There has been a lot of talk over the last couple of weeks about actions Texas and California may take in terms of redrawing congressional district maps, which would have the net effect of adding more House seats for Republicans in Texas and Democrats in California.
Triggered by President Donald Trump saying he wants Texas and possibly a few other states to look into taking that action sooner rather than later, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) responded by tweeting, “two can play this game,” as though Golden State Democrats haven’t done enough over the last several decades already to shut Republicans out of having a say in anything.
As Legal Insurrection reported, it’s an idea that even some California Democrats are frowning upon, perhaps with the realization in mind that an independent redistricting commission actually handles those matters, and that trying to temporarily change the system California voters approved in 2008 will be a very tall order.
In the meantime, however, it’s more Democrats than Republicans who are having problems connecting with voters ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, as CNN data analyst Harry Enten shared during a “News Central” segment earlier this week, explaining in so many words how Democrats hating Trump was not getting the job done:
Look, the bottom line is this. Democrats are behind their 2006 and 2018 paces when it comes to the generic congressional ballot. What are we talking about here?All right, the Democrats versus the Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, the margins. Look at where we are now. Democrats are ahead, but by just two points. Look at where Democrats were already ahead by in 2017. They were behind by seven points.How about 2005 on the generic congressional ballot? Behind — excuse me, ahead by seven points, ahead by seven points, and now they’re only ahead by two points? Their lead is less than half, less than half of where it was in either 2017 or 2005 in July of those years, the year before the midterm election.
When co-host John Berman asked Enten what things looked like for Democrats from a race-by-race perspective, Enten revealed that it was another area where Democrats were lacking, and where Republicans had more pick-up opportunities:
Well, last time around [2017], look at that. Democrats were ahead by 33 seats. How about in 2005? Democrats were ahead by seven seats. What’s going on right now? It’s actually Republicans.Actually, Republicans with more net pick-up chances at plus 12, according to the Cook Political Report, when you add in the likelihoods, the [leans], and the toss-up races.So, it’s not just on the generic ballot where Democrats are behind their 2017 and 2005 pace. It’s actually when it comes seat by seat, you see that at least at this particular point, Republicans actually have more net pick-up opportunities. This doesn’t look anything like those wave elections back in 2006 or 2018.[…]At this particular point, this election cycle looks a lot more like 2024 than it does then either 2018 or 2006. And so, of course, Republicans actually held onto the House back in 2024. Will it happen this time around? We’ll just have to wait and see.But for anyone who’s writing the Republican House’s political obituaries, hold the phone. This is a reality check. Republicans are still very much in the game.
Watch:
Bottom line: The “Orange Man Bad” strategy being employed by Democrats isn’t helping them win over enough supposedly disaffected voters ahead of the midterms. While we, of course, still have a long way to go between now and November 2026, with Democrats being pushed by their supporters to be more aggressive against Trump to the point they’d be willing to shed blood, it doesn’t look like they’ll be able to do much, if any, course correcting anytime soon.
– Stacey Matthews has also written under the pseudonym “Sister Toldjah” and can be reached via X.-
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