GOP Uneasy as Special Election in Florida CD 6 Tightens
“Republicans have been losing special elections all over the country — even red districts in Iowa & Pennsylvania. Democrats are fired up.”
Voters in Florida’s 6th Congressional District, a Republican stronghold on Florida’s northeast coast, will head to the polls on Tuesday to elect a successor for the seat vacated by National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. In November, Waltz won reelection by a whopping 33-point margin and President Donald Trump won the district by 30 points.
Although Republican candidate Randy Fine is expected to eke out a win over his Democratic opponent Josh Weil, a new St. Pete Polls (for Florida Politics) survey shows Fine ahead by just 4 points, which falls within the poll’s margin of error.
.@StPetePolls survey of FL CD 6 Special Election:
—@VoteRandyFine 48%
—@JoshWeilFL6 44%https://t.co/eNxuXoQN2D#FlaPol pic.twitter.com/OlbbZcWTh5— Peter Schorsch (@PeterSchorschFL) March 26, 2025
A Polsmaps survey of the race released on Thursday night shows Fine with a more comfortable lead of 13 points.
Florida Special Election Predictions (portions of some counties not included in the districts):
FL-01 (Panhandle)
Jimmy Patronis (R) – 68.1%
Gay Valimont (D) – 31.3%FL-06 (North Central Florida)
Randy Fine (R) – 55.3%
Joshua Weil (D) – 42.1%Patronis is perfect, Randy
. pic.twitter.com/A0W6fUUz3n
— polsmaps (@polsmaps) March 28, 2025
Polling in special elections is often sparse and unreliable, but it is more useful for shaping narratives than predicting outcomes. However, it’s clear that Republicans are concerned about this race.
So much so, in fact, that on Thursday night, Trump called into a Fine tele-rally to prop up the candidate.
He told supporters, “We’re just a few days away from an all-important special election taking place in your state on Tuesday, April 1, and I’m asking you to get out and vote for a true American patriot, somebody that I’ve gotten to know very well, Randy Fine. … The whole country’s actually watching this one. It’s a very big one.”
He also dialed into a tele-rally for Republican candidate Jimmy Petronis, who is running for the seat vacated by former Rep. Matt Gaetz in Florida’s 1st Congressional District—where Petronis holds a commanding lead over his Democratic opponent, Gay Valimont.
BIG NEWS!
Join a tele-rally TONIGHT with special guests me and President Trump to help us GET OUT THE VOTE!
Just call 833-380-0653 at 6:30 PM EST to join – it's that easy!
This is your chance to hear directly from me and President Trump what is at stake this election and why… pic.twitter.com/9ghUNQwlyt
— Senator Randy Fine (@VoteRandyFine) March 27, 2025
The fact that Trump has to take time out of his day for a tele rally in an R+30 district tells you how bad of a choice Randy Fine was. pic.twitter.com/33EdYPkJrU
— Long Monkeypox (@podiatristdon) March 27, 2025
Fine served four terms in the Florida state House and won a state Senate seat in November, making his victory in this Republican +30 district seem like a foregone conclusion. However, those expectations may have led to complacency.
The general consensus is that Fine has run a lackluster campaign. For starters, he has been outraised by a staggering 10-to-1 margin. CNN reported that Weil, a teacher, has “run a much more aggressive campaign, tying Fine to the Elon Musk-run Department of Government Efficiency and potential cuts to Medicaid and Social Security.”
According to a White House source, one of Trump’s close advisers recently urged Fine to “get his house in order and get on the airwaves.” Additionally, two sources told CNN that House GOP campaign chief Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC) and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) “each separately told Fine to ‘get his sh*t together.'”
CNN reached out to Hudson who said, “I’d rather him have gotten [his ads] up a few weeks earlier, but we’ve got lots of folks on the ground helping turn out the vote, so I’m confident.”
The outcome of this race is crucial for two key reasons. First, the Republican majority in the House is already razor-thin. The loss of this seat could put the passage of Trump’s agenda in question.
As we saw yesterday with Trump’s withdrawal of Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-NY) nomination for U.N. ambassador, every House seat matters.
