Yes, it’s super early to be thinking about the 2028 presidential election. Be that as it may, polling in the race has already begun.
New polling of the GOP presidential primary from the Emerson College Polling Center shows Vice President J.D. Vance dominating the Republican field with 46% support, a 34-point lead over his closest rival, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who stands at 12%. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis follows with 9%, while Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. registers at 5%.
I was genuinely surprised by the size of Vance’s lead over Rubio and DeSantis—both of whom bring deep experience and broad appeal to key segments of the Republican base, including national security hawks, suburban moderates, and Sun Belt conservatives.
But I suppose it’s only natural for a sitting vice president to lead the pack, particularly one who has performed so admirably on both the national and international stages since taking office. Vance’s deep loyalty to President Donald Trump and the MAGA agenda resonates strongly with voters determined to ensure that the movement continues beyond Trump’s time in the White House.
Additionally, Vance’s personal story strikes a chord with many voters, especially those in Rust Belt and Appalachian communities who feel overlooked by elite politicians. Raised in a poor, working-class, and often dysfunctional family in Ohio, he pulled himself up by his bootstraps. After serving in the military, Vance worked his way through Yale Law School, found success in business, and ultimately rose to become the vice president of the United States. It’s a quintessential American story—one of grit, perseverance, and self-reliance.
Emerson’s poll of the 2028 Democratic presidential primary shows no clear winner. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leads the field with support of 16%, followed by former Vice President Kamala Harris at 13%, California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 12%, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at 7%, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 7%, and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 5%.
The most striking takeaway from this survey is that Harris—who maintained a clear lead over other Democrats in the months following the election—has lost her advantage and now trails behind Buttigieg.
Another notable finding: none of the candidates have managed to generate more than lukewarm support.
These dismal results reflect the chaos and confusion that have engulfed the Democratic Party since the election. While some of the prospective candidates, such as Newsom and Buttigieg, have already begun jockeying for position and influence, no individual has managed to connect with the public in a meaningful way. With 16% being the highest level of support reached by any one candidate, the field remains fragmented, uninspired, and far from producing a unifying figure who can lead the party forward.
It will likely remain this way unless and until the Democratic Party can get its act together. Right now, it is adrift—sorely lacking a cohesive message, a compelling vision, or any real sense of direction. The party is fractured, its leading figures are either hesitant or uninspiring, and its base is left wondering what, exactly, the Democrats stand for beyond opposing Donald Trump.
Resistance to Trump may have been enough to mobilize voters in past cycles, but it’s not a sustainable campaign strategy. What the party needs now is a clear, forward-looking platform: a set of principles and objectives that its leaders and voters can rally around. Without that unifying message, the internal chaos and public apathy will only deepen.
And time is running out. As crazy as it sounds, the 2028 presidential primaries begin in just 18 months. Eight months have passed since the election, and the party is just as rudderless and divided as it was in November — no closer to a solution, and no clearer on what it actually stands for. If Democrats don’t find their footing soon, they risk heading into the next election not as a party ready to lead, but as one still searching for a reason to exist.
Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on LinkedIn or X.
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