The GOP’s Odds of Keeping the House are Improving by the Minute

The GOP’s Odds of Keeping the House are Improving by the Minute

Despite the Democrats’ relentless persecution of President-elect Donald Trump, and the pundits’ insistence that the presidential race was neck and neck, he won a decisive and indisputable victory over Vice President Kamala Harris. Although we do not know the size of the Republican majority in the Senate, we know they will control it. The fate of the House of Representatives, however, remains far less clear. It may take days or even longer to determine which party will ultimately control the lower chamber. 

As of this writing, the GOP has flipped five House seats and, based on CNN data, officially holds 204 seats. At a minimum, Republican candidates must win 14 additional races to reach the 218-seat threshold necessary to maintain their majority. So far, Democratic candidates have flipped two seats, bringing their current total to 182. Both parties anxiously await the outcomes of the 49 still-undecided races.

Although the numbers change almost by the minute, a 9:06 a.m. update at Decision Desk HQ put the Republicans’ chances of winning the House (218-217) at 57.9% vs. 42.1% for the Democrats. This was actually a slight drop from earlier projections.

Republicans now have a 61% chance of keeping the House, up from 38% just an hour ago.

DDHQ predicts a 219-216 Republican majority.

We got the Republican trifecta! This is incredible! pic.twitter.com/HY54BDdBfD

— Han Shawnity 🇺🇸 (@HanShawnity) November 6, 2024

However, by 11 a.m., their forecast had improved significantly. DDHQ was now predicting the GOP had a 78.9% chance of winning the House by a margin of 220-215.

At the same time, the Wall Street Journal published an article titled, “Republicans Poised to Keep Control of House After Winning Senate.” The piece noted that heading into Election Day, control of the House had been seen as a toss-up. “But by Wednesday morning … the GOP had blocked some of Democrats’ pathways to victory, although dozens of races remained too close to call.”

At 11:30 a.m., DDHQ projected Republican challenger Ryan Mackenzie had defeated Democratic incumbent Susan Wild in the fight to represent Pennsylvania’s Seventh Congressional District.

Decision Desk HQ projects Ryan Mackenzie (R) wins the US House election in Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district.#DecisionMade: 11:30 AM EDT

Follow live results here:https://t.co/fW94J01P6X pic.twitter.com/mXiR3pwbZJ

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 6, 2024

Please be aware that the number of seats under each party’s control varies among websites. CNN, as mentioned, reports that Republicans have won 204 seats so far while RealClearPolitics puts the number at just 190. More confusing still, the Wall Street Journal pegs it at 198. One reason is that each media outlet updates their data at different times.

But, bigger than that, is that websites vary in the way they categorize results.

To illustrate that point, three House Republican candidates in Alabama’s 3rd, 4th, 5th congressional districts ran unopposed and naturally won 100% of the vote. Because those results are not yet “official,” RealClearPolitics does not include them in their total of Republican seats “won.” CNN, understandably, includes these contests in their “won” category.

By far, the most critical races to watch are the aforementioned 49 that are still undecided. In some cases, the margins are razor thin. Or else, such as in the case of Arizona, there are just too many uncounted ballots outstanding to determine a clear winner. In AZ-02, for instance, although the Republican leads by a comfortable margin of 53.6 to 46.4, only 66% of the vote has been counted.

Moreover, both reasons might apply. As in the case of AZ-01, RCP reports that a mere 62% of the vote has been counted and the race is close. The Republican candidate leads by a margin of 50.8 to 49.2.

In California, where the polls closed at 11 p.m. eastern standard time, 18 House races remain undecided. In many of these districts, roughly half of the ballots have been counted. In others, the candidates are separated by less than one point. Those are the races that will take the longest to resolve.

It’s hard to overstate how important a House majority is for Republicans. It will prevent the Democrats from blocking Trump’s agenda. It will also stop the endless investigations and the impeachments that defined the last two years of Trump’s first term.

Stay tuned.

Elizabeth writes commentary for The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation and a member of the Editorial Board at The Sixteenth Council, a London think tank. Please follow Elizabeth on X or LinkedIn.

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