CNN Data Analyst: Dems Way Off Track Ahead of Midterms, GOP Has More Pick-up Opportunities
“At this particular point, this election cycle looks a lot more like 2024 than it does then either 2018 or 2006. And so, of course, Republicans actually held onto the House back in 2024. Will it happen this time around? We’ll just have to wait and see.”
There has been a lot of talk over the last couple of weeks about actions Texas and California may take in terms of redrawing congressional district maps, which would have the net effect of adding more House seats for Republicans in Texas and Democrats in California.
Triggered by President Donald Trump saying he wants Texas and possibly a few other states to look into taking that action sooner rather than later, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) responded by tweeting, “two can play this game,” as though Golden State Democrats haven’t done enough over the last several decades already to shut Republicans out of having a say in anything.
As Legal Insurrection reported, it’s an idea that even some California Democrats are frowning upon, perhaps with the realization in mind that an independent redistricting commission actually handles those matters, and that trying to temporarily change the system California voters approved in 2008 will be a very tall order.
In the meantime, however, it’s more Democrats than Republicans who are having problems connecting with voters ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, as CNN data analyst Harry Enten shared during a “News Central” segment earlier this week, explaining in so many words how Democrats hating Trump was not getting the job done:
Look, the bottom line is this. Democrats are behind their 2006 and 2018 paces when it comes to the generic congressional ballot. What are we talking about here?
All right, the Democrats versus the Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, the margins. Look at where we are now. Democrats are ahead, but by just two points. Look at where Democrats were already ahead by in 2017. They were behind by seven points.
How about 2005 on the generic congressional ballot? Behind — excuse me, ahead by seven points, ahead by seven points, and now they’re only ahead by two points? Their lead is less than half, less than half of where it was in either 2017 or 2005 in July of those years, the year before the midterm election.
When co-host John Berman asked Enten what things looked like for Democrats from a race-by-race perspective, Enten revealed that it was another area where Democrats were lacking, and where Republicans had more pick-up opportunities:
Well, last time around [2017], look at that. Democrats were ahead by 33 seats. How about in 2005? Democrats were ahead by seven seats. What’s going on right now? It’s actually Republicans.
Actually, Republicans with more net pick-up chances at plus 12, according to the Cook Political Report, when you add in the likelihoods, the [leans], and the toss-up races.
So, it’s not just on the generic ballot where Democrats are behind their 2017 and 2005 pace. It’s actually when it comes seat by seat, you see that at least at this particular point, Republicans actually have more net pick-up opportunities. This doesn’t look anything like those wave elections back in 2006 or 2018.
[…]
At this particular point, this election cycle looks a lot more like 2024 than it does then either 2018 or 2006. And so, of course, Republicans actually held onto the House back in 2024. Will it happen this time around? We’ll just have to wait and see.
But for anyone who’s writing the Republican House’s political obituaries, hold the phone. This is a reality check. Republicans are still very much in the game.
Watch:
Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle.
Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles.
Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at this pt. pic.twitter.com/CRgXukTjz6
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 16, 2025
Bottom line: The “Orange Man Bad” strategy being employed by Democrats isn’t helping them win over enough supposedly disaffected voters ahead of the midterms. While we, of course, still have a long way to go between now and November 2026, with Democrats being pushed by their supporters to be more aggressive against Trump to the point they’d be willing to shed blood, it doesn’t look like they’ll be able to do much, if any, course correcting anytime soon.
– Stacey Matthews has also written under the pseudonym “Sister Toldjah” and can be reached via X.-
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Comments
“Dems way off track”
Way off track from traditional values, but on track for new far left values of:
socialism
communism
ruining the country
Newsome sure isn’t way off track driving the final stake through the heart of California
Never underestimate the ability of republicans to seize defeat from the hands of victory.
Trump’s “I don’t want your support any more” meltdown (in response to his supporters who called him out on his Epstein cover-up) is a prime example.
To judge by LI’s coverage, LI’s contributors are hoping that if they ignore that desperate screed, it will just go away.
Instead, we should yammer on about it, to the exclusion of all else, like a big, fat concern troll. Then perhaps we can enjoy a complete cessation of all the other winning Trump is currently delivering to us while we hamstring him with it.
It’s a marvelous political strategy for MAGAs. I wonder why no one with a functioning brain has proposed it previously.
You’re better off ignoring it. They thrive on the oxygen of attention.
Even if I go away, the furor over Trump’s Epstein cover-up won’t.
