Red Alert: Lessons From Tuesday Elections the GOP Can’t Afford to Ignore
Democrats are energized and more determined than ever to win, and they’ll stop at nothing to do so. To prevail, Republicans must match—and exceed—that intensity.
Fully aware of the profound impact early and mail-in voting had on the outcome of the 2020 election, the Republican National Committee actively embraced both methods ahead of the 2024 election. Despite President Donald Trump’s preference for single day voting, the RNC launched an active campaign encouraging supporters to bank their votes early — efforts that played a significant role in securing Trump’s decisive victory.
Unfortunately, the GOP appeared to have forgotten that lesson heading into Tuesday’s special elections in Florida’s 1st and 6th congressional districts, as well as Wisconsin’s state Supreme Court race. They also seemed to overlook a critical reality: Donald Trump—whose presence on the ballot provided a boost to many down-ballot Republicans—was not running this time.
Although Republican candidates in Florida’s 1st and 6th congressional districts won by comfortable margins—14% and 15%, respectively—both races were in R+30 districts. Had the party approached these contests with the same urgency and enthusiasm shown ahead of November, the margins would likely have been wider.
The silver lining in Wisconsin was that voters overwhelmingly approved a constitutional amendment requiring a photo ID to cast a ballot—a clear win for the GOP’s election integrity platform.
But the Badger State also handed Republicans a major loss. The progressive candidate, Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford, defeated her conservative opponent, Waukesha County Circuit Judge Brad Schimel, in the state Supreme Court justice race by a whopping 10%.
Crawford’s decisive victory was all the more glorious for Democrats because Elon Musk had poured more than $20 million into the race via Musk-linked super PACs. He had also actively campaigned for Schimel, even hosting a Sunday evening town hall to stir up voter excitement.
Wisconsin beat the billionaire.
— Tim Walz (@Tim_Walz) April 2, 2025
According to the Brennan Center for Justice, spending in this contest topped $98 million, making it the most expensive judicial race in U.S. history, second only to Wisconsin’s 2023 state Supreme Court justice election.
As we heard every time this race was mentioned, the stakes were high. Crawford has vowed to redraw congressional districts in the state in such a way that Republicans will likely lose two House seats in the 2026 midterms.
HotAir’s David Strom provided some solace for Republicans:
Off-year, and especially non-November, elections are especially tough for Republicans. The majority are barely aware that an election is taking place, and the motivation to vote is much lower than in presidential years. This is true for both Democrats and Republicans, but Democrats have a huge built-in advantage despite this.
A huge fraction of their voters are public employees and teachers’ union members, and for them, all these elections are existential. Controlling the levers of government is not just nice for them but directly tied to their pay and power. Winning these off-year elections gives them enormous – outsized – influence.
It should also be noted that money flowed into Wisconsin—and Florida as well—from all over the country, which might not have been the case if they had occurred during a regular election cycle.
Additionally, the Trump administration is currently rolling out an economic platform that has rattled financial markets. At the same time, a coordinated push by Democrats and legacy media to cast Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency as a threat to Social Security and Medicaid has damaged the Republican brand. However, once the uncertainty subsides and voters begin to see tangible results, the outlook is likely to improve.
Be that as it may—and at the risk of reading too much into three off-cycle elections—what does Schimel’s larger-than-expected loss in Wisconsin, combined with the GOP’s relative underperformance in ruby-red districts of a red state, suggest about the party’s ability to hold onto the House next November?
While the party in power typically loses seats in midterm elections, and 2026 was always going to be an uphill battle for Republicans, Tuesday’s results made one thing clear: Democrats are energized and more determined than ever to win, and they’ll stop at nothing to do so. To prevail, Republicans must match—and exceed—that intensity. The RNC, the Republican State Leadership Committee, and state-level GOP affiliates must double down on their ground game and embrace early voting with even greater commitment than they showed in 2024.
