The only way this capitulation in Gaza makes sense is if there is a side deal

Israel Iran Trump Netanyahu

The terms of the hostage deal suck, for reasons argued all day and will be argued well into the future. It’s inexplicable based on what has been revealed.

Here is the take I had tonight, which I readily admit could be wishful thinking:

The only way this capitulation in Gaza makes sense is if there is a side deal. Trump said he wanted two things done before he took office – Lebanon and Gaza, so he could turn his attention to expanding the Abraham Accords. They are both done (even if temporarily) on terms that are not great for Israel. The death cults (Hezb and Hamas/PIJ) still pose some threat to Israelis, but only Iran poses an existential threat to Israel. I’m hoping – probably wishful thinking – that those Leb/Gaza deals were the cost of gaining Trump admin support for Israel taking out Iran’s nuke program, which also would advance Trump’s broader Abraham Accords plans.

That was in reaction to this take by Hillel Fuld:

Here’s my (very sad) prediction.Unless there is something about this deal that is beyond what we know, meaning if there is no more than meets the eye, and Bibi agreed to this without some sort of incentive from Trump, this will be the end of Bibi.What the judicial reform could not do, and what COVID could not do, and what the war could not do, this deal will do.No way Bibi survives this unless there is something very significant that we don’t know about.Whether it’s normalization with Saudi Arabia, some huge monetary or military incentive, or something else, if there is nothing on the table and Netanyahu just agreed to this because he had to, the end of the Netanyahu era is near.Worth mentioning that the people who have been protesting against Bibi for years and most recently, they’ve been calling to end the war, they’re strangely silent today… Just sayin.

Tags: Benjamin Netanyahu, Gaza - 2023 War, Israel, Trump Foreign Policy

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