Second, this special election is seen as a referendum on Trump’s presidency. If Weil comes even close to defeating Fine, it will be viewed as a sign of Trump’s weakness, growing disillusionment with his agenda, and evidence that he never truly secured a mandate.
It will also be regarded as a reflection of public opinion on Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, which has been making liberal heads explode. If possible, Musk has eclipsed Trump as Public Enemy Number One among the Democrats.
Most importantly, this race, along with several other special elections scheduled for Tuesday, is considered a bellwether for the upcoming midterms.
According to the Wall Street Journal:
Trump allies worry a weak showing in the Florida contest would be read—fairly or unfairly—as a referendum on the president’s record headed into the midterm elections in 2026, when control of the Senate and House are on the line. This year’s special House elections, along with other 2025 races, such as a state supreme court race in Wisconsin and the Virginia governor race, are set to be seen as indicators of how the electorate is feeling.
The Journal reports, “In early voting, Democrats have been running slightly ahead of Republicans, according to mail-in-voting data.” That doesn’t really tell us all that much, because many Republicans tend to wait until Election Day to cast their ballots.
There is a special house race in Florida and that house race is for the seat of Mike Waltz.
There has been $10 million pumped into that house race. Even though that is a Republican +20 district.
Democrats are fundraising off the fact that if they can flip that house race, they…
— Insurrection Barbie (@DefiyantlyFree) March 27, 2025
Republicans have historically underperformed in off-cycle elections, and they must begin to pay more attention to them. It’s not enough to focus solely on getting out the vote for regular on-cycle elections. Following their significant loss in November, Democrats are energized. With so much at stake, Republicans cannot afford to relinquish their momentum.
I’m going to be honest with you, even if you don’t want to hear it:
Republicans have been losing special elections all over the country — even red districts in Iowa & Pennsylvania.
Democrats are fired up.
Unless we begin focusing on ground game, we will lose 2025 & 2026.
— ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) March 27, 2025
Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on X or LinkedIn.
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Comments
Glad we’re not testing notion that “Stefanik’s seat is totally safe and a sure thing®” and at the same time talking about rigged elections and Dominion voting machines.
Hochul was playing games and she could have delayed the special election until Nov 2026 if Stefanik had resigned. Can’t take that risk.
She couldn’t have delayed it that long. We were only talking about a few months at most. But that’s way too long, and there was no certainty, so she had no guidance on when best to time her resignation. The final realization was that there was no good time for her seat to be vacant.
Dems are going insane over their recent loss, as shown by the firebombings, shootings, mass Tesla owner doxing and death threats. At least one Lefty cartoonist I’ve followed for years (Devil’s Panties) has gone all-out pro-violence.
If any non-Lefties are expecting The Left to be discouraged and stay home rather than vote, vote early, vote often, and vote their dead relatives’ absentee ballots – think again.
If you want on your govt sanity, fiscal responsability, and an end to digging the deficit hole we’re all the way to China – do your part and vote.
the fire bombings etc are working to their advantage
how many suckers thought that by voting for fjb in 2020 that the cities would clam down etc!!!?!!?!?!?
fear is a HUGE factor in swaying votes towards your agenda
trump only won 2024 thanks to govs who sent illegals into dem territory
THENNNNN blcks got “active for trump” b/c “THEIR” money was being diverted to the illegals
not to mention the gang takeover from blks to brown
It’s sad that throughout this whole article not a single reason is presented why I should prefer one candidate over another other than the color of his team jersey. This is how we end up with RINO infestations. Maybe some commenter can actually tell me something about Randy Fine that would persuade me to ship a few campaign dollars his way. Otherwise, thanks, but you can’t bullshit an old constituent of Weld, Romney, and McCain.
Agreed. That Randy Fine guy looks like a slime ball. I would vote for him, but he gives off a vibe of laziness and entitlement.
But I will always say: Democrat hatred for Republicans greatly exceed the outcomes of any policy they support.
True. He is fat and therefore looks lazy. Even if he wins, he will be a target for a primary next year.
When you have narrow margins in the House and need every vote, the color of the team jersey is all that matters. When the White House is occupied by someone on the other team, the individual member matters more than it does right now. Today, numbers are all that count.