Fox News’ Brett Baier also helped shift the narrative with his interview featuring Elon Musk and his leadership team at DOGE. The segment significantly improved public perception of the department’s mission. It dispelled the caricature of unsupervised twenty-somethings wielding a buzzsaw through federal programs and instead highlighted a team of intelligent, capable, and highly accomplished professionals dedicated to eliminating fraud, cutting waste, and modernizing the outdated technology plaguing government operations. Republicans must shine a brighter light on these men and the critical work they’re doing.
Just as they did during the 2024 election cycle, Republicans must once again harness alternative media to deliver their message with unprecedented urgency. Barron Trump was onto something when he encouraged his father to appear on podcasts. Legacy media has been steadily losing credibility and viewership, while alternative platforms continue to grow in influence and reach.
Although Republican Congressman-elect Randy Fine ultimately won Florida’s 6th Congressional District by 15 points, his campaign got off to a sluggish start. Early complacency turned what should have been an easy win into a near nail-biter.
As on Tuesday, while Trump won’t be on the ballot next year, he must maintain an active presence on the campaign trail. His participation is crucial.
Republicans have a year and a half to get their act together—and the time to start is now.
Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on X or LinkedIn.
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Comments
Keep in mind in Wisconsin that the margin was the same as the last special election for auprene court.
Republicans I believe also outperformed the last Court election by 20% … just the Dems did too
So the loss still stings, the chance to implement deeper election integrity is lost, but this is not a refer nein on Trump given that the performance is the same
Also … voter ID is a winner in outle Wisconsin during a blue election …. Every state should take note of that
This was an uphill battle once the Repubs kicked ass in November. Turnout wanes for the winners in these less publicized, less routine elections, meanwhile, hate votes pour in. Same thing happened to the blue side during Obama and Biden* terms.
*Not really Biden…his marionettes
Not to mention that Leftist majority on the WI Supreme Court likely will result in Court ordered redistricting eliminating two GOP districts AND finding Voter ID to be unconstitutional.
“Republicans have a year and a half to get their act together—and the time to start is now.”
Never underestimate the GOP’s ability to turn a victory into a defeat. Just look at the recent idiocy regarding proxy voting in the House.
There is real and important work to do that if not done, will result in the reversal of all the good Trump has done via executive orders, either now with judicial overreach, or in the first days of the next Democrat in the White House.
The RNC surprised us in November. Michael Whatley is a lot more effective than Ronna McDaniel. He knew what had to be done.
mail in ballots
rcv..rank choice voting is the next dem scheme
Yep….they want to win elections by calling the will of the people a game of Survivor (in other words, not who was most voted in but who was least voted out)
Bull. Preferential voting is the only fair system, and benefits us as much as them. It’s the only system that allows people to vote as they really prefer, and not have to worry about “wasting their vote”. The winner is the person a majority of voters said they preferred over any other viable candidate.
The ONLY fair system? Your black and white mentality is strange.
Yes, every other system is unfair.
And that shows why your views are generally nonsense, trapped between two extremes only, black and white.
Milhouse wants Democrats and leftists to win.
Preferential voting does that. It makes their cheating easier to hide as well as allowing them to flood the zone.
Always remember that Milhouse is here to demoralize us.
It’s too easy to cheat with it because Indy is much more powerful. Logic would dictate the market gets flooded with fake independents in a federal environment like that.
It’s impossible to cheat with it. People can vote for independents if they like, but unless one of them gets a genuine mass of support, in which case that person deserves to win, the vote will come down to the two major candidates, and whoever has the lower number on a voter’s ballot gets that vote. If there are ten candidates and someone puts a 9 next to the Republican and a 10 next to the Democrat, that’s a Republican vote and all the other numbers can be ignored.
But it means a genuine Republican can run against a RINO without splitting the vote and allowing the Democrat to win. It means Libertarian voters no longer have to worry that by voting Libertarian they’re electing a Democrat. And occasionally a minor party or independent candidate can actually get enough support to win fair and square.
Look at the Australian experience. Preferential voting is what allows the Liberal and National Parties to function as a permanent coalition while still running candidates against each other. And for most of two decades DLP preferences kept the Coalition in power. Yes, it does allow far-left lunatics to win the occasional seat, but only in places where they have genuine support and deserve to win, because the voters are as lunatic as they are.
