Fully aware of the profound impact early and mail-in voting had on the outcome of the 2020 election, the Republican National Committee actively embraced both methods ahead of the 2024 election. Despite President Donald Trump’s preference for single day voting, the RNC launched an active campaign encouraging supporters to bank their votes early — efforts that played a significant role in securing Trump’s decisive victory.
Unfortunately, the GOP appeared to have forgotten that lesson heading into Tuesday’s special elections in Florida’s 1st and 6th congressional districts, as well as Wisconsin’s state Supreme Court race. They also seemed to overlook a critical reality: Donald Trump—whose presence on the ballot provided a boost to many down-ballot Republicans—was not running this time.
Although Republican candidates in Florida’s 1st and 6th congressional districts won by comfortable margins—14% and 15%, respectively—both races were in R+30 districts. Had the party approached these contests with the same urgency and enthusiasm shown ahead of November, the margins would likely have been wider.
The silver lining in Wisconsin was that voters overwhelmingly approved a constitutional amendment requiring a photo ID to cast a ballot—a clear win for the GOP’s election integrity platform.
But the Badger State also handed Republicans a major loss. The progressive candidate, Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford, defeated her conservative opponent, Waukesha County Circuit Judge Brad Schimel, in the state Supreme Court justice race by a whopping 10%.
Crawford’s decisive victory was all the more glorious for Democrats because Elon Musk had poured more than $20 million into the race via Musk-linked super PACs. He had also actively campaigned for Schimel, even hosting a Sunday evening town hall to stir up voter excitement.
According to the Brennan Center for Justice, spending in this contest topped $98 million, making it the most expensive judicial race in U.S. history, second only to Wisconsin’s 2023 state Supreme Court justice election.
As we heard every time this race was mentioned, the stakes were high. Crawford has vowed to redraw congressional districts in the state in such a way that Republicans will likely lose two House seats in the 2026 midterms.
HotAir’s David Strom provided some solace for Republicans:
Off-year, and especially non-November, elections are especially tough for Republicans. The majority are barely aware that an election is taking place, and the motivation to vote is much lower than in presidential years. This is true for both Democrats and Republicans, but Democrats have a huge built-in advantage despite this.A huge fraction of their voters are public employees and teachers’ union members, and for them, all these elections are existential. Controlling the levers of government is not just nice for them but directly tied to their pay and power. Winning these off-year elections gives them enormous – outsized – influence.
It should also be noted that money flowed into Wisconsin—and Florida as well—from all over the country, which might not have been the case if they had occurred during a regular election cycle.
Additionally, the Trump administration is currently rolling out an economic platform that has rattled financial markets. At the same time, a coordinated push by Democrats and legacy media to cast Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency as a threat to Social Security and Medicaid has damaged the Republican brand. However, once the uncertainty subsides and voters begin to see tangible results, the outlook is likely to improve.
Be that as it may—and at the risk of reading too much into three off-cycle elections—what does Schimel’s larger-than-expected loss in Wisconsin, combined with the GOP’s relative underperformance in ruby-red districts of a red state, suggest about the party’s ability to hold onto the House next November?
While the party in power typically loses seats in midterm elections, and 2026 was always going to be an uphill battle for Republicans, Tuesday’s results made one thing clear: Democrats are energized and more determined than ever to win, and they’ll stop at nothing to do so. To prevail, Republicans must match—and exceed—that intensity. The RNC, the Republican State Leadership Committee, and state-level GOP affiliates must double down on their ground game and embrace early voting with even greater commitment than they showed in 2024.
Fox News’ Brett Baier also helped shift the narrative with his interview featuring Elon Musk and his leadership team at DOGE. The segment significantly improved public perception of the department’s mission. It dispelled the caricature of unsupervised twenty-somethings wielding a buzzsaw through federal programs and instead highlighted a team of intelligent, capable, and highly accomplished professionals dedicated to eliminating fraud, cutting waste, and modernizing the outdated technology plaguing government operations. Republicans must shine a brighter light on these men and the critical work they’re doing.
Just as they did during the 2024 election cycle, Republicans must once again harness alternative media to deliver their message with unprecedented urgency. Barron Trump was onto something when he encouraged his father to appear on podcasts. Legacy media has been steadily losing credibility and viewership, while alternative platforms continue to grow in influence and reach.
Although Republican Congressman-elect Randy Fine ultimately won Florida’s 6th Congressional District by 15 points, his campaign got off to a sluggish start. Early complacency turned what should have been an easy win into a near nail-biter.
As on Tuesday, while Trump won’t be on the ballot next year, he must maintain an active presence on the campaign trail. His participation is crucial.
Republicans have a year and a half to get their act together—and the time to start is now.
Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on X or LinkedIn.
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