, +1.7% in a month
- Coffee: +13.4% in 12 months, +2.2% in a month
- Sugar: +3.1% in 12 months, -0.5% in a month
- Butter: -0.4% in 12 months, -0.4% in a month
Energy:
- Gasoline (all types): -8.3% in 12 months, +1.0% in a month
- Gasoline (regular): -8.7% in 12 months, +1.0% in a month
- Electricity: +5.8% in 12 months, +1.0% in a month
- Utility (piped) gas service: +14.2% in 12 months, +0.5% in a month
Medicine:
- Prescription drugs: +1.2% in 12 months, +0.4% in a month
- Nonprescription drugs: -1.7% in 12 months, -1.0% in a month
- Health insurance: +3.4% in 12 months, +0.6% in a month
Shelter:
- Shelter (overall): +3.8% in 12 months, +0.2% in a month
- Rent of primary residence: +3.8% in 12 months, +0.2% in a month
- Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence: +4.2% in 12 months, +0.3% in a month
- Lodging away from home: -2.5% in 12 months, -2.9% in a month
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Comments
That’s why they use leading indicators of inflation.
The fundamental cause of inflation has not been addressed, so I imagine we are seeing “the best that can be expected under the circumstances.”
Not that government statistics are likely to be accurate, anyway, but most prudent adults in the working class already are having to keep quite a close eye on how inflation is affecting their personal spending.
prices go up and down its normal
however when the government ,from either side gets involved ,it takes away choice and is replaced by fiat
not good
keep your hands off my banana
if you really want tosee/investigate a mess that our friendly rfkjr fda and government at large are creating
go take a look at what CT and other states are doing by limiting what drugs the population can have so that they,,THE GOVERNMENT, can keep prices “lower” so that they can show how great it is that the government is in charge
what a fn messsssss!!! socialism is not your friend
From a very short and superficial AI inquiry:
The June 2025 increase is lower than the historical average: 2.7 < 3.29 percent (based on data from 1914 to 1925)
I assume you mean, for the June of each year…
I asked for data from the same historical period. But feel free to verify.
I wasn’t challenging your data, just trying to understand what exactly was measured.
(First off, assuming you meant 2014 to 2025, not 1914 to 1925.)
Was it “this is the smallest June increase on record for the past ten years,” or “this June’s inflation rate was smaller than the average annual inflation rate for any of the past ten years?”
In response to “Was this June’s inflation rate smaller than the average annual inflation rate for any of the past ten years?” This is what google’s AI wrote:
Yes, this June’s inflation rate of 2.7% was lower than the average annual inflation rate for several of the past ten years. For example, the average annual inflation rate for the years 2012-2021 was 1.88%. Additionally, the average inflation rate between 1960 and 2021 was 3.69%. The June 2025 rate of 2.7% is also above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%
This is sort of hilarious. The question I posed turned out to be ambiguously worded (how rookie of me!). I meant “lower than every past year,” not “lower than at least one past year.” The AI assumed the latter and answered “yes, several of them.”
So some years were better than this June, and some years were worse, but the average of all of them was worse than this June. Thanks.
“Eggs continue to drop”
At least the imagery is delightful.
yeah
saw that in our 5th grade class of
how are babies born
SMH. I was going for Stooges, you went straight to Kinsey.
kinsey may have been a stooge
Meh. The tariffs don’t seem to be making an impact on rising prices….yet. This could certainly change going forward once the negotiating phases end and final tariff levels are set. So far though exporters to USA seem to be absorbing the tariff costs v passing them on to consumers, particularly Japanese auto makers. There’s also high auto inventory levels of pre-tariff auto imports so any tariff impacts on autos will be delayed.
Fuel and energy are the biggest factors on our economy b/c they impact everyone. On farms the ploughing, planting, harvesting, transport to processing/canning all use fuel. The processor uses energy to run the factory, the workers use fuel to get there. Then the product gets transported by train/trucks using more fuel to get to the grocery. Those big AC units in grocery stores keeping them cold use plenty of energy.
just saw trump answering questions with the beautiful fl by his side
and he really has a good zinger on both jerome powell and a reporter asking if djt would reappoint jp
correction:
the beautiful KL by his side
What is eating me on this is not inflation at a stratospheric height of 2.7%, but that all the doomsayers weren’t whining when it was four times that during the Biden era-it was transitory.
Correct. It’s all political, and the number of people who continue to be influenced by the MSM never ceases to amaze. One look at the CPI chart and everyone should shrug at 2.7% increase in inflation.
Tariffs really having basically no impact at this point. Durable goods inflation was up 0.6% year over year. The inflation is really in services, which tariffs don’t really touch, and which is much harder to wring out of the economy. Corporate profits skyrocketed since the pandemic, so corporations have lots of room to eat the impact of any tariffs, and most will do so.
No, there will be no gradual increase in inflation due to tariffs. All of the things the original poster listed are normal fluctuations within the price level for those respective products/services.
Tariffs’ impact on overall prices are not negligible, but they are also not significant. What the tariff mongers were mostly predicting was inflationary Armageddon and a massive incoming recession. They have been proven wrong on both points. But I don’t expect many to issue mea culpas, instead they will just say tariffs will increase prices “gradually.” Of course, gradual increases in prices can be attributable to any number of factors. My preferred is that as Americans’ wages increase – and thus disposable income increases – some products/services with high demand will see an uptick in prices and others with low demand will see a decrease in prices. I expect in the coming months, demand for new cars will see an increase in prices.
But that’s just my estimation.