Although ICE raids grab headlines, a quieter Trump-era tactic, encouraging illegal immigrants to leave voluntarily, may be having an even larger effect.
Since retaking office, Trump has advanced a two-pronged immigration strategy: direct enforcement and a cheaper, voluntary departure program. Early indicators show the latter may be even more effective. In an op-ed in the New York Post, Andrew Arthur, the Resident Fellow in Law and Policy at the nonpartisan Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), wrote:
“DHS can’t arrest and deport 15.4 million illegal aliens, but if it simply enforces the law, many aliens will get the message and leave on their own — as hundreds of thousands apparently already have.”
DHS Secretary Kristi Noem rebranded Biden’s CBP One app into “CBP Home,” allowing migrants to notify authorities of their departure and claim a $1,000 stipend, a fraction of the $17,000 cost of forced removal.
The results are already showing up in labor data. The Washington Post noted:
“More than a million foreign-born workers have exited the workforce since March.”
Though the Post framed it as a “weakening labor supply,” it also noted a wage spike:
“Average hourly wages accelerated, rising by 0.4 percent over the month, to $36.24 in May, as earnings continue to beat inflation in a boost to workers’ spending power.”
CIS also pointed to a 773,000 drop in the immigrant population during Trump’s first four months, an early sign the policy is working.
“With fewer illegal immigrants, businesses have had to raise wages to attract workers.”
The strategy relies on credibility. With 207,000 deportations already logged and enforcement targeting employers, officials say deterrence is kicking in.
“Aliens will only leave if they believe Trump and [border czar Tom] Homan are serious about arrests, and employers know the feds are targeting shady businesses.”
Historical precedent supports the shift. “When President Dwight Eisenhower launched his deportation roundup in 1954, nearly 10 aliens left voluntarily for each one arrested,” Arthur noted.
Trump officials say they’re not just enforcing immigration law — they’re changing the calculus for those who broke it.
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