So that tomorrow, you can bend over and spread ’em when they vote like Scott Brown and John McCain.
The biggest question is WHY did Trump select active Congressmen to serve in other positions when there were good people out of Congress? He has only himself to blame. The second thing is Republican complacency. The turnout in PA was about 28%, which is why the Rs lost that seat.
we really dont know how many gop sat it out
thats the msm telling us that to COVER UP FOR THEIR MAIL IN BALLOT agenda
True dat. Yet, the man has launched so many brilliant blitzkrieg initiatives in a single quarter that a thud or two probably cannot be avoided. At least this one hasn’t been critical… so far.
Money in presidential elections produces diminishing returns. But, the importance of money in these smaller races, to include special House elections like this, cannot be overstated. I’m afraid it is possible to buy a House seat particularly when the opponent isn’t well known or well-liked among the people who do know him and Fine sounds like this may be the category he finds himself in. Moving to a more populist electorate makes sense when you have a high-turnout national election. But, in low-turnout elections where campaign ads (largely financed by ‘the elite’) make a big difference and lo-pro voters don’t turn out is a recipe for failure and disappointment.
It’s more than that. Lots of people don’t even know that special elections are taking place. There is usually no automatic notification by the County elections office like there is in regular elections. If someone doesn’t watch TV (as many on our side no longer do), then you never even know there is an election. That is why billboards along the road might be the best form of advertising for these specials.
People on this site have no idea how much of a despicable politician and person Randy Fine is.
He is the selection of “BREC,” which is the “Brevard Republican Executive Committee,” and a select group of people who demand Republicans vote for the person they select. (They even have a “loyalty” pledge where in order to even join BREC, you have to swear to vote for their candidates.)
Fine has had a long, non-productive running battle with the County School Board and one member in particular. He also has a running battle with the leaders of the largest city in Brevard County.
As a state senator, Fine did not live in the district in which he lived as required by law.
He restricts comments on his official Facebook page.
He supported City Council members who were investigated by the FDLE and found to be acting illegally in taking bribes of drugs and women. The FDLE prosecuted and convicted the man making the bribes in exchange for statements by the crooked Council members.
He has been seen cowering under a desk to avoid service of a lawsuit.
He attacks anyone who disagrees with him as being an anti-Semite.
I lived in Fine’s district for years, and always undervoted the election.
Fine was a horrible selection by Trump.
He’s a big boy
A little too big.
He probably wasn’t selected by Trump, but by the local GOP apparatus. Special elections are often done that way.
been warning about this since the hussein admin
the small towns are ripe for lefty takeover
then the supported that with more illegals and then of course the
2020 lefty military styled win with their willingness to fight in the streets and rig the elections and dare you to challenge that….
mail in ballots is the lock they needed..with their pr campaigns screaming
but trump has voted by mail
or
what about the military
and lets not forget their victimhood for life
poc cant make it to the polls so you are racistttttt if you are against mail in voting
One thing that could flip the small towns left is if DOGE is successful at rooting out Social Security fraud. There must be millions of rural people who died years ago and are buried behind the barn, and are still collecting SS every month. Perhaps tens of millions. If the local Doc is in on the scam, they are probably also billing Medicare every month. They are probably voting by mail too. If these people are found out, the official population could go down by tens of millions. SS fraud could be sustaining lots of small towns – allowing them to exist at all.
Side note – I wonder how many people died of COVID and are still collecting Social Security?
lets not be fooled by the latest rino/msm thoughts:
we really dont know how many gop sat it out ( elections)
thats the msm telling us that to COVER UP FOR THEIR MAIL IN BALLOT agenda
Dems on the local level are highly motivated by their hatred of Trump. For them to be out of power is equivalent to them being out of oxygen or blood. On the other hand GOPers vote and if they win then that’s it, we go back to living normal lives like normal people. Dems not so much, they know how to win and intend to win.
Been getting lots of mail pieces for Fine/Weil. Not a lot of publicity in the news that Tuesday is election day. I’m concerned this will turn out like the recent PA election where the majority of the R’s didn’t even show up.
Turnout for these has not been good
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