H5N1 Bird Flu Strain Reported to be Another “Gain-of-Function” Virus
Back in 2022, during the early days of the “bird flu” pandemic, I wondered if the H5N1 strain of bird flu was a gain-of-function creation.
The reason for it was two-fold. One was the high kill ratio. While a new virus might have a high infection fatality rate, 100% fatality would only likely be achieved if the virus genetics were rearranged to target a host species.
The second reason was that the Chinese were reportedly experimenting with the H5N1 strain. Since 2019, we have all enjoyed the novel coronavirus they generated in their Wuhan labs.
While I may have been right about the gain-of-function (GOF), I was wrong about the laboratory. It turns out this frankenvirus might be a joint American and Dutch creation.
And, as with China, poor biosafety practices may have been a contributing factor.
“Proximal Origin of Epidemic Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b and Spread by Migratory Waterfowl” by Nicolas Hulscher, co-authored with John Leake and Peter A. McCullough, investigates the potential laboratory origins of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b, genotype B3.13, which has been causing outbreaks in various animal species and sporadic human infections.
The paper was published in Poultry, Fisheries & Wildlife Sciences in November 2024. The study suggests that this strain may have emerged from gain-of-function research conducted at two specific facilities: the USDA Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory (SEPRL) in Athens, Georgia, and the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
The authors start by looking at HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b [which is the initial strain that has morphed into the “bird flu” that I have been covering as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenze (HPAI) since 2022].
This original strain was first detected in the Netherlands in 2020, raising questions about its origins, particularly in light of prior gain-of-function experiments at these labs. It must be noted that the current pandemic cycle of H5N1 bird flu began in the fall of 2020 when a new strain emerged in Europe, so this timing aligns.
Genetic analysis links genotype B3.13 (another variant), which emerged in 2024, to genotype B1.2, detected in Georgia in January 2022. This new variant arose after serial passage experiments with H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 began in mallard ducks at SEPRL in April 2021. The first North American bird flu cases began being reported in late 2021, and poultry farms were reporting cases in early 2022.
The new study notes that genotype B1.2 was also found in a bottlenose dolphin in Florida in March 2022, indicating rapid adaptation across species. The NP gene of genotype B3.13, implicated in cattle outbreaks, likely originated from an avian influenza virus in mallard ducks, and mutations in recent human cases (e.g., PB2 E627K and PB2 M631L) suggest a connection to these experiments.
The paper argues that migratory waterfowl, particularly mallard ducks, may have facilitated the spread of this strain from laboratory leaks, given their role as natural reservoirs and their capacity to infect poultry and livestock globally.
The paper also cites evidence of biosafety lapses at BSL-3 labs like SEPRL and Erasmus, including a 5% to 15% chance of undetected H5N1 lab escapes in Rotterdam, as estimated by prior research.
In January 2014, the CDC experienced an inadvertent crosscontamination incident where a Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza (LPAI) A (H9N2) virus culture was contaminated with a HPAI A (H5N1) virus. This contaminated culture was subsequently shipped to the SEPRL in Athens, Georgia, but the issue wasn’t identified until May 2014, meaning that unrecognized H5N1 contamination could have been occurred for months.The contamination event revealed gaps in laboratory safety protocols and reporting mechanisms, underscoring the risk of H5N1 escape even within high-containment facilities such as SEPRL….These incidents underscore critical lapses in laboratory safety and oversight that can occur at BSL-3 laboratories such as the SEPRL and the Erasmus Medical Center, highlighting the significant risks associated with GOF research.
However, it’s important to note that the origins of this pandemic remain a subject of investigation. So, I will remain vigilant about new findings and reporting what I find.
But, given the evidence and track record here, it is clear that a hard-stop should be put to all gain-of-function research.
I will conclude with the full ethics lecture offered in “Jurassic Park” by character Ian Malcom:
Gee, the lack of humility before nature that’s being displayed here, uh… staggers me.I’ll tell you the problem with the scientific power that you’re using here, it didn’t require any discipline to attain it. You read what others had done and you took the next step. You didn’t earn the knowledge for yourselves, so you don’t take any responsibility for it. You stood on the shoulders of geniuses to accomplish something as fast as you could, and before you even knew what you had, you patented it, and packaged it, and slapped it on a plastic lunchbox, and now [bangs on the table] ..Your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could that they didn’t stop to think if they should.
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