Moonmouth/JR: the furor is ALREADY over. True conservatives (not you) understand that this is just more stray voltage from dummies like you.
I notice you had nothing to say about Epstein during the “reign of error” of FJB. I wonder why that is, Junior/Moonhammed.
We are now focusing on real issues like the corruption of the Obama and Biden regimes. I’m hoping we see public executions for some of the worst offenders.
Go convert some unwashed natives to whatever brand of fake Christianity you practice.
Enjoy the upticks that your post will receive in this echo chamber. Meanwhile, Trump is proving the Dems’ “Orange Man Bad” mantra every time he lashes out at his supporters who want to know why he continues to cover up for Epstein’s clients.
You already posted this Schiff previously.
At least come up with something original, Moonbat.
If little Donnie Trump doesn’t want us to yammer on about this shite then perhaps little Donnie Trump should control his temper tantrums and not say such shite. But of course, Trump can’t do that. He’s got to shoot off his mouth and tell his supporters he doesn’t want their support because (Horrors!) they don’t agree with him.
It’s a marvelous political strategy. Telling your supporters and the ones that vote for him that he doesn’t need them any more. I wonder why no one with a functioning brain has proposed it previously.
💯
Shut up, you idiot.
Go start your own blog so we can ignore you there.
“You already posted this … come up with something original,”
No need to provide you with distractions from Trump’s cover-up of Epstein’s pedo/extortion ring. LI already has that covered.
You post so much about Epstein that one might rightly wonder whether your name is to be found somewhere in the files.
Are you a pedo, Moonbat?
You’ve convinced me. I won’t vote for Trump in the next presidential election.
My point was hijacked.
By dumb assess feeding the troll attention 🙄😂
Not by those of us beating Moonhammed/JR up, which he richly deserves.
Moonhammed/JR hijacked the post.
That’s p/o their game.
Both parties have an equal opportunity to blow it
I wonder how much blood was shed at CNN delivering that report?
Not enough.
It’s really a case of who Democrats are appealing to? Right now that is only the hardest of the HARD left extremists with no appeal to moderates or anyone else who’s not insane but otherwise could be pursuaded to vote against OMB.
Yep. Growing recognition of how extreme the d/prog have become based on what they publicly support. Greater acceptance of ‘walk away’ within demographic groups who’ve traditionally offered political support to d/prog but realize how much they are taken for granted. Those build on the ‘walk aways’ that began ’16 and grew through ’24. Chicago residents frustration with city sanctuary policies is a microcosm of this dynamic.
One thing that you have to account for in how bad it is for Democrats, they are facing LESS opposition voters in many of their districts due to the great sorting of America.
They SHOULD be holding strong until their asses get handed to them in the census. I hope Republicans are ahead of this because it MUST happen on time… Census in 2030- get the change of electoral college and house seats DONE will ahead of 2032. If they do this successfully 2032 will be a bloodbath for Democrats.
We don’t trust the census, or the gov that runs it.
We’re not going to trust it in 2030, either. Regardless of how much winning occurs between now and then.
Couple of other things to consider.
1) Being in the minority will make fundraising more difficult.
2) The POTUS being a Republican will help Republicans fundraise
3) The 2030 census is already expected to move House seats/electoral votes from blue states to red states so the Democrats are already looking for a limited time to be competitive for control of the House for at least one decade.
4) Concerning point 3 that was before President Trump closed the border and started deportations and that could make the switch from blue states to red states even more problematic for Democrats.
The hard appeal to the rabid far left base is all about fundraising. However, with ActBlue under investigation for illegal fundraising and NGO’s cutoff, where are demonrats supposed to raise money? Without compromising small donors with 1,000’s of donations they never made, how are the poor leftists supposed to raise money legally? Think of the children! Please think of the children!!
The children are all wearing keffiyehs or breast binders. Thinking of them is depressing.
Or both. The boys at least. Or is it the girls? What day is it anyway!
I am frankly astonished, and happy. Trump barely won: he won only the swing states and red states and did not flip a single blue state, against the worst major party ticket in US history. The incumbent usually loses seats in the midterms. Republicans have far more Senate seats at risk than Dems in 2026, something like 10 more seats.
And STILL Dems aren’t gaining!? Trump is doing FANTASTIC.
Dems are losing because they aren’t appealing to anyone else other than their deranged hard leftist supporters.
They did this all on their own and deserve the irrelevancy that has arrived.
What are you calling ‘blue states’? If they are ones he won in 2016 are they no longer blue?