Republicans in Danger of Losing Two Iowa House Seats
Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (1-IA) and Zach Nunn (3-IA) could lose their seats tomorrow.
I’ve been skeptical of polls since 2016, but hey, this seems noteworthy since Republicans have a slim House majority, 220 to 212, with three vacancies.
Republicans could lose two Iowa House seats. From Fox News:
Democrats have the upper hand in the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts, while Republicans remain ahead among voters in the 2nd and 4th Districts, according to a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll.
In the 1st Congressional District, 53% of respondents said they preferred the Democratic candidate, while 37% said they would vote or have already voted for the Republican.
Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan, therefore, has a 16-point lead over Republican incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in their 2022 rematch contest.
Miller-Meeks, representing the 1st Congressional District, defeated Bohannan in 2020 by seven points in 2022.
She defeated Rita Hart in 2020 by six points.
Cook Political changed the race to toss-up on October 4. However, the organization put the race at R +3 in March.
The 3rd Congressional District is slightly closer:
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows 48% of voters in the third congressional district prefer the Democratic candidate, while 41% said they voted or will vote for the Republican. Democratic challenger Lanon Baccam has a 7-point lead ahead of Republican incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn.
“We are confident Representatives Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks will win because they have delivered strong results for their communities,” National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) spokesman Mike Marinella told Fox News Digital. “This poll is a clear outlier, as voters are well aware that career political activist Lanon Baccam and radical liberal Christina Bohannan are too out of touch for Iowa.”
Current GOP Rep. Zach Nunn barely defeated then-Rep. Cindy Axne, 50.3% to 49.6%, in 2022.
Cook Political also changed the race from Lean R to Toss-up in October and had it at R +3 in March.
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Comments
the left took off any punishment for stealing as evidenced by their anything under $1k is not theft
so why would we pretend that they arent stealing this country away from good!
they are
There is no such thing as “anything under $1k is not theft”. It’s made up.
Maybe Ohio should send some of its new immigrants since the last presidential election to Iowa. Not only Haitians from Springfield, but Mauritanians from Lockland, a tiny suburb of Cincinnati. Odd how Red Ohio has had at least two communities overwhelmed by illegals (the difference between legal and illegal being a matter of paperwork). Iowa apparently hasn’t irritated Democrat Washington as badly as we have.
Ohhh Man I was raised right across the creek from Lockland in Reading, Lockland is not a wealthy town. It was actually considered the other side, of the other side of the tracks, for Reading people up on the hill. Demographically that whole area has changed drastically since 1989 when I left. I havent been through there in a number of years but Lockland and Reading were always considered towns of churches and bars. Having 6000 Muslims move into a town of primarily Catholic, Protestant, Baptist, and Jehovah’s witness has to be going over like a lead balloon.
House elections are very, very strange things. If you look back at them over the last 60+ years, you’ll find PLENTY of instances when the party of the winning presidential candidate loses seats in the House, sometimes a significant number of seats. When Trump won in ’16, the GOP House majority lost 6-seats. 4-years later, Biden ‘wins’ the White House but the Dems, who were then in the majority, lost 13-House seats. The only president I can think of who added House seats in years he won election and re-election was Obama. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the GOP loses the House even if Trump wins convincingly. This of course is horrible because the Dems will Impeach him as quickly as possible and will prevent Trump from enacting any kind of enduring change to government.
Reagan earned more House seats during his election and re-election as well. Like Obama, he had lost a good number of seats in the mid term election of his first term.
That’s true. It highlights another dynamic in House elections that exists today that didn’t exist 30+ years ago: Republicans holding a majority in the House. From the late 1940s until 1994, the GOP had never been in the majority, and for much of that time, wasn’t even close. There would be 40+ seat swings in the 60s & 70s and the GOP still wasn’t even win a majority, that’s how far behind the Dems they trailed in seat counts. While there were big swings, the outcome was still always very predictable: the Dems would hold the House.
Today – probably due to Gerrymandering and some other issues – picking up or losing 5-seats and easily swing the majority, which makes House elections even less predictable.
Add more frequently changing the boundaries and composition of the CD. Example here in Alabama we had to draw a second ‘majority minority’ CD for the ’24 election that didn’t exist in ’22. Every CD in Bama had substantial changes three in particular had multiple counties flip around to different CD.
There are a few other States where the CD were redrawn from ’22. With an already tight HoR those seats can make a big difference between keeping and losing control of the HoR.
Over a longer term this is absolutely false. In only 5 cases since 1920 has the party winning the White House lost seats in the House.
https://ballotpedia.org/Results_of_U.S._House_elections_in_presidential_election_years,_1920-2020#Elections_where_the_winning_presidential_candidate's_party_lost_seats_in_the_House
I said, ‘you’ll find PLENTY of instances when the party of the winning presidential candidate loses seats in the House.’ You say, ‘that’s not true.’ and then point to an article where it says it’s happened no less than 5x since 1960. 🤔
Remember the Big Red Wave of 2022? Me neither.
The funny thing about House races they tend totie to the WH.
It looks like Trump could face the same thing he faced with Paul Ryan in 2016. No matter what he proposed he was met with indifference or outright rejection from the House. That was when he resorted to EOs which is why Biden could undo everything he had done at the border with the stroke of a pen.
Absolutely untrue.
While not every House candidate, even incumbents, of the party winning the White House wins, there are only five elections in the last century where the party winning the White House lost seats (but not necessarily control) of the House.
https://ballotpedia.org/Results_of_U.S._House_elections_in_presidential_election_years,_1920-2020#Elections_where_the_winning_presidential_candidate's_party_lost_seats_in_the_House
Scary, they have Harris ahead by 3 in Iowa poll
Again polls
But what the hell idiots
Maybe another reason for the crazy Selzer poll….give cover to the down ballot races by showing Trump behind?
Miller-Meeks, representing the 1st Congressional District, defeated Bohannan in 2020 by seven points in 2022.
Say what?
the left has already led the way in dictatorial actions aka EO actions
and so then all potus are invoking this
but it is in fact an action of the left blessed by the scotus
its too bad this has been allowed
Say what?!?
Or maybe it’s just that after a long four years of a puppet Biden presidency, being named Marianette is a political liability.
What’s driving a lot of Republicans and Independents to vote Democrat is Iowa’s law that bans almost all abortions after six weeks.
What kind of sad sack losers do they have to be under the totally inept pedo joe and the ho regime’s failing economy, loss of prestige in the world and men pretending to be women being given legitimacy?
This election should have been a cake walk for any half competent candidate.