If one looks beyond the standard mainstream media anti-Trump rhetoric, there are signs that President Donald Trump’s hard stance in dealing with China on issues related to trade and the fentanyl crisis are working.
To begin with, China’s manufacturing sector experienced its steepest contraction in 16 months in April 2025, with the official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropping to 49.0 from 50.5 in March-its lowest since December 2023 and below forecasts.
A PMI below 50 signals contraction, indicating that factories are producing less as demand falls, both domestically and, more importantly, from abroad due to the tariffs.The reading contrasts with Chinese officials’ conviction that the world’s second-largest economy is well placed to absorb the U.S. trade shock and suggests domestic demand remains weak as factory owners struggle to find alternative buyers overseas.Manufacturers had been front-loading outbound shipments in anticipation of the duties, but the arrival of the levies has called time on that strategy – putting pressure on policymakers to finally address rebalancing the economy….”The sharp drop in the PMIs likely overstates the impact of tariffs due to negative sentiment effects, but it still suggests that China’s economy is coming under pressure as external demand cools,” Zichun Huang, China Economist at Capital Economics, said. “Although the government is stepping up fiscal support, this is unlikely to fully offset the drag, and we expect the economy to expand just 3.5% this year.”
Perhaps in a gambit to initiate talks on tariff and trade, Beijing is now is exploring concessions on fentanyl trafficking to de-escalate tensions between the two countries.
Beijing is considering ways to address the Trump administration’s concerns over China’s role in the fentanyl trade, according to people familiar with the matter, potentially offering an off-ramp from hostilities to allow for trade talks to start.Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s security czar, Wang Xiaohong, in recent days has been inquiring about what the Trump team wants China to do when it comes to the chemical ingredients used to make fentanyl, the people said. Chinese companies produce large quantities of the chemicals known as “precursors.” These are sold over the internet, flowing from China to criminal groups in Mexico and elsewhere that produce fentanyl and traffic it into the U.S.
During his campaign, Trump linked China directly to the fentanyl crisis, which has claimed the lives of over 250,000 Americans since 2018…a=many of them young in in the prime of their lives.
It appears that Trump is open to considering the next move.
Trump has linked the U.S. trade war with China, which has roiled global markets and upended supply chains, to the fentanyl crisis killing large numbers of Americans.Washington says Chinese chemical manufacturers and exporters provide most precursor chemicals used by drug cartels to produce synthetic opioids, the cause of nearly 450,000 U.S. overdose deaths. China has long defended its tough drug laws and record of cracking down on smugglers, and says the U.S. must get a handle on its own addiction woes.Trump said on Wednesday he believed there was a “very good chance” his administration could do a deal with China, hours after Chinese President Xi Jinping called on officials to take action to adjust to changes in the international environment, without explicitly mentioning the United States.
I believe that the rate of success related to trade talks will be directly proportional to exactly how badly the current situation is destabilizing China and Xi’s regime. And, as Ed Morrissey of Hot Air notes, the end of the fentanyl pipeline would be a huge win.
This is still a dance, and China won’t easily concede its current advantages (and worse) in global trade. However, it does appear that they may be willing to finally ditch their fentanyl-precursors industry as one way to defend themselves from a damaging trade war, and that’s a pretty good sign.
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