After numerous delays and considerable drama, Senate Republicans succeeded in advancing President Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” on Saturday night by a narrow 51–49 margin. This critical procedural vote now brings the legislation to the Senate floor for full debate.
All Senate Democrats voted against advancing the measure. With the exception of Sens. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Rand Paul (R-KY), every Republican senator voted in favor of moving it forward.
The bad news is that Tillis announced on Saturday afternoon he would vote no on the final bill. This poses a serious problem, as the bill needs at least 51 votes to pass. Before Tillis’s announcement, GOP Sens. Paul and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin had already declared their opposition.
With these three defections, Republicans are now at the limit of how many votes they can afford to lose — if they lose even one more, the bill will fail. This razor-thin margin gives other GOP senators significant leverage to demand concessions or secure special provisions for their own states.
In a statement, Tillis claimed that passage of the measure:
[W]ould result in tens of billions of dollars in lost funding for North Carolina, including our hospitals and rural communities. This will force the state to make painful decisions like eliminating Medicaid coverage for hundreds of thousands in the expansion population, and even reducing critical services for those in the traditional Medicaid population.
The “expansion population” refers to adults with incomes up to 138% of the federal poverty level who became eligible for Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, according to health policy research site KFF. Since its inception in 2014, 41 states (including the District of Columbia) have adopted and implemented this program.
Needless to say, Trump was not pleased with Tillis’s grandstanding. In a post on Truth Social, he wrote:
“Looks like Senator Thom Tillis, as usual, wants to tell the Nation that he’s giving them a 68% Tax Increase, as opposed to the Big Beautiful Bill – Biggest Tax Cut in American History! Thom Tillis is making a BIG MISTAKE for America, and the Wonderful People of North Carolina!”
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt made Trump’s position clear in a social media post: “Trump is committed to keeping his promises, and failure to pass this bill would be the ultimate betrayal.”
Although Sen. Susan Collins of Maine voted to advance the bill, she has indicated that she wants to see certain changes before she is willing to support its final passage. Collins told Fox News, “If the bill is not further changed, I will be leaning against the bill, but I do believe this procedural vote to get on the bill so that people can offer amendments and debate it is appropriate.”
On a more positive note, Sen. Josh Hawley who had previously withheld his support over the cuts to Medicaid in his state now supports the bill.
On Saturday afternoon, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) announced that once the Republicans voted to advance the legislation, he would force the Senate clerk to read the entire 940-page bill on the Senate floor before debate could begin, an exercise that would delay the process by about 12 hours. Although it’s petty, Sen. Johnson forced the clerks to read former President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID bill aloud on the Senate floor in March 2021.
Much of this drama is business as usual in the final stages of passing legislation in Congress, which is why the process is often compared to watching “sausage being made.” It is messy, contentious, and unpredictable. In the end, it falls to leadership to negotiate with holdouts and make compromises and concessions to secure enough votes to pass the bill.
Because this bill represents Trump’s entire domestic agenda, he has been and will continue to exert tremendous pressure on the holdouts. Trump has remained in Washington this weekend to help Senate Majority Leader John Thune advance this legislation.
A Senate vote on the final bill could come as early as Monday. And then the measure heads back to the House where even more negotiations will take place.
On Friday, as progress on the bill appeared to be stalling, Trump signaled some flexibility on the July 4 deadline. During a White House press conference, he said, “It’s important. It’s not the end-all. But we’d like to get it done in that time, if possible.”
As chaotic as this process is, I believe it will ultimately pass.
Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on LinkedIn or X.
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