GOP Uneasy as Special Election in Florida CD 6 Tightens
Voters in Florida’s 6th Congressional District, a Republican stronghold on Florida’s northeast coast, will head to the polls on Tuesday to elect a successor for the seat vacated by National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. In November, Waltz won reelection by a whopping 33-point margin and President Donald Trump won the district by 30 points.
Although Republican candidate Randy Fine is expected to eke out a win over his Democratic opponent Josh Weil, a new St. Pete Polls (for Florida Politics) survey shows Fine ahead by just 4 points, which falls within the poll’s margin of error.
A Polsmaps survey of the race released on Thursday night shows Fine with a more comfortable lead of 13 points.
Polling in special elections is often sparse and unreliable, but it is more useful for shaping narratives than predicting outcomes. However, it’s clear that Republicans are concerned about this race.
So much so, in fact, that on Thursday night, Trump called into a Fine tele-rally to prop up the candidate.
He told supporters, “We’re just a few days away from an all-important special election taking place in your state on Tuesday, April 1, and I’m asking you to get out and vote for a true American patriot, somebody that I’ve gotten to know very well, Randy Fine. … The whole country’s actually watching this one. It’s a very big one.”
He also dialed into a tele-rally for Republican candidate Jimmy Petronis, who is running for the seat vacated by former Rep. Matt Gaetz in Florida’s 1st Congressional District—where Petronis holds a commanding lead over his Democratic opponent, Gay Valimont.
Fine served four terms in the Florida state House and won a state Senate seat in November, making his victory in this Republican +30 district seem like a foregone conclusion. However, those expectations may have led to complacency.
The general consensus is that Fine has run a lackluster campaign. For starters, he has been outraised by a staggering 10-to-1 margin. CNN reported that Weil, a teacher, has “run a much more aggressive campaign, tying Fine to the Elon Musk-run Department of Government Efficiency and potential cuts to Medicaid and Social Security.”
According to a White House source, one of Trump’s close advisers recently urged Fine to “get his house in order and get on the airwaves.” Additionally, two sources told CNN that House GOP campaign chief Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC) and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) “each separately told Fine to ‘get his sh*t together.'”
CNN reached out to Hudson who said, “I’d rather him have gotten [his ads] up a few weeks earlier, but we’ve got lots of folks on the ground helping turn out the vote, so I’m confident.”
The outcome of this race is crucial for two key reasons. First, the Republican majority in the House is already razor-thin. The loss of this seat could put the passage of Trump’s agenda in question.
As we saw yesterday with Trump’s withdrawal of Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-NY) nomination for U.N. ambassador, every House seat matters.
Second, this special election is seen as a referendum on Trump’s presidency. If Weil comes even close to defeating Fine, it will be viewed as a sign of Trump’s weakness, growing disillusionment with his agenda, and evidence that he never truly secured a mandate.
It will also be regarded as a reflection of public opinion on Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, which has been making liberal heads explode. If possible, Musk has eclipsed Trump as Public Enemy Number One among the Democrats.
Most importantly, this race, along with several other special elections scheduled for Tuesday, is considered a bellwether for the upcoming midterms.
According to the Wall Street Journal:
Trump allies worry a weak showing in the Florida contest would be read—fairly or unfairly—as a referendum on the president’s record headed into the midterm elections in 2026, when control of the Senate and House are on the line. This year’s special House elections, along with other 2025 races, such as a state supreme court race in Wisconsin and the Virginia governor race, are set to be seen as indicators of how the electorate is feeling.
The Journal reports, “In early voting, Democrats have been running slightly ahead of Republicans, according to mail-in-voting data.” That doesn’t really tell us all that much, because many Republicans tend to wait until Election Day to cast their ballots.
Republicans have historically underperformed in off-cycle elections, and they must begin to pay more attention to them. It’s not enough to focus solely on getting out the vote for regular on-cycle elections. Following their significant loss in November, Democrats are energized. With so much at stake, Republicans cannot afford to relinquish their momentum.
Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on X or LinkedIn.
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