Look at Australia for an example. There’s a virtual permanent leftist majority.
They took the people’s guns.
They interred the people during covid.
They set up racially based justice.
That’s what Milhouse wants for us.
Lesson learned from Tuesday’s election should be:
Don’t have Trump and Musk intervene in state elections. That will only galvanize the left and undecideds. The good news is that at least Musk will be leaving.
Lessons morons need to take on board isn’t that Republicans lost but that Democrats held on to their already in place majority in WI.
Although it’s interesting that this election was a referendum on Trump and Musk but strangely the Presidential election wasn’t a referendum on Democrats and their sexual perversions
“Don’t have Trump and Musk intervene in state elections.”
LOL. Now do Florida.
Weren’t you one that advised Trump and supporters before the election to be nice. Don’t quit your day job.
He doesn’t really set a good example.
What’s to worry? Trump is God’s chosen instrument on Earth, so whatever he (Trump) wills, must come to pass. Or so Trump seems to think.
To you, Trump is the devil himself. Your TDS is getting worse. You know as much about Trump as AOC and Schiff.
Strawmen are the weapon of choice for people who falsely claim to have voted for Trump (that then turn out to be ex-pats)
How do you know he didn’t vote for Trump? How does his living abroad change anything? Expatriates do vote, you know.
Yeah, we totally believe he voted for Tangerine Palpatine…
The narrow tunnel vision gets old fast.
The same way we know you didn’t.
“Or so Trump seems to think.”
Posted without a single shred of evidence.
You are underestimating the hatred many Florida Republicans and conservatives have for Fine.
This election was simply the lesser of two evils rather than a support of Fine or Trump.
I did not know he was unpopular in Florida. I know Ron DeSantis is not a fan.
The district from which Fine comes is heavily Republican. (As am I.)
In the past he has voted for shutting down UCF over an accounting error.
He is against free speech and has said that anyone who supports – merely supports – BDS should not be hired by the state. He got the legislature to pass such a measure. (please note – I am pro Israel, but I dislike shutting down speech simply because one disagrees with it.)
He removes comments from his Facebook page that disagree with him.
If you disagree with him, you are an anti-Semite. If you are Jewish and disagree with him, you are a Nazi collaborator.
He has a running feud with a school board member who is suing him. Feuds are always going to happen, but this goes beyond the norm. There are images of him hiding under a desk in his office in order to not be served with papers. Yet he calls others “cowards.”
He backed a family who claimed that their special needs child was tied in a chair and forced to wear a mask due to COVID. The police investigated and found that not only had the teachers not done any thing wrong, but the parents had fabricated the evidence. (There was video footage of how the teachers were securing the masks to the child.) Fine accused the teachers, the administration and the police of coverups with no basis at all.
His home was wrecked due to a hurricane and he got a waiver to move out of the district he was serving for a year. He is still in that home now and the powers that be did not remove him from the ballot.
He has a severely racist fight going on with a City Council member of Brevard County’s largest city. (This is not a case of being thinned skinned or just “playing the race card.” Fine brings up the man’s color and implies that he is incompetent because of his race. I don’t like the Councilperson at all, but Fine’s attacks make me more sympathetic to the Councilman.)
He was a member of BREC – the Brevard Republican Executive Committee – and drove people out who did not support him. BREC has not recovered and while the Democrats have organized, Fine keeps Republicans disorganized by his infighting.
There is an article about Fine in the Harvard newspaper just about how horrible a person he was in college. It is the same pattern he exhibits now.
Fine tries to be “Trump lite” without the intelligence or the personality.
The problem is that there is no one else to vote for. Fine has money coming in from the gambling industry in the state and has voted against any and all regulations on that industry. He simply outspends others.
Fine is simply out for Fine. He doesn’t care about the people but there is no other choice for voters.
PS – I was working on a blog that wrote an unflattering piece about Fine and he contacted the police to investigate who wrote the piece. Think about that for a moment.
The GOP did not particularly WANT to win these elections; they have proven time and again that they are willing to lose winnable slots because they hate Trump.
