Over the course of three elections, President Donald Trump has reshaped America’s political landscape, according to a newly released analysis by The New York Times. Support for Trump began at the county level in 2016 — and has only grown stronger with each subsequent election.
The study found:
Donald J. Trump’s victory in 2024 was not an outlier.It was the culmination of continuous gains by Republicans in much of the country each time he has run for president, a sea of red that amounts to a flashing warning sign for a Democratic Party out of power and hoping for a comeback.The steady march to the right at the county level reveals not just the extent of the nation’s transformation in the Trump era but also the degree to which the United States now resembles two countries charging in opposite directions.
The Times’ map below illustrates the counties that shifted in one direction over the last three presidential elections which the authors call “triple-trending.” [Note: “Circle size is proportionate to county population.”]
Perhaps the most troubling sign for Democrats is Trump’s strength in Pennsylvania. While the map shows Democratic support holding in Dauphin County — home to Harrisburg — the areas surrounding Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are awash in red.
Trump’s strength in the border area of South Texas, where almost 84% of the total population is Hispanic, should be a red flag for the Democrats.
Another surprise was Trump’s dominance in Honolulu, Hawaii.
According to the Times, of the roughly 3,100 counties in the U.S., Trump increased the GOP’s share of the presidential vote in 1,433 — nearly half.
In contrast, Democrats expanded their share in just 57 counties over the same period.
The Times notes, “It is a staggering political achievement, especially considering that Mr. Trump was defeated in the second of those three races, in 2020.”
[I’ll say it was a staggering political achievement. At the risk of being labeled a conspiracy theorist, it makes one wonder how former President Joe Biden was able to win 81 million votes in 2020, doesn’t it?]
The map illustrates the political realignment that has taken place since Trump emerged on the national stage. The Times offers context to help make sense of the shift:
While roughly 8.1 million Americans of voting age live in triple-trending Democratic counties, about 42.7 million live in Republican ones.Even more ominous for the Democrats are the demographic and economic characteristics of these counties: The party’s sparse areas of growth are concentrated almost exclusively in America’s wealthiest and most educated pockets….Counties that have become steadily more Republican exist in some of the country’s bluest strongholds, including New York City, Philadelphia and Honolulu. Mr. Trump’s party is still losing in those places, but by significantly less.
The Times is right about that. In some cases, Trump cut the size of his 2020 losses in blue states in half. For example, in 2020, Trump lost New York to Biden by 23.2 points. In 2024, he narrowed the gap to 11.2 points. CBS News reported that Trump won 30% of the vote in New York City, the biggest margin for a Republican candidate since then-President Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Trump’s gains in urban areas trickled down across the eastern seaboard. In 2020, Trump lost New Jersey by 15.8 points. In 2024, the gap was just 5.5 points.
Similarly, Trump cut his 2020 loss of 16.9 points in Illinois to 9 points in 2024. And in California, he narrowed his 2020 loss of 29.2 points to 19.9 points.
Comparing 2024 election results with those from 2012, the Times found:
435 counties voted more Democratic in 2024 than did so in 2012, by an average improved margin of 8.8 percentage points.And 2,678 counties became more Republican, by an average of 13.3 percentage points. That’s six times as many counties moving toward the G.O.P. than toward the Democratic Party — and by a substantially wider margin.
The Times reported a “broad erosion” of Democratic support among working-class voters across all demographics and took a deep dive into the numbers. There was also a widespread decline in support for Democrats among men. Professor Jacobson wrote about this on Sunday.
The gist of their message is that the results of the past three presidential elections have upended long-held political assumptions.
Ben Tulchin, a pollster who worked on Senator Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaigns, told the Times that “the old political calculations for how Democrats can win elections were now obsolete.”
According to Tulchin, “The math doesn’t work. For years, the belief was Democrats have had demographic destiny on our side. Now, the inverse is true.”
Some Democrats believe that once Trump is off the ballot, Republicans will lose their advantage.
But Chris Kofinis, who served as chief of staff to former Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), essentially said ‘not so fast.’
He pointed out, “Trump is the symptom, not the disease. The disease is the fact that you have lost touch with a whole swath of voters that used to consistently vote Democratic.”
It turned out that voters are smarter than Democrats thought they were. Ultimately, despite the media’s elevation of Harris to rockstar status and the Democrats’ relentless fearmongering and gaslighting, voters overwhelmingly chose Trump.
They chose America First over America Last and common sense over insanity. Trump’s resounding victory was a collective shout of “Enough.”
Trump’s coalition has strengthened as the Democrats’ has weakened. A coalition consisting of well-educated and affluent citizens who are concentrated in large coastal cities will not win them many elections.
How did such a highly-educated, elite, and enlightened bunch not see this coming? And why are they still struggling for answers?
Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on LinkedIn or X.
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