And anyone who thinks people were voting Republican rather than Trump in November need to buy a clue. Republicans are proving to be the same old losers they’ve been for 30 years.
you’re not wrong
the gop has found that they can sidle up to their communistnazi leaders and say look
Im a consensus builder ,,as they enact yet another lefty fiscal plan that sinks the middle class
and keep their power and our money
There should be a massive investigation in Wisconsin of political players, their judiciary, unions, election fraud, etc., and then where wrongdoers are identified, hang them.
Election integrity. Paging DOGE! Stat!
Progressives are always active, always. Trump will piss off some of his base with his actions in office, and he won’t have coat-tails in 2026, and none of the progressives will be persuaded to like Trump. Hating Trump is part of their very being.
We will probably lose the House in 2026 and likely the WH in 2028. We were just lucky the Dems ran terribly weak candidates in 2024.
Make the most of the time we have. And if Trump really wants to win, he’ll have to take a deep breath and ignore those nationwide injunctions. Following the law as Dems define it sure worked well for him in 2020 didn’t it?
What will have coattails is the economy, and that will be how any Republican candidate is judged.
Elon Musk is only relevant as an asset to the Republican side but even he can’t overcome the fact that people vote primarily on the economy.
Anyone know how states can draw Congressional district lines besides after the census results every ten years?
Can Wisconsin do it before the 2026 election cycle?
If the state supreme court finds that the map the legislature drew after the 2020 census was unlawful, then it can order the legislature to start over, or it can just impose its own map.
Also, I’m not aware of any reason why a state legislature can’t just decide to redraw the map in between censuses. It’s not the done thing, but I don’t know of any reason why it can’t be. But in Wisconsin’s case that wouldn’t be relevant because the Republicans control the legislature.
I think the Wisconsin election shows that the issue of abortion still has traction in elections where its availability depends to some extent on the outcome. The Democrats thought that supporting abortion through ballot initiatives would help them electorally. It turned out that it simply made it easier for pro-choice Republican women to vote for Republicans. In Wisconsin’s Supreme Court election, the issue of abortion was very much on the ballot as the court will make some important decisions about it.
I think it is tempting to see Musk as a problem for Republicans going forward but my guess is that he won’t be much of a factor in 2026. The Democrats hope is that the focus on Musk will help them recover their image as the party of working class Americans, portraying the Republicans as the party of cutting government spending for the needy to finance tax cuts for billionaires. While this approach may flatter the vanity of relatively privileged credentialed (post grad degrees) Democrat voters, the Democrats can not run away from the fact that for decades they have abandoned the interests of the working class in order to pursue luxury cultural issues including boys in girls sports, teaching radical gender ideology to small children, encouraging gender transitions for children, supporting the slaughter of Israeli civilians, and above all promoting victimhood over merit in giving out society’s rewards.
It is hard to miss the irony that wealthy liberals who made Musk very rich by subsidizing their purchase of expensive electric vehicles to promote climate change are now afraid to park their Teslas on city streets. I doubt that vandalizing Tesla dealerships will woo back the votes of communities that created a middle class life style through the production of gas fueled cars, made by American workers.
“It’s the economy stupid”
The stock market has been tumbling as a very direct reaction to tariff decisions and statements without inflation going down.
Whatever temptation to blame something else the economy will always be number one to voters.
Luckily there still is time to return to reverse course.
Elon Musk also will definitely be an asset for us in 2026 so he will be a factor.
“Additionally, the Trump administration is currently rolling out an economic platform that has rattled financial markets.”
We won two deep red seats while losing the swing state seat.
It is because of the economy, very little if anything else in the article is relevant.
The party in power is graded on the economy it is that simple.
If Turmp wants to pursue short term pain Republicans lose at the ballot box.
Ironically he was perfect for the economy in his first term.
However Clinton said it decades ago but it is still without doubt correct today
“It’s the economy stupid”
The lesson from the elections is that places that can swing/are close are going to swing when the party in power causes economic pain
Kamala lost because she was part of an administration that caused a lot of economic pain, and it could happen to the Republican side.
There are big elections coming up this November – Virginia and New Jersey. Control of both states is on